Bitcoin is crashing, altcoins are crashing, the world is collapsing, everybody panic! Blood is in the streets for Bitcoin and this is the time to open up your wallets to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Almost like a small gift before Christmas...
Moments like these test your ability to be emotionless as you lose money rapidly and watch your paper gains evaporate. There is no other way to feel those emotions aside from extreme scenarios like these as test trading or theoretical questions rarely reveal the truth of how you will actually respond. If you feel fear, or frustration, or anger, or depression when price collapses like this, try and shift that feeling to excitement (contained of course, logical only). If you can't, then either your position size is too large or you should slow the frequency at which you check Bitcoin's price.
Unfortunately, this particular correction bounced back up prior to my limit order executing. This is another test in emotions because this will happen to you countless times and it is very easy to FOMO with price. I've found that it is generally better to remain adamant and miss an opportunity rather than to FOMO and have price sink back below your limit and have regret over not sticking to your guns. We'll see if another opportunity arises for my limit to fill.
Bitcoin dominance has begun creeping up just a little bit, although it's still relatively flat overall since my last video (given it's only been a few hours). I will continue to monitor this closely as we potentially see increased volatility over the weekend.
What are your thoughts about this recent panic selling? Do you see Bitcoin going lower or was this the correction it needed before it starts rising again? I tend to think there is more blood to come, but I've been like that for a while so take what I say with a grain of salt! Thanks for watching / reading.
Great content!
I'm gonna share my strategy when BTC tanks like this:
Move altcoins for BTC right before the fall so you keep your portifolio stable in terms of bitcoin and surf up with it eventually,
Remember: surf it up and when it stabilizes the first altcoins to move up right after are Litecoin, BCH, Dash and so on.
After that go back to your former positions in other alts.
Doing this you'll freeze your BTC during the fall and get the run up when altcoins go up.
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Well, it's nice to say 'move altcoins for BTC right before fall' but no one can predict such falls. But yes, I agree with the notion in general - is why I recommended BTC over altcoins in previous video given the fact that I suspected market to fall soon. It's nice when the market proves you right so quickly!
Alts don't tend to catch up, from my experience, until Bitcoin slows down (in either direction) so should be interesting to see if Bitcoin bounces back or has a sustained period of time of trading at lower prices. I'll be monitoring the situation closely, but for Bitcoin is likely the superior play when everyone is panicking. Thank you for the comment.
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Any reason you don't use a USDT type coin to improve your bitcoin before its run back?
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Listening to this video again just to calm me down , your video makes me not stress over this , really therapeutic honestly . Thank you ang good job
REPLY
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Awesome content! wish you would make more videos!
I like the emotional-disconnection in your videos.
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I'm bleeding pretty bad lol. Bought 10 LTC few days ago at $360. Now it's $280. Lol. I seriously laugh at it. I used Coinbase and bank transfer so I don't even have them yet lol... It's part of the game. I have no plans to sell until January so I won't worry about taxes until 2019... Ever will be alright.
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Beginner tip for this is rather than exposing yourself to a market all at once is to average in over a few days/weeks. Also, don't use Coinbase to buy mass amounts of currencies, the fees are awful and you're better off waiting for the money transfer to GDAX.
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Thanks. I'm definitely new and my emotions got the best of me.
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Yeah that's painful - is why I am generally cautious when market becomes inflated like this and keep some in cash just so I don't have to lose sleep at night (which, for the record, I slept very well). Best of luck!
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How many millions of dollars of bitcoin would I need to manipulate? Would 40 bitcoin be enough? Or do I need like at least 1,000 bitcoin?
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Some people have been mentioning how I talked about a fairly low amount (a few millions) to manipulate Bitcoin so figure here might be a good place to clarify. It becomes easier to manipulate Bitcoin during sell offs and pumps because the order book tends to become thinner, which is the opportune situation for wealthy individuals (as proven with the Bitcoin Cash pump when it was listed on GDAX). 40 Bitcoin would probably be enough to do some damage if you used it properly while order books were relatively thin. But the big players tend to have over 100 plus an equally sizable amount in cash.
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Crypto market is not that huge compared to stocks or Forex. Even 40.000.000 $ can turn it all red or green. Besides there are a lot of small not institutional investors who are very easy to panic-sell or FOMO-buy. Once the crypto market gets mature and bigger in volume it will become less volatile. But the time to strike big is now.
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Really enjoy watching the videos and learning how the whole currency trading dynamic works. I agree completely that emotion drives the broad market, and that manipulation will occur with thin trading.
Do you think the ETFs recently added for trading will affect the 'thin' manipulation? If nothing else, would it not draw attention of regulators and potential sanction?
Thanks again for the content.
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@smartbot tip @cryptovestor 20
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Σ$$$ Tipped @cryptovestor
Σ20 SMART! Comment@smartbot helpto claim. Currently the price of SmartCash in the market is$0.137 USDperSMART. Current value of the tip is$2.74 USD. To find out more about SmartCash, please visit https://smartcash.cc.Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
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It's hard to say - I think it depends on who the primary buyers of such an ETF are: Retail or Institutional? Naturally institutional investors are always going to be a huge chunk, but there are cases where retail ownership goes fairly high and if that happens, manipulation would still likely be fairly easy. If it's mostly institutional, then they tend to have stronger hands and it would be difficult to manipulate the spot market as easily.
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Great video as always. It's hard to predict how low this dip will go, but I tend to think that the crypto space will likely have a decent pump in the aftermath of Christmas and any current losses may very well quickly be undone in a short period of time. Man this space is fast paced and exciting, a literal financial roller-coaster ride!
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Much appreciated upvote @tamim, you legend you!
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Funny enough, February tends to be a bad month for crypto kind of like October is for stocks. Shouldn't really matter as there should NEVER be seasonality in prices, but given this is dumb money I wouldn't be surprised if what you say comes to pass.
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Any idea as to why Ripple is flourishing in this market? I assume people are using it as a hedge from the uncertainty that is BTC/ETH/LTC/BCH.
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Ripple is different from other cryptos in many ways. It is got good very good chances to be the fuel of interbank wire transfers to replace 40-years old SWIFT system which is a) slow; b) expensive c) obsolete. If that happens, imagine what value will ripple have.
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Right after BCC went up on Coinbase I saw some top comments speculating on r/cryptocurrency that Ripple would go up on Coinbase next. I don't know how widespread that meme was.
Personally (total noob here) I bought Ripple a few days ago because I heard it was a centralized currency "made by the banks". While that sounds awful to me, I also thought betting on the banks in this nascent market while Ripple seemed cheap would be a decent move.
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Honestly, finding it hard to separate what I think will happen from what I hope will happen...lol me
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Don't worry, it isn't just you that struggles with that.
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just watched this video on youtube and came over here. Very helpful, I definitely will buy a little more BTC in this dip. These dips are always the same, yet it is still hard to control your feeling, just like you said.
I have one question: You say "BTC's first mover advantages are always gonna stay very very hard to get by". Can you explain in one or two sentences why you think that way?
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Because most people who hear about this space only know about Bitcoin, meaning a lot of the new capital flows to it and it only. A lot of time is being invested into Bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies since there is incentive to do so. The financial world is all aggregating around Bitcoin now with futures, options and ETFs. And in the event of a sustained bear market, Bitcoin tends to thrive while altcoins get slaughtered.
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In most taste tests Pepsi wins yet Coke has 50% more market share. Coke came first. Bitcoin came first. The general population has never heard of ethereum or other coins. BTC has top of mind awareness. Big advantage.
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I have to say, this price dip was a good test for me. I've never traded before outside of crypto, so this is what I needed to reassure myself that I won't be emotional when there are moments like this in the market. Even though I saw the numbers rapidly going down I wasn't worried and I didn't over extend myself from the beginning by only putting in an amount I don't care to lose. Also helps that my overall satoshi value is way higher than when I started!
This isn't just a personal test though, this will allow us to see how everybody reacts to it as it's the largest dip since BTC has become mainstream in the news media.
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Good on you! Best of luck to your future investing.
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I guess that people are selling their cryptos for Christmas presents, at least at first, then they created some FUD on the late investors which accelerated the decrease in price. Or who knows, maybe just some people taking profits back. Whatever it is, time has shown that after corrections like these, it is a good time to buy.
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I highly doubt people are liquidating assets to buy Christmas gifts, especially just days out. The time it would take to transfer fiat into the bank would make it seem illogical to sell now. Plus the volume on that specific group of people would have a minuscule effect on the price. I'm very curious to see what caused this blood bath though.
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I really doubt that too, but the people cashing out may be buying some presents from the profits they made :) For the moment it is pretty hard to find an explanation of why all the currencies are losing value at once, but this makes it a very good moment to buy some crypto!
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I would love to recieve one of those presents!
What moves the price is high volume. The fall starts when a big player (maybe more) start to cashing out. Panic ensues, most people start to sell.
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Panic is for the weak, now it is a good time to buy!
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Maybe a week, maybe a month. You never know for sure with cryptos
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This was a great video! You are completely right about sticking to your guns. i had buy orders in at 1600, 1500 and 1400 and when the market bounced yesterday i ended up FOMOing.. oppps. but i ended up buying some more tonight.. I will never make that mistake again though, thanks for reiterating the importance of sticking yo your gut!
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It's painful when you decide to FOMO and then your gut turns out to be right - far more painful than sticking to your gut and being wrong (because everyone has dealt with that). It's tough to be right about the markets, so you better be sure that you put your money where your mouth is so you can deal with the nice feelings associated with being right!
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i agree, this is getting pretty ugly! down to 10.4k on gdax. good that you stuck to your guns!!
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One of my favorite quotes. Be greedy when others are fearful..
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Warren Buffett may think Bitcoin is thin air, and I don't blame him for thinking so, but he's always been one of my favorite mentors.
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Just sad that I didn't know well to wait until it dipped below $13k. Still looking forward to the bull run that is sure to come!
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We have to see a correction. Hope it's not too big to scare off the new comers.
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Probably more blood is coming. Thats what happens when the uneducated get greedy.
This is exactly the smart money taking big profits and leaving scraps for the Dumb money.
I bought some BTC at 8k level, and definetly wont sell them now. Im more like experimenting with cryptos, and the evil side of me think its funny to see some people that joined in with big greed taking this fall.
Probably will take a long time to recovery from this, because the Dumb money Will probably hold back on investing in cryptos for a while. What u say?
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Do you think it's a good idea for the average crypto investor to attempt to time the market and trade in and out of positions or just identify and hold quality coins for the long run? For example, I began buying quality projects about 18 months ago and have basically just held through many ups and downs and am up around 2000%. I have my doubts that my gains would be that high if I did more trading and less investing. What are your thoughts on this considering that very few people have the knowledge and experience that you do?
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Probably not - buy & hold is a better strategy for most people, but I would add a preface that in the crypto market, it's not that unlikely we see a drawdown in the ballpark of 80% again which trading can help prevent or mitigate. It's not like stocks where you can be certain they will go up in long-run: Many projects will fail (even the ones that look higher quality). However, I'd keep an allocation to the space and make sure your position size isn't so large that you are risking your financial independence on a market that is so overheated.
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With regards to Bitcoin (or any cryptoasset) inheritance, how do we pass on what we've got when we're told to keep our private keys from everyone?
Won't this eventually lead to a % of coins 'lost' forever as more time goes on?
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Yes it does - plus coins are just lost in general. At some point, this problem will likely be solved.
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Thanks for your happy thoughts on the market :D
P.S.: Not only buying BTC makes you earn money now, at steemit doing upvotes also helps you too you know?
100% power means you need to do some likes more often :D https://steemd.com/@cryptovestor
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My First response - Shock and dismay
My Second response - BUY! I agree with you - it is a big buying opportunity for BTC and ETH. Also some Alt-coins.
I just put some buy orders in with some of the cryptos that I like that fell the largest %age as compared to ETH and BTC. When the market recovers I expect that these coins will rise faster than BTC and therefore give bigger profits.
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Just waiting for the price to go lower for some ethereum. I used to buy when it was $390. but sold half to buy more bitcoin gold. I'm hoping god profits in the next 3 years.
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Why would you buy Bitcoin Gold? Serious question.
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Honestly, when I first invested in bitcoin I never looked at charts, didn't consider short term risks and profits, but I was lucky enough to enter at dip at may, during that bitcoin/altcoin rally, seeing the upward potential, I Fomo'd and invested more than 3-4 times of my initial investment, my final buy was at 3000$, and my avg was around 2400$. For a month, bitcoin kept bleeding, first I was quite comfortable, as It was still over my avgerage cost, but the other half of the month, I don't remember a day without thinking of cashing out, but I sticked to my guts and hodl, if I didn't there's a high chance I'd miss 20000 $ rally. Yes I didn't cash out at 18-19000 except some small profit, but my guts still tells me to hodl, so I'll hodl.
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The crypto space is a real shock to the system for most new investors. Such major gains and losses in short periods of time can be quite overwhelming for a lot of people. Over time however many tend to get use to the large movements and grow thicker skin and just HODL. This is much easier when you invest in coins/tokens you have long term faith in, but can be very nerve-wracking for those that are playing the short game and investing in shitcoins for short term gains (which is why I personally only get cryptos I TRULY believe in for the long haul). With that said, major corrections like this are still a bit stressful at times, but for the most part I just smoke a joint and try to wait it out and laugh it off.
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You've done well for yourself champ!
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I came straight here after watching your video and clicking the like button.
Being very new to the Crypto trading, this crash has been quite a learning experience for me. Best thing I can take away from all this for me to flourish in this market is be comfortable with being uncomfortable.
I honestly feel proud of myself that I got a good night sleep after all of this.
Thank you for the video. I subscribed to your channel and am looking forward for more.
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We saw a BTC/EUR dip down to around €8500 only on GDAX (sadly) which is roughly around the $10k USD mark. Which means that was a nice opportunity!
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It's a good time to be greedy right now. A lot of things were a bit overprice. I think if you have some experience in the crypto market most people would be used to these sudden dips.
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Good post, buy and hold
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BTC will keep going lower because I bought in a few days ago. Smh.
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I really appreciate your psychological/emotional perspective on trading. That said, when hearing you say during this video that you "shouldn't feel" frustrated, angry, sad, etc., my therapist training kicked in. I wanted to offer an alternative: that it's more likely that one (I know at least me) will feel some level of anxiety, to say the least, when the market goes into these momentary free falls. Instead of telling myself "No, don't feel that," which can lead to self-shame and perhaps a downward sprial that may lead to worse decision making in the market, I go a slightly more subtle route, akin to Buddhist psychology, where I engage what is called the Witness self (think of it as an emotionally detached noticing part of yourself) and notice those feelings (fear, anxiety, etc). This kicks off an internal alarm, kind of an "Aha! I recognize this feeling. Now let's not be a slave to it and make bad decisions as a result).
I see in your description above you took a similar approach to what I just said than what you said yourself in the video, which is what I suspect you meant by it all along: "If you feel fear, or frustration, or anger, or depression when price collapses like this, try and shift that feeling to excitement (contained of course, logical only)" I think when you said to shift the feeling, I may be describing the mechanism by which that feeling is shifted.
On a personal experiential level I had a curious excitement when all this was taking place, but then again, perhaps that's because I have the luxury of having invested in btc between 5.5 -7.5k.
Thanks again for your perspective and keep up the great videos!
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Enjoy your insights. Motivated me to get on here and write a little blurb on MakeDao - which is quite topical given the current bloodbath.
Would love your feedback on the post - or if you're already familiar with DAI, your opinion of its viability as a alternative to USDT.
https://steemit.com/makerdao/@shaunshmoe/tl-dr-guide-to-makerdao-and-dai-tokens
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Guess we had it coming:) Now it's time to put a little extra money into some good coins i thought i had missed out on. Good thing i waited! Always a pleasure to hear it on your perspective, you seem like a clever man lol.
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Agreed. There's never a better opportunity to buy than when there's blood in the streets and everyone starts selling.
People selling are the ones that probably didn't even bother to research the tech behind blockchain or never studied investing nor trading. It's very unfortunate that people will put in so much of their money into something they don't actually trust causing them to make bad decisions. Then again, it's these people that cause us to make more money.
What do you think would be the percentage of people that bought in without bothering to research blockchain technologies or investing/trading? 20%?
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20%? Likely closer to 80%. 80/20 rule applies, just in reverse.
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I know this off topic, but what are your thoughts on crypto mining? Cloud mining? A video on this would be great.
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I'll probably make a video on this topic at some point as, like most people, it was part of why I was initially attracted to the field.
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Very good video, many thanks for uploading. Can I ask your opinion about sudden rise in price of the SegWit2x futures?
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Finally agree 100% on your point here... I wish i had more cash to buy BTC now... Although the last BTC i bought was under 10k so i am still cool... Myabe its also a good time to take some altcoins... Do you think altcoins will bleed once BTC goes up again?
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I enjoy your videos a lot. Your explanations are clear and you seem to know what you're talking about.
Sorry if this question a bit off-topic. I didn't see a more appropriate place to post it.
Why do you choose to use the GDAX site in your videos? Most of the other traders I've seen use interfaces that are far more complex and detailed. Do you do the majority of your trading based on what you see in GDAX?
Thanks in advance.
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I don't do much technical analysis so it really doesn't matter what I use. Moving averages are the only technical indicator I care about and even then, I think normal support / resistance lines are superior.
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So I'm still trying to figure out where to lay blame to what blew the house of cards over this time and, from the voices of the internet, I seem to be hedging more towards bitcash getting listed on Coinbase. Now whether or not it was a conspiracy to commit insider trading on the part of Coinbase, or if it was just the least professional launch of a service I've seen in sometime, is a little beside the point in my book. I feel the real culprit here is actually listing a 4th option. In terms of sales they always say give 3 options. Most will gravitate to the middle or last in terms of price, but some will always see if they can portion off the luxury one. In the past year if you pulled up price performance from BTC/ETH/LTC you'd see the biggest gainer has actually been ETH by a factor of 100x with LTC a close 2nd at around 97-98x (well, maybe not after today) and BTC only hitting around 23x at it's recent average high.
Introducing a 4th option, especially in a contentious way, has cracked that system a little. On-top of that it's Branding is confusing and it's purpose is not unique. The other 3 options had arguments for their existence. BCC or BCH or Bcash, depending on when you're talking about it, is hard pressed to make an argument for it's existence besides being a "better" Bitcoin without being able to note what BTC was missing to the consumer. If what makes it better is that it's cheaper, then what's LTC? ...and honestly it's not really cheaper if it's value is not explicit besides brand jacking the market leader.... And how would you even compare it with Ethereum to the retail market?
It also shouldn't be understated that the brand of Coinbase, which has been in my opinion intrinsic to this latest bull run and a key factor to the market rise this year, has been compounding this effect by showing it's own, new cracks in this situation. Prior to the surprise launch of Cash, Coinbase was the rightful rock of the market by comparison to other exchanges, being an excellent, reliable resource for casual players to track, having the most user friendly UI and engagement process, and a CEO who was vocal in the corner of his customers. After the bizarrely surprise launch of Cash, Coinbase is now known for halting trading to their benefit, a hilariously broken exchange feed with the potential for insider trading and price fixing. It will forever be a question of why they surprised launched Cash from a marketing standpoint when not even they were ready for it.
Honestly though, I don't think it can be stressed enough how important Coinbase's brand was in facilitating this years markets and I feel like I just watched it all come down from two angles and this round of chaos is everyone trying to figure themselves out.
Thoughts?
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It's likely that Coinbase listing Bitcoin Cash was one of the big dominos that caused this to come down, but I suspect it is more because most people think Bitcoin was overextended and therefore sold once everyone else started to. I have a little more faith in Coinbase than you (I think they made a stupid mistake more than a malicious decision), they have definitely affected the market. However, such events only affect the short-term - especially with Bitcoin.
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Great video as always! How long do you think this correction will last? Surely this is just the beginning? Can we expect 3-4 days of constant downturn momentum?
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I think it will (continue downward, I don't know how long), but I have no crystal ball and Bitcoin has bounced back from so many situations I didn't expect it to faster than I thought so ... I'm starting to realize I should probably adjust my expectations a tad, but not much.
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Can you explain how you decided that 11-12K is a good entry point for yourself ? What indicators on which chart timeframe did you use, in combination with other historical data points ?
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There was support at that level, Bitcoin trading at around that level before bursting up to $20k and it is a level that just makes sense for most people who want to overcut $10k to ensure they get it before it bounces back (assuming it does).
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I was 100% out of BTC by 8:30AM Eastern and sold all BTC to NXT. NXT is offering an airdrop of all holders of NXT on December 27. Bittrex is supporting the Ignis token airdop wallet snapshot. You get .5 of Ignis on your NXT holdings. I am fortunate to have sold into NXT. Lost only 8%.
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Trading is about risk... good trading is about good risk management. This is an opportunity but there is always risk so be smart (not emotional)
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I'm not too worried about it right. I'm down in a few things but it's actually a really good time to buy in.
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