Hello All,
In this post, I would like to share my brief price analysis of Bitcoin's price movements in 2017. Starting with the basics, below chart shows the mean (average) return of bitcoin per day, which is had an average of .9879% return per day. The chart also includes other statistics for those stats people. I used Bitcoin's closing prices to obtain each day's returns. So, for example:
(today's closing price - yesterday's closing price)/(yesterday's closing price)
Next, I found average returns of Bitcoin by days, from 1st to 31st, and graphed the result below:
For those statistic people who are interested in p-value, below is the chart. For those of you not familiar with stats, p-value just means how precise is each respective data. So, lower the p-value more precise the data (strong predictive power), and higher the p-value less precise is the data (weak predictive power). Different precision arises due to differences in each data's variation. So, this means focus on the data with low p-values and ignore the high ones.
I have highlighted all the significant results (ones with p-values less than .1) in bright yellow; they are significant at 90% significance level (high predictive power). I have also highlighted "somewhat" significant results in light peach color. So, perhaps you may want to incorporate this analysis in your trading strategy.
Hope this helped
*I used closing price of Bitcoin from dates 12/18/16 to 12/17/17 obtained from coinmarketcap.com