Hi everyone, this is an update to my current live trade on the XBTEUR pair on the 240 minute timeframe on the Kraken exchange. You can find my previous in depth analysis here. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@domavila/in-depth-analysis-of-the-btceur-pair-who-is-going-to-win-the-bears-or-the-bulls I advise those who didn't read it to check it out because I will be referring to it throughout this article.
After reviewing my previous analysis I would like to add more thoughts and insight regarding the bearish scenario in case the bulls loose this battle. If you refer to my previous blog on this pair, I mentioned after hitting the 0.382 fibonacci retracement at the 530 EUR mark we had a slight pullback to 508 EUR and then price rebounded off this level. It currently looks like the bulls are making another push for 530 EUR and will try to break the resistance here at the 0.382 fibonacci retracement.
If the bulls fail to break this resistance for the second time and the bears push price to the downside I can see price retesting the lows in the 464 EUR-475 EUR range where my stop loss and entry are shown. There is also trend line support in this area, shown by the white dotted line on the chart.
The pullback to this 464 EUR-476 EUR range, which is the defined as the potential reversal zone or PRZ by legendary inventor and creator of harmonic trading Scott Carney (I will talk about the PRZ and Scott in a future blog) is very common in harmonic trading. If this support holds we usually see a strong bounce to the TP 2 (Target 2) level at 555 EUR which is the 0.618 retracement. If support does not hold in the PRZ then we can expect further downside but I will leave that for another day.
Trade Status: Long
Entry: 473
Stop Loss: Moved up to 504 EUR to guarantee profit
Target 1: 507 EUR (Target 1 has been hit 1/3 of my position is closed)
Target 2: 555 EUR
Target 3 (Bonus): 687 EUR
Current price at the time of this post: 522 EUR
If anyone is interested in studying harmonic trading here is a link to the creator of Harmonic Trading, Scott Carney http://harmonictrader.com/. His system turned me into a successful trader and was a complete game changer. I will be emailing Scott later today and will ask him join steemit. His knowledge and experience in the financial markets is incredible and I would dig it if he joined this platform. All of us traders would benefit from this even if harmonic trading is not your style.
I hope you all enjoyed my trade analysis and feel free to ask any questions and comment. Remember to trade at your own risk and the number one rule of trading is to manage risk and protect your capital. Come find me at tradingview in the chat and feel free to look at my published charts here.
https://www.tradingview.com/u/domavila/#published-charts
Happy trading everyone!! Peace
UPDATE: Zane, from the scam exchange Bitfinex, just announced he would not have any answers regarding the Bitfinex breach tonight as promised. This is a classic tactic that I have seen time and time again in the bitcoin space, otherwise known as "The Wild Wild West". What happens is a known figure, in this example Zane, stalls for time again and again as he and the people in charge of Bitfinex plan their exit strategy. I hope I am wrong in this situation because I have many friends, who despite my warnings, have a lot of bitcoin on the Bitfinex exchange. Moments after his announcement the price of bitcoin dropped from 522 EUR to 515 EUR.
With all the bad actors, infighting and shading manipulation going on in the bitcoin space it looks there is a tough road ahead for the bulls but who knows what can happen, this is crypto after all!
When trading I don't alter my trade based on news or hearsay and I have already hit my first target and have raised my stop loss to 504 EUR as defined by my trade plan, so I am just watching this shit show that Bitfinex and BitGo created play out sitting comfortably on my free trade. If I get stopped out at 504 EUR it is fine because I have already locked in profits and I have nothing to loose. That is the beauty of a free trade and good trade management. I am still bullish on BTC and currently long on this trade. Happy trading everyone!
Current price as of this update is 517.9 EUR on Kraken and 578 USD on GDAX. Happy trading everyone!