Yeah, too bad September sucks for crypto.
Condolences to @encrypt3dbr0k3r for emotionally buying a million coins in a single day. If we've learned anything from recent events, it should be that a MicroStrategy strategy of placing cascading buy orders during a dip is the way to go.
NAH!
That's no fun!
- People really like to go all or nothing.
- MIN/MAX
- ALL IN!
Trading in this way provides a certain level of gambling excitement and catharsis.
Too bad it's also a really good way to lose money for no practical reason :D
Again, September is crap for crypto.
It always has been. People go crazy in the summer, and September is the time to reel it in and unwind positions. It even happened during the Mega-bull-run of 2017. Bitcoin spike to ATH $4850 on August 31. September the price crashed to $3100 before the legendary run up to $20k in December.
Seriously, look at the history.
We hit September and the entire market knows the party is over.
2016? Skipped?
Bitcoin Doubling Curve (Q4)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
Every year that goes by Bitcoin becomes more and more predictable. September has never been a good month all the way back to the anchor value of $100 in Q4 2013.
Why'd you skip 2016?
Because it is the most relevant year.
Seriously
We are traveling right underneath the doubling curve 5 months after a halving event, just like last time. MicroStrategy fleeced the market by preventing a dump to fill the futures CME gap. Brilliant play. $425M bought while the price looked seemingly unaffected.
x10 Mega-bubble
Speaking of that $425M... how much is that going to be worth if Bitcoin goes 10x higher than the doubling curve in Q4 2021? Just shy of $10B... lol. I wonder if they'll unload any at the peak... hm.
Calling it.
We are pretty much at the bottom right now. How do I know? Because September is always the bottom, especially after a halving event in the same year. In a year all this petty price action is going to look like a flat line compared to what's to come, just like it always does after a halving event.
I still get a kick whenever I see some fluff piece talk about how Bitcoin "spiked" or "plummeted" by 5%. 5% is literally nothing in this space. 5% is stability. All the real movements happen 20%-40% at a time.
Conclusion
I'm felling pretty good with my current exposure to the market. I've been around since 2017, and as I look around to all the other accounts that entered when I did, I'm doing pretty well comparatively. I'm a scrapper and I've been able to save every last penny over the last 3 years. That dedication is going to pay off, sooner rather than later. Let it ride!