PROCEED WITH CAUTION! I believe we are in a countdown to a wave (v) of 5 of III top. While I don't know exactly when (no one does), the approaching top is not to be ignored. These fifth waves are for profit taking and boy did we rack up the profits from the prior bottom as shown by wave 4 (white). I have decided to sell the remaining 1/3 of my Bitcoin holdings in a laddered format. Wave IV is next and the volatility could get scary with a drop down to as low as around $2,000. That would certainly wipe out lots of wealth. Thus, I will take my profits and be grateful for them. Taking profits now is selling into strength as we bought it low into weakness.
I have also unloaded 1/3 of all my Altcoins....gratefully taking more profits. This way, I raise cash...dry powder to await the wave IV bottom and redeploy once the dust settles.
The only Altcoin I will not sell will be BCH, in fact I might increase my holdings on this coin as a bet that it could be reverse correlated to Bitcoin and rise during its wave IV correction.
I'm not being a doom and gloomer! Not at all! I'm not a fan of Jim Cramer, but I do agree with one thing he often said: Bulls make money, Bears make money, but PIGS get SLAUGHTERED. The wave IV volatility can slaughter profits very quickly. I'm taking mine. I refuse to be slaughtered. Be careful.
If this blog post has entertained or helped you to profit, please follow, upvote, resteem and/or consider buying me a beer:
BTC Wallet - 19gHMJc9wi9KkP47wokz8y4cFNgz1kAAUE
ETH Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
LTC Wallet - LU1mEw1LHvffoWf9VDEVdP7Day4jv6VLqu
EOS Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.
Thanks for the insight. The issue I have is that if I sell all of my btc as you suggest, I am not prepared to leave the fiat on an exchange as the risk is too great. If I withdraw to a bank account, I have to pay capital gains taxes as I have disposed of an asset! Therefore I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't. I need to put some more thought into this!
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My recommendation is Dash. It's one of the less volatile coins and when it moves, it's going up. It's got solid and amazing fundamentals. Superb future (https://www.dash.org/evolution), perfect governance and it's the coin that is going to kick BTC to the curb in the future.
Check the past performance and check the fundamentals. Dash is pretty much like the US Dollar in the crypto world. https://www.dashforcenews.com/
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You still have the solution of Tether which should keep a value very closed to 1$.
The same for SteemDollars (SBD) but yeah SBD is little more volatile
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Thanks. I've had a look at tether and it looks like its web based. Is there a desktop wallet I can use where I control my own keys? If not, it's no different from leaving cash on an exchange
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You can consider Sovereign Hero from Bitshares, but it has only a few months' history. It is supposed to appreciate 5%/year against the $ though. I will be using a combination: mostly Tether, some Hero, some CDN $ on QuadrigaCX, which I consider to be relatively trustworthy (call me foolish?). If someone has a better Tether solution, I would be interested in hearing it too. I have seen commentary on reddit saying that you can use a BTC wallet, but it was too advanced for me. I also have a little tied up in ICOs where I kind of feel like I am sitting it out till they go live (Tezos, MOdum). Finally, someone mentioned Dash, and it really held up well during the last correction.
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If I can't withdraw tether to a wallet which I control, it's no better than leaving cash on an exchange. I have no issue with using an exchange and withdrawing but if the bear market turns out to be a year long, like the one a few years ago, I'm not prepared to leave large amounts of cash on an exchange. If I withdraw I get hammered for tax. Iam better off staying invested and riding it down and back up.
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I"m not a fan of Tether as it is not 1:1 with USD. But, then, it could go >1:1 to USD with massive demand for safety. This is also why I dont' use Poloniex so much.
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I don't think the exchanges are at risk. Remember, after wave IV correction another massive wave V rally up is expected. That's when my dry powder buys in again.
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After several bitcoin exchanges have gone under they can't be fully trusted. I will only use a couple of exchanges and then never leave funds on them. It's nothing to do with now bitcoin etc performs it's the fact that crypto was invented to empower people to control their own money without the control of trusted third parties. If you leave crypto on an exchange and 'trust' an exchange to look after it for you, you have no control and may as well keep it in the bank.
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Good point.
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Annnddddddd it's happening
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If prices go below$4,406 then top could be in. Let's see what happens.
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I was able to buy at 4275 earlier today on bittrex
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Nice!
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Wouldn't that be considered going under 4406 then? Or is it a rolling average?
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The wave i top is around $4,200 or so....if price falls below that, then the top is in most likely. That hasn't happenned yet.
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This is AWESOME info! Thanks Haejin. Your insight is invaluable and the fact you share it is so magnanimous. Of course each individual is responsible for their own decisions, but it sure helps to have a sage to take cues from. I am grateful.
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Thanks!
I wish you MASSIVE profits!
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Help me with your upvote I need your help is of great importance! Https://steemit.com/news/@gr3g0r/mi-salario-de-la-semana-venezuela-and-my-salary-of-the-week-venezuela#comments Follow me! @gr3g0r
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Start investing in coins with any steemit money you earn and trade your way up!
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I'm finding this part of EW the hardest to interpret which i guess takes the years of experience to predict. The waves within waves. A few of your other charts put certain coins 5th wave beyond this point (the first to 2nd quarter of Sept) but this potential correction of Btc is much more immature (in a sense where even a week can sure make a hella lot of difference when trying to take profits). Maybe the btc/bcc war will begin sooner than later. As btc (digital gold) seems to underpin the movement of most coins i wouldn't want to be the one on any sinking ship. Like your post says it may be time to air on the side of caution. Thanks again for your analysis 👍
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Don't worry too much about the sub-waves....try and visualize the bigger five waves and the abc corrections.
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Thank you @haejin, any chance of updates on Litecoin, Neo and Omg please?
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Agree with you regarding BCH. It has an inverse relationship with BTC. In fact Ripple has exhibited similar characteristics in recent downturns in BTC. Perhaps this is due to the bank manipulation or just ripple has been smashed after the crazy rally in the first part of the year.
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And you think that after this wave IV we will have another ATH at wave V?
Also, abc correction isn't it have to activate after wave V? (I am still new to this)
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Yes, Wave V after wave IV. That's why I'm raising cash to buy it back at bottom of wave IV and profit from Wave V up $7,000 or higher.
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Things drastically change in a split sec....literally. If I was not viewing these posts, I would not know and perhaps miss out or miss in....like the ebb and flow of the ocean... in a hurricane, I may add. Thank you, yet again.
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Check this out: https://www.tradingview.com/x/0jLpzy7N. I noticed inverted head and shoulders pattern. If this is correct the prices can go up significantly before correction.
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True. But H&S bottoms don't usually occur in an uptrend.
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Yes, I know this can be an exception as you wrote previously. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-update-h-and-s-shoulders-bullish-or-bearish
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Upvoted and resteemed.
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Do u move into ltc for protection or bch or cash out in dollars?
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USD
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Would you hold some Bitcoin cash ?
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Yes! I believe it might move inverse to BTC.
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Yes agree. I think major inverse correlation.
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Thank you for your honesty Haejin! Everybody loves to see the forecasts for 'to the Moon' up waves but just as important is knowing when to pull back ahead of corrections and I appreciate you sharing those predictions with us too. I have learned so much from your charts and studying EW in general the last few months. Also laddering up and down and being grateful for profits instead of trying to guess the very top and bottom of each wave. Thank you!
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I wish you MASSIVE profits!
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More awsome insight. Thank you Haejin. Have you looked at BTS lately. Is this an accumulation going on for 2 weeks?
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Here is the analysis for BTS, please only use to augment your due diligence.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitshares-bts-update
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"Yabba Dabba Doo".....A GREAT NEWS FOR BITCOIN CASH... YES..YES..YES. Thank you Haejin
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Hey @haejin! Thanks again for nice insights. You are probably busy with next post but please consider this question: From a risk perspective, how can you justify having 0% BTC? Any news might come at any time to disrupt your technical analysis.
Following on that, if you'd like to share, what is your % fiat? Seems to me like any position above 30% is extremely risky with a parabolic breakout for crypto's in mind
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My choice to hold 0% BTC was profit based. That was it. I also spread my ladder wide so some rungs are in the $6k region and that to me is best to cover further upside. The rungs that don't get triggered will be my left over BTC balance.
My % USD is now pretty high. That's intentional to hold dry powder for the Wave IV bottom. I don't necessarily see having >30% in cash as being risky but safe.
It's better to be out of the market and wishing you were in it than being in the market and wishing you were out of it.
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Nicely put. However, I believe we must stay open-minded as there will be a time when you will be 'in the market' when you are in fiat.
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