Is this time really different?

in bitcoin •  3 years ago 

We hear how similar the current BTC price action is to prior bull markets, but is it really?

To answer the above question, yes the structure of the current bull market looks very similar to what happened back in 2013...

But...

It's not exactly the same.

And it's actually pretty different than what happened during the bull market in 2017...

Check this out:

image.png

(Source: https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1431652316185247747/photo/1)

The long term holder supply shock ratio tends to be at lows when we are near peaks.

We saw this back at the 2017 top.

If you look at the current chart though, the lth supply shock ratio is trending up, not down.

Which means...

We either already had our top for this cycle or we are a long ways away from a top and are in store for a lot of fun over the next 3-5 months.

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Bitcoin is like that friend who always over does it at a party, never a dull moment.

Now this is funny :)

Haha yes, never a dull moment indeed! There's always something going on with it.

There is only two important facts in the world, relative value of USD does go down and value of everything else goes up.