The market is looking pretty red these days. The end of the year is looking pretty grim and it seems that 20k was the absolute ATH for now.

But so far I am not ready to call the crash coming just yet.

But we are close to the parabolic uptrend. If this is broken thru to the downside this may trigger a longer term bear trend.

However so far it seems like we are still in the progress of forming an Elliot ABC correction and if the support where the parabolic uptrend and the red line meet hold, we could form a new rally from there in January.

This red line is the upper line from the previous channel which was broken after 5 attempts around 8200.

So at this point I am looking for the completion of the ABC correction above 1100, to confirm the parabolic trend. If that does not hold the next support would be 8200.

So as long as we stay above 8200 I think we cannot assuming we are in a real bear market, but once we break below 1100 I feel that the bear market has become much more likely.

Summary

It looks to me like we are still correcting from a very long run that is part of an overall bull trend. As such it still seems to that we are correcting within a rising market.