If you have listened to Tone Vays, who I respect, though not always agree with, then you may be thinking of selling or shorting bitcoin right now.

Tone has an indicator that is basically saying now is a big short signal on monthly, daily and even 4hly chart. Check out the link above, it will lead you right to the corresponding part of the video.

And given the recent run, we are kind of overbought. So taking some profits certainly makes sense.

Here is my struggle. First of all shorting or selling is always a problem, so I need a very good reason to do so. The problem is basically that I have very strong convictions that in the longterm bitcoin will go up, and having less amount of BTC in the future than today would be a great catastrophe. The risk is that if I sell today i won't be able to buy the same amount of BTC back because the price will be higher.

So I think there is a great reason to do a short term trade and short, but I am not ready to sell my stash just yet

So let me point out a few reasons that make hesitant:

1. It's December and year end rally

Finally we have Wall Street and a bunch of hedge funds in the market (ca. 100 new hedge funds). They like to make December rally, because it looks good in the books, so I just think there will be a boost until the end of the month.

2. Break out

Bitcoin has just broken out of a channel, or what I call a speed at which it has grown this year. I believe that we are in a bubble and this is a sign that now the speed is picking up. The same thing happened earlier this year when the speed changed from the run from 200 to a 1000 earlier this year.
You can see this in the screenshot where the red like

Check out this video where i explain this bubble stuff and used it to predict the 10k price we have now

3. Generally signs look positive and bullish

Bitcoin and the crypto market looks positive and bullish, although overheated. So given where we are I am not ready to sell in a big way just yet.

4. the MACD

... looks to me like we are just getting started are in the middle of a run and not tipping over just yet.

Conclusion

I think we are at a spot where a short trade makes a lot of sense. From a long term or investment perspective I would want to stay long however. There are too many sign that look upwards. Especially the fact that we just broke out of a channel makes me believe that we have just entered a new phase in the bubble where the price may go parabolic. In this phase it may be very easy to miss much of the rally by selling and then having to buy back and losing 20-30% of value.

That said the short signs look very strong as well, so I think this is a perfect opportunity to make a trade and use the profits to stack up the long holdings or hedge any coins you may have.

Happy trading and good luck.

And thank you for your attention and upvotes!