CryptoGram_0009: January 10, 2018

State of the Market:

For new readers:
Cryptogram is my personal journal of thoughts about cryptocurrencies and related topics. I am posting them on Steemit as a means of keeping a record of them. At the bottom of each post is brief summary of the general layout of this, and future posts. Thanks for reading. (Also to find other posts, search "cryptogram")

Getting into it...
Today I have been looking at some charts and I want to note some observations:

Ethereum is on the up and up, making new ATH every day, however you are not seeing the mass meteoric rises of other coins. Just based on how it feels, it seems like the market is cooling off. This has historically been characterized by a retreat back to bitcoin. However, it is possible that the "retreat" for this cycle could include ETH. Lets take a look at 3, 7 day charts in particular which i find interesting:

First: ETH over the last 7 days:

Notes: Steady up trend, increasing volume, and an overlay of the ETH vs BTC and ETH vs USD lines.

Second: Bitcoin over the last 7 days:

Notes: Notice that on ~Jan 8th, bitcoin start trending downward, which is almost precisely where ETH begins a solid upward trend. This is a reversal from the usual. However, it is maintaining a fairly constant trade volume.

Third: Cardano:

notes: Began a steady downtrend about jan 4th. volume has cut in half, this shows the kind of behavior expected after the initial hype about a project dies down. I posted this chart as a general indicator of the market. Cardano has remained inflated due to the irrational exuberance over the last month. If it has begun a down trend, it could be a significant indicator that some of the enthusiasm is receding.

Fourth and fifth and finally: Total Market Cap 7 day and 1 month

notes: starts what looks like a correction on January 8th.

notes: the January 8th correction looks a lot like the Dec 22 correction.

The conclusions i draw from these 5 charts are as follows:

• The market is going through a minor correction
  • This could turn into a major correction, but it is too early to tell. Overall, it seems the sentiment about the crypto market is positive. However cardano's activity make me think that this has a chance to be big crash being predicted everywhere.
• This correction is different from many in the past as it seems that the "retreat" is at least going somewhat to ethereum as opposed to bitcoin. Both coins are tackling scaling issues at the same time, so I expect this could be a new trend. Retreat back to either ETH or BTC as opposed to BTC only.
• I think some immediate solution to scaling, or lack there of will drive the market. If fees lesson in the next 2 weeks, bull market continues, if it doesn't, people will get fed up and the inevitable crash following this crazy rise will come about. Just a guess.

Thanks for reading
-libertyhound

Purpose of CryptoGram:
Currently in the crypto space it can be difficult to remember what you have discussed or been thinking from one week to the next. The rapid development of, and many changes in the space keep everyone on their toes. Now that I have been financially involved in the space for roughly a year, I realize that I would love to have my thoughts from 2017 written down somewhere. I believe having this information will help me stay focused, avoid repeating past mistakes, and hopefully help some other people, (anyone who decides to read this,) from making those same mistakes.

Briefly, I need a place to record my train of thought and that place will now be dubbed "CryptoGram"

My initial thoughts on the structure of this post will be:

• About 500 words
• Frequency of once a day to once a week
• Each post will have a number and date
• A snippet of top 5 cmc coins for price reference.
• I will always use these 5 tags, (unless of course there are drastic changes, but for now these will be the tags!)
  • bitcoin cryptocurrency ethereum cryptogram libertyhound