This is taken from a USI thread to calm frayed nerves. I hope it helps :)
As requested, here’s an explanation of my Technical Analysis on Bitcoin.
Before I go into the analysis, it’s important to note that I have been trading for over 8 years, I was published in the book “High Probability Trading Strategies” by Robert Miner.
I base 90% of my trading analysis on what is in this book and what is taught by Robert Miner.
A couple of things that are really important to note about Bitcoin, stocks, shares, forex, commodities (any market). No one knows what is going to happen in the future, including me as every moment in the markets is unique. What you need to understand is that when there are more buyers then sellers (bulls) the price moves up. When there are more sellers than buyers (bears) the price moves down. That’s what moves price.
As you have seen, Bitcoins price is moving down right now. Why? Because there are more sellers than buyers.
The great news is that with Technical analysis, which is just looking at chart patterns, indicators and other factors, you can make both price and time projections and predict with high probability what is very likely to happen next.
Based on my technical analysis, since the 7th of Jan I entered a short trade on Bitcoin (making money whilst the market is moving down), I have made very good profits in this move even though I know I have over 250 BTC packs.
Am I concerned that my compounded interest on my BTC packs is now worth less? No.
Here’s why…
Markets move in either impulse waves (Since April 2017 Bitcoin has been making impulsive waves, with small corrections) or Corrective waves.
Corrections are overlapping waves. You can think of this as a breather. After a sprint a runner normally needs a breather to catch its breath before it begins to sprint again. Since 17th Dec 2017 Bitcoin started a correction (breather). The most common type of correction is called an ABC correction, this is traders jargon.
Without going into the technical details this is what my technical analysis shows.
I am looking to exit my short position soon with Bitcoin as it looks like its coming to the end of its correction. Its had its breather and will soon be very likely to start sprinting again.
I am therefore getting ready for long positions (Buy Bitcoin).
No one, including me, knows how low Bitcoin will go, but the price projection based on Fibonacci ratios (technical jargon) shows that it should find a reversal point around the $8,500 mark. As no one knows exactly where, I will be trailing my stop loss on a one bar high to maximise my profits on this short trade where the market will exit my position.
The Exciting news for you all…
Once a breather is complete, the market then tends to go on to make new highs. In Bitcoins case, this will mean price has a very high probability of shooting past $20,000 (Jan 1st high)
When do we know the correction is over…?
Once price goes beyond the Jan 1st high of just over $17,000 we can be pretty confident that the breather is over, and Bitcoin is on the sprint again.
Summary:
Don’t worry about the breather that Bitcoin has made, it’s natural for all markets to have corrections.
Bitcoins correction looks very healthy from a Technical stand point, once the correction is complete, we should see new highs that go way beyond $20,000.
Remember, no one know what is going to happen, this analysis is not financial advice, its just high probability trading strategies.
I tried to keep this as short as possible but to give as much useful info for those that are not used to the fluctuations of the markets