A few years ago, many people where convinced that Bitcoin would dissappear quickly and would not even be worthy to be mentioned in the history books. And even today, 8 years after Bitcoin was unleashed onto the world, many people still expect Bitcoin to die sooner or later. I don't blame them. Most people are very sensitive to what the media tell us. The media repeatedly predicted the dead of Bitcoin in the past eight years and together with banks and governments they proclaimed that Bitcoin could and should not be trusted. When Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014 I heard people say: "Bitcoin is dead and Bitcoin's CEO is arrested".
But of course Bitcoin still exists and we started this year, 2017, with a price of over $1,000. How can a 100% digital currency that is not backed by any government or bank be worth so much?
Bitcoin and the blockchain
Since late 2015, media and banks began to shift their focus from Bitcoin to the blockchain. They wrote less about Bitcoin, but began to praise the blockchain, the underlying technology behind Bitcoin. Each Bitcoin transaction must be stored somewhere to prevent someone to spend his money several times. For this, among other things, the blockchain is used. A decentralised and open ledger that records transactions between two parties efficiently and in a verifiable and permanent way. The network runs on the basis of rules proposed by a lot of experts and then may or may not be accepted by the market, such as the Internet also came into being.
image source: dilbert.com
According to the media and the banks back then not Bitcoin, but the blockchain was the real innovation that would change the way we pay drastically. Almost all major banks began to experiment with blockchain technology. Should we forget about Bitcoin and focus on the blockchain only?
Bitcoin has been running non-stop for 7+ years
Each day, about 250,000 Bitcoin transactions are currently being processed by the Bitcoin network with a total daily value of about $200,000,000 US Dollar. And this is still increasing. This is a huge amount of money! If people wouldn't trust the Bitcoin blockchain, such an amount of money would never be transferred by the network. I'm not saying Bitcoin is perfect. It has a lot of challenges ahead, but it's safe to say Bitcoin will never just disappear.
Image source: blockchain.info
Why the Bitcoin price surged in 2016?
There were many reasons why the price of Bitcoin surged last year and many experts did extensive analyzes and wrote about it. Here are 4 reasons that have contributed to the price surge the most in my opinion:
1. Global political and financial uncertainty.
Governments and central banks all over the world are printing money and global debts keep on rising. Each new citizen that is born in the United Stated starts with a debt of $42,500 dollar. An increasing number of countries have a public debt greater than 100% of its GDP. The U.S. debt increased $9 trillion during President Obama's eight years in office. Where does this end?
More and more people prefer to invest in something that is less affected by political decisions. Welcome to Bitcoin!
Image source: howmuch.net
2. The war on cash
More and more countries begin to limit or prohibit cash to monitor transactions. India, Venezuela and Pakistan were probably just the beginning. There is a global war to get rid of cash and force everyone to participate in a system where every transaction can be monitored by the governments. Bitcoin is a reaction to this. People want to preserve their privacy and do not want to give so much power to a handful of players.
3. Inflation
Inflation in many countries is very high, which means the local currency is not a good store of value. People in those countries are forced to buy more stable currencies, gold, silver or anything else that has a good store of value. An increasing number of people decide to store a part of their wealth in Bitcoin.
We might not have an inflation above 1,500%, as in Venezuela, but even with an annual 2% cut you lose half of your purchasing power in 35 years. Something to think about.
Image source: actualitix.com
4. Bitcoin is stable
Meanwhile, Bitcoin exists eight years. It has never gone offline. Every day new people are learning to use it. Year after year it is the best performing currency. Every year that passes is a confirmation that it is indeed working and that it has potential.
Bitcoin in 2017
What will the bitcoin price be in 2017? Of course, we don't know yet. I see Bitcoin as a long term investment so what does one year matter? I expect the price to be higher at the end of this year, but who knows what will happen during the year. When I compare Bitcoin's current daily transaction volume with other players like Visa and MasterCard, Bitcoin is still very very small. See the chart below. This means, there is still a huge potential for a much higher Bitcoin price in the years ahead. Although nothing is certain in the Crypto space, I can't believe Bitcoin won't make new all time highs ever again.
Image source: Statista
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It is very interesting to see what the Bitcoin will do in 2017 and beyond. The reasons you give, are valid in my opinion. More than 400 crypto currencies are out there and more are coming to market every day. But Bitcoin is the biggest crypto currency and likely wil stay the biggest for times to come due to being the first and only one the mass media is writing about.
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Very interesting and informative article!
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Nice work penguinpablo.
I expanded on this myopic blockchain focus a few months ago.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@mattclarke/every-article-your-parents-have-read-about-bitcoin
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As a long time supporter and holder of Bitcoin, I have actually turned around to the view that Bitcoin (but not crypto in general or other blockchain networks) is indeed going to fail. The governance mechanism, Nakamoto Proof of Work Consensus, is enough to keep the network stable in unchanging conditions, but it has shown itself to be dysfunctional when it comes to forward planning for changing conditions. After years of being bogged down in debate, a particularly toxic debate, no solution for capacity has been deployed, with the network now running literally at capacity, with exponentially rising fees.
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would you care to extend your explanation? I can only see this growing and growing more. Maybe i'm not seeing something that you are. thanks.
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I assume you are aware that Bitcoin has a capacity limit. The capacity limit is already being reached, every day now. It is impossible for the capacity limit to be increased without consensus being reached, in practice on the network, for a technical solution. Instead now, if more people want to use Bitcoin, they must pay higher fees than others in order to be included in the blockchain*. This fee amount has been increasing at an exponential rate for the last few months. Those who do not pay this increasing fee, don't get to use Bitcoin.
* There is some limited scope for optimizing transactions to take up less space without a network consensus change, but the space is still fundamentally limited.
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Yeah but that capacity limit is dictated by some things you're not taking into account. Like Halvin, which is the upgrade in security of the algorithms produced by the mining industry (if you can call it that way) that make them produce less and less and have to buy new machines, so taking this into account this creates a market between other cryptocurrencies, which means when bitcoin drops because of the halvin in example, you just buy another coin that is more profitable for you, bitcoin created a gigantic market that you can play with, thats why bitcoin will always be available in my opinion and always be used. At least for another 15 years, and im scared of thinking that is little time, actually in my thoughts I believe it will be more. Excuse my english if there are any mistakes, I speak spanish. What Im trying to say is that Bitcoin is the father to all this new market we are seeing these days, and I believe is practically impossible for it to fail, because of the peer2peer transactions without government or bank institutions interventions, and who doesn't loves that? I mean you're closing yourself that this world is only bitcoin, but actually now is waaaay bigger and has so much more material to make it productive that I see almost impossible for it to fail.
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Replying to your other comment here.
Yes, I agree that the wider cryptocurrency/blockchain concept will not fail. However, if you own Bitcoin, you want Bitcoin itself to succeed, not some altcoin you don't have. Bitcoin itself can fail, with Bitcoin holders paying the price, even if the wider "Bitcoin" concept succeeds.
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Gotcha, nice discussion bro. greetings from a third world country where my money is safer with bitcoin than anywhere else, lol.
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Thanks, great thread!
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Can you explain how the halving affects capacity? The coinbase reward schedule has nothing to do with capacity.
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Not with the capacity itself, youre right I expressed myself wrong, but in the movement of the coin itself towards other directions that are not bitcoin.
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I have 2 years with this world and with the mining world. I cannot believe how people still believes this concept is bad, the only logical reason i found for this is either lack of understanding or the big leaders with their self interest. Awesome article for people who is new and wants to learn how it is that this world moves (in cryptocurrency terms) and by that I mean for selfconciousness about the safety of this coin. Keep it up bro.
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Interesting article. Really appreciate you bring this to our attention. The cryptospace definitely feels a bit inflated. However we also said that about the S&P 500 40 years ago An interesting website I found: https://www.coincheckup.com I'm really enthusiastic about this site, they let you analyze every single coin out there. See: https://www.coincheckup.com/coins/Bitcoin#analysis For a complete Bitcoin Investment research.
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“Thank you. More info for this topic here - “ https://goo.gl/CxZV5Q
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