BTCUSD Where do we stand?

Hi Steemit community,

I'll be sharing few charts on BTCUSD in different time frames with possible trade setups.

DAILY UPDATE - 21/06/2018

Break of 6,427.16 few sessions back was disappointing for immediate bullish view but not really surprising as the daily time frame is not bullish, at best neutral.
The correction that started from 19,666.00 high with a sequence to 22/12/2017 low and a bounce to 06/01/2018 high projects an equal leg area at 8,728.92-3,472.17, so even though 06/02/2018 low is close, there is no reason to sell bitcoin (only gamblers and manipulators would do that), but buying here is painful in lower time frame (4h and 1h) because there is no motivated setup, but daily is a buy.

So for now, I'll continue to propose a bullish count in the daily. However, break of 5,920.72 would delay the resumption of the bullish trend, but I would not sell.
Actually, I suspect that we will see below 5,920.72 for a short lived spike to wipe out all the "small players" with buy orders ready below this level.
If that happens, we should see 4,596.14-3,332.87 for a life time opportunity to go long, but I won't sell to reach those levels.

So as for me, my stops are below 5,920.72 and if triggered, then no loss and I will stay on the side line (from a trading point of view).

Don't fight institutions/big players, they have more money than we do.

4H UPDATE - 21/06/2018

Lots of conflicting signs with break of 6,427.16 which reflects the uncertainty of market conditions: Everybody being long, there is an impossibility to go higher without fresh longs (therefore new buyers with money), and those can only come from bug players which are now testing the market to check if they can buy lower.

The positive points for those holding is that the loss of 6,427.16 has not been followed by a sell off that would have taken out 5,920.72. But this might only be postponed.
For now, I don’t want to "trade" crypto because we are up against deep pockets, now more than ever. Only clear patterns will be given a shot for short term trade (1h/15min) - I never thought I would write that but everything is new with crypto hehe.

Back to the chart, the motive 5 waves from 6,427.16 has been denied (although we had RSI divergence) by a new low in past sessions. This means that sequence from 6,427.16 low was a corrective 3 waves followed by a FLAT as a third leg of a cycle from 11,780.00 high. However, this cycle is at the moment uncomplete (reached 6,642.20-5,753.98) and is calling for more downside (WARNING HERE), however, I want to see a break of 5,920.72 before changing the preferred view here.

So, as said, no setup here. Let's see the 1h and 15min to see what can be done (I'm not dying to enter a trade but this is my job to take measured risk, so rough seas will not stop me here, just need extra caution ;-))

1H UPDATE - 21/06/2018

Bitcoin ended the sequence from 7,790.69 high at 6,120.00 with break of RSI trendline on 18/06/2018/
And therefore, cycle from 25/04/2018 is called ended, providing an opportunity for the historic crypto to resume.
Shorter term, equal leg of cycle from 6,120.00 projects 6,904.81-7,038.96 in a possible regular FLAT (3-3-5) if we have RSI divergence with a marginal new high from current levels.

I don't like to buy at current levels as risk to reward ratio is not interesting and would rather position longs at red 2 (small position size to take into consideration the higher time frame) and I don't like to sell/

Invalidation level to the upside is 6,120.00 but I will monitor 6558.95 for a truncated cycle at 6,841.81 current high.

15MIN UPDATE - 21/06/2018 (setup dated few days back on the 15/06/2018)

Initial 15/06/2018
5 waves from 6,120.00. Buy the pullback in a corrective 3 waves. Do not open stops below 6,120.00 and easy on the position size. Target around 7,000ish, to be defined when low in place. Free position on a break above 6,708.

Update 21/06/2018
Target 6,921.73-7,060.53-7,147.05
Risk Free position with stop below 6,320.00

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