The Trefis team estimates Bitcoin prices to rise over the nest few months

Image source: pixabay - mbll

Today I am referring to the article posted on Forbes - Trefis Team introducing their forecast platform - Trefis.

Trefis is a dashboard platform led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts to help us understand how a company's products, impact its stock price. The platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company's business.

Based on Bitcoin transaction volumes on the network over the coming months, Bitcoin could reach $8,500 by the end of the year. On their Trefis platform, a base case for Bitcoin forecast was created.

There are two charts that will help forecast Bitcoin prices:

1. No. of active Bitcoin users (with unique addresses)
2. Average Daily Transaction Volume

Understanding that more than 80 percent of Bitcoin has already been mined, price forecasts are focused on demand rather than on the supply.

Image source: pixabay - StockSnap

I have tried tweaking the charts on their Trefis platform to see how Bitcoin prices moves in the next 3 months. The charts seem easy to tweak based on their base model, which is a relatively simple model.

The site also shows their results between Historical and Estimated Bitcoin prices. The Trefis Estimator claims that:

"Backtesting the Trefis Estimator for average monthly Bitcoin prices between 2012 and 2017 shows that the Estimated Figure tracks the actual Historical Performance with an Accuracy Rate of >94%"
Source: Trefis

Their predictions have been observed to deviate from the actual Bitcoin prices within a range of -15 to +15 %. It would be exciting to check these predictions in the following months to see how true they will be.

We have seen many forecast for Bitcoin with varying predictions, from sky high $100,000 to low of $1000. Stock price manipulations and predictions are difficult due to the large amount of institutional investors that remain untouched in time of uncertainty.

Image source: pixabay - Leamsii

However, Bitcoin's dominant retail investors make it much more volatile to positive or negative news and the media. We hope to see the situation improve as institutional investors enter the market as long-term investors.

Because we are comparing BTC to USD, USD is our reference point with assumptions that it will remain constant. However, the US dollar faces a yearly inflation rate of about 3 percent. Hence if Bitcoin's value were to remain stable, its USD price would be dropping 3 percent every year. In other words, a constant Bitcoin price could be equivalent to a rising Bitcoin value.

I personally keep a lookout for long-term Bitcoin forecast via longforecast.com, which runs forecasts for cryptocurrencies and other commodities such as gold prices. Mathematicians on their site uses statistical methods on historical data over a range of known market factors.

Definitely worth taking a second look.

-tysler