RE: Why Bitcoin Could Fall Lower From Here

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Why Bitcoin Could Fall Lower From Here

in bitcoin •  7 years ago  (edited)

Hi CI,

Thank you for your kind reply. I feel I am speaking for the community in saying that you are providing a valuable educational service to beginners and experienced people alike. Your 100k subscribers is well-deserved and hopefully a sign of even better things to come.

Taking your points one by one:

I. "The market will always be manipulated as long as there is limited regulations and enforcements. Truly free markets aren't healthy - they are predatory. It's why we have 'limited' capitalism rather than full-on capitalism. For now, much of price action is dictated by a wealthy few."

Agreed, the wealthy and powerful run the show. All the weak can do is try to surmise the direction the wealthy are going and align their assets parallel to the prevailing agenda. Either that, or gather your friends, arm yourselves with whatever weapons/tools you have at your disposal, and wage some kind of war.

Incidentally, the predation you mention is probably some kind of war/conflict being waged on the exchanges, no? Who are the players in this war? If I bought BTC at $1000, am I waging war on the guy that bought at $10,000? Have I been enslaved or defeated by the guy that bought at $100? Is this a war with as many sides as there are investors? By entering the exchange, have I become both predator and prey? I should hate to think that I am your adversary in this arena.

II. "I don't know how much stock I put into the "store of value" argument ... It's difficult to convince the general populace that magical internet money is the new gold - especially when most of them weren't really looking for a new gold in the first place."

At the risk of splitting hairs, technically, BTC became a store of value on January, 2009 when Nakamoto mined the genesis block and the freshly minted coin was assigned a value based on the electricity used, the hardware required and the expertise in the software. Whether BTC is a store of value is not an open question; it absolutely is and has been for 8yrs now without exception.

But your broader question is whether BTC is a "good" store of value, and even beyond that, is it a store of value that the populace will accept, independent of it being good or not? A far more difficult question with many possible answers. I will admit that its volatility, as you pointed out, makes it a poor store of value, at this time. Just like the brick of a cellphone Michael Douglas used in "Wall Street" was a poor example of mobile communication, at that time. We could list endless analogies of initial technologies that were laughably inadequate at the time, but were refined by the visionary outlook of their innovators, the ironclad resolve and determination of their developers, and the increasing realization and demand of the end-users.

In BTC, I think we have all three. Nakamoto was clearly a genius-level visionary, if nothing else, to be able to set the world on fire with a 9-page white paper! It was clearly the work of a mind on par with an Einstein or von Neumann. She toiled in the dark and brought about arguably the greatest innovation since the internet itself in total obscurity without fanfare or shameful self-promotion. The core development team has been lauded for their curation of this asset for the past 8yrs. They appear to have significant short and midterm plans for BTC to address some of the technical concerns that have cropped up recently. And you yourself will have to admit there is a great deal of pent-up demand for something, anything, that might even REMOTELY resemble sound money whose supply cannot be manipulated by central banks and governments, no matter how powerful they are or become.

As to whether people were really looking for a replacement for gold in the first place, you are probably right that this is not on the forefront of most people's minds. But I do recall the media gushing over the original iPhone, stating that it was a product with features that we never knew we needed but, in hindsight, could never live without. Instead of a company acknowledging an existing demand and tailoring a product to fit, the product was so artfully created and visionary in scope that its mere existence sparked the demand. The iPhone taps into the hunger for freedom of expression, communication, efficiency, aesthetics, convenience, portable productivity - all the way up and down the psychological ladder, the thing taps into your very core. For proof, ask any 4yo child what mobile game they are playing, or the 84yo grandmother what gifts shes buying for Christmas on that iPad, or visit any Starbucks where 99% of the people will be sipping lattes while staring into their peripheral brains as though in deep, soul-searching meditation.

Its near universal adoption was the manifestation of decades of pent-up demand in the collective subconscious seeded by science fiction (Star Trek communication devices, Knight Rider watch phones) and science fact (TV remotes, Atari joysticks). Basically, this thing brought us where we thought we should be by June 29, 2007. And by the way it was gobbled up and permanently grafted onto our lives, it was LONG overdue.

Now think about a population flogged and beaten down by the powerful, abused and harassed daily, intruded upon, devalued, demoralized and dehumanized. Think about the ruling class that have essentially insulated themselves from any semblance of accountability for their actions and decisions. Ask yourself why only one person involved in the 2008 financial disaster has been convicted of any crime as far as I know, and he was a mid-level player from a second-tier institution, hardly the mastermind behind the whole debacle. Think about what the populace might be trying to communicate when we rejected Hillary and elected Trump.

A lot of people stare with amazement at the meteoric rise of BTC in 2017. It doesn't surprise me at all. The people of this world are shouting, "This is LONG overdue." They may not be able to verbalize a cogent understanding of the tech, philosophy and politics underlying BTC, or discuss its disruptive qualities, but they perceive it as an increasingly viable alternative to the inept, fraudulent, corrupt and manipulative monetary policy which seems to always disproportionately negatively affect the average person and not the parties actually being inept, fraudulent, corrupt and manipulative.

BTC is a psychological pop-off valve which expresses our frustration with a system that enslaves its citizens and punishes dissent. It elegantly combines our need to gamble with the desire to own something foundational and sound, something upon which we can build generations of real wealth. It teaches us two fundamental lessons in wealth creation: to save and to be personally responsible for the value we are saving. It combines the elation of rapidly growing wealth with the caution and healthy paranoia of being good stewards of that wealth. It forces us to grow up if we are going to take this crypto-thing seriously. Ultimately, it gives us a chance to take a risk on something that might be simultaneously profitable AND righteous.

More and more I am accepting that we are in some kind of war or conflict and that it is a rigged game to favor the powerful. If BTC can be a weapon used to balance the terms of that engagement, count me in. That alone, HAS to be worth something. Quite a lot, I imagine and hope.

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