Weekly close confirms this bear market isn't over for a while:
Weekly red candle negates 3 weeks of gains. Initially, I thought we would have more bounces on shorter time frames and boy was I mistaken. There hasn't been any demand whatsoever to buy BTC anywhere down here. Thats a big problem for people who think this bear market is coming to an end soon. I feel like I'm always negative about the market but I really don't know what else to say. This market looks pathetic, no matter how you slice it. Pick your poison. Look at the volume, look at the failed rallies, look at the consist lower highs on larger time frames, look at relative strength index. It all screams weakness.
Now I'm not gonna say a long term buy at these levels is dumb because I think we all believe the future for BTC is bright, but most investors, especially the new comers, are impatient so thats why we are where we are at the moment. They buy the hype, the big green candle and that it will never go back down again, and that this is the run that will make them "filthy rich". Its purely psychological.
In reality, the chart above shows a couple of things:
We've touched the "bottom" of this descending triangle/6k iron support/minimum price level where miners can profit. I've heard it all. One thing I can say is that once you've tested support enough times, it will break. Most of the times it does and it leaves everyone in shock. The market doesn't care about what you feel is logical. All I see is failing rallies after failing rallies on no volume or demand and a long term respected trend line which hasn't been touched in over a year, period. If be very suspicious if we didn't at least hit the diagonal trend line and instead just went up, especially after this weekly close. The target I'm eyeing in on sits at the $4500-$4940 level. I won't be opening any positions until then. If we still show signs of no demand at that level either, which is totally possible, I will be taking another stab at $2950. To be honest, I don't see BTC heading that deep only because we have tested that area already back in September of last year where it bounced off previous heavy resistance before a massive parabolic move. I think the very same will occur once we test that $4500-$4940 and then its game on. The only question is when?
We may have another couple of months to go. To some it may seem like another year but you've waited this long, whats another 8-10 weeks? The one thing I've learned in this market is to stay PATIENT no matter what. Human emotion is a powerful thing and will likely lead to you making a dire mistake. As much as you may think you're playing against other people, you're not. You're playing a game of chess against the computer. Thats all you're playing against, bots. No physical human, at least big enough to move the market, is playing this game right now. So my advice is to stay inside your comfort zone. The market will not leave you behind if you stop looking at tradingview for a day or two.
Hope this gives you more clarity on a more realistic perspective of the market. We all want BTC and the rest of the market to succeed and I feel your frustration. Remember, we are still in the early stages in what will be a major technological shift in world as we know it. Enjoy the ride! :)
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You are right many are impatient and panic sell, I don't why they panic so much. Thanks for the update.
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Anytime! Good luck!
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There's nothing wrong with being negative in a bear market. It's going to be interesting to see how the 4.5–4.9k support holds up, it might just be the bottom.
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Yeah, very true. I just wish I had better news sometimes. :D Yeah it will be interesting for sure. It could very well be bottom. Time will tell for sure.
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All signs point to a significant drop. Like I said in my post I think sub 5k to around that blue trend line is my minimum target. I hope it doesn’t but I can’t ignore what I’ve been seeing on the charts.
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