BREXIT: DECEIVED, LIED, CHEATED

This morning one of Holland's prominent opinion makers Bernard Hammelburg published a very interesting article regarding the Brexit, the UK and Gibraltar / EU breakup.

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The article is originally published in the Dutch language. With the support of Google Translate, I present you the English version.

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Undoubtedly there are a lot of Brits overjoyed the Brexit has been finally launched. But in London - admittedly, not the same as the UK - I can not find them.

Everyone I speak with, yes and no voters to the referendum, says the same: we have been deceived, lied and cheated on in unimaginable ways.

Of course I'm more curious about the stories of the Brexiteers, so those who want out of the EU, and not the elite UKIP-kind. The 'normal' supporter had one major complaint: the overwhelming amount of foreigners. If you pressed, you always hear the same 'nuance': no, it was not about Syrian refugees, nor about migrant workers from Western Europe. But those from Eastern Europe: Poland, Czechs, Slovenes. Of these there are so many they are in our way.

Is that really true? A little bit. The second language in England and Wales is Polish - not Hindi, Urdu or Arabic - that marks the position of only one group very clear. And you notice it in everyday life. Almost everyone with whom you are dealing is a foreigner, and quite often Eastern European, from the maid and the waiter to the manager of the hotel, information desk and ticket seller at the museum, the teller at the subway station, fashionable women and men in Canary Wharf (the financial district of London), the director staff a large company. The supporters of the Brexit really thought the referendum was about that, a feeling that was enhanced by the opponents who did appear as if Armageddon was preferable to a departure from the European Union.

Theresa May has not played very convenient, by striking an uncompromising tone in its article 50 letter: it is a hard separation, so let's get straight to negotiate the visitation and alimony. The reaction of the EU also testified by no empathy and diplomatic skill: the Brits have no say, they also lost their cooperation on security, and if they do not realise this, they can leave immediately and completely. And the EU finance officer is ready to claim sixty billion Euro.

The size of the Brexit-procedure is so huge, and the consequences so unclear that they will moderate their tone of course. Whitehall arrogance is as unbearable as that of Brussels. How complicated it all is, is shown daily by all the details that are under discussion already. What's it really like to be working in the field of security and counter-terrorism? Nobody knows, and so politicians and negotiators should not pretend to know. And what happens to British territories, such as Northern Ireland and Gibraltar? Spain claims Gibraltar for three hundred years, and now of course sees a golden opportunity. If that little piece of land with its 30,000 inhabitants remain British and do not belong to the EU, it is obvious by Spain the "British occupation" will be ended. The European response to May's letter states in the small print that Spain gets some kind of veto over the adoption of the final Brexit-treaty. All parliaments of the 27 EU countries shall indeed approve the treaty, and if that does not happen, the United Kingdom is actually removed from the Union without further pardon. That's not a good plan, but the Spaniards smell their victory and so will get straight on to a kind of blackmail.

What is a realistic expectation? The negotiating the Brexit-treaty probably is not going to happen in two years. But even if it does work, the negotiators may choose to take a very long implementation period, say ten years. If this is the aim - and that seems to be the case - the harsh tone will stop quickly.

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article sources [1]

media sources [1][2]

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