RE: What's Your Favorite Climate Change Study?

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What's Your Favorite Climate Change Study?

in busy •  6 years ago  (edited)

A couple of Irish scientists (father and son) did some brilliant work on the earths atmosphere a few years ago but it was never really covered by the MSM and I only found it recently. I've read through the summary of thier work (linked below) and have downloaded and printed out all three of the papers they published (only read the first one so far). What they appear to have done is disprove the 'greenhouse effect theory' which underpins the entire global warming narrative. (Is it true that one of Greta's relatives was the author of the greenhouse effect theory, I'm sure I read it somewhere recenty).

Since the man made global warming theory is dependent on the greenhouse effect theory being true, by disproving the greenhouse effect theory they have in effect disproven the man made global warming theory. When I read the summary initially I couldn't believe it and expected to find it had been debunked or something but as far as I can tell is has just been ignored. The data they used is available to the public, their calculations and formulas are available to the public and the experiments they did are repeatable.

I'm not a scientists so I am open to the idea that this could be another distraction but if these guys are for real and their experiments and data is to be believed, man made global warming is the biggest hoax ever perpetrated on mankind.

Anyway, here's a link to the summary which also links to the papers which can be downloaded. The comments are worth reading too as it's worth noting that the authors consistently reply and defend their conclusions in a polite and scientific way.

I'll be interested to know what people think of this.

One thing I know for sure. The science is not settled because science is never settled so Greta is lying when she claims it is.

https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/summary-the-physics-of-the-earths-atmosphere-papers-1-3/

Jim

Edited to add the summary & conclusion for those too lazy/busy to read the entire thing as it's a bit of a long read.

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It is often said that the greenhouse effect and man-made global warming theories are “simple physics”, and that increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere must cause global warming.

It can be intimidating to question something that is claimed so definitively to be “simple”. Like the story about the “Emperor’s New Clothes”, most of us don’t want to acknowledge that we have problems with something that everyone is telling us is “simple”, for fear that we will look stupid.

Nonetheless, we found some of the assumptions and predictions of the theory to be questionable, and we have no difficulty in asking questions about things we are unsure on:

He who asks a question is a fool for five minutes; he who does not ask a question remains a fool forever. – old Chinese proverb
So, we decided to look carefully at the theory to test its reliability. When we looked in detail at the so-called “simple physics”, we found that it was actually “simplistic physics”.

Our experimental results show that the theory was just plain wrong!

Remarkably, nobody seems to have actually checked experimentally to see if the greenhouse effect theory was correct. It is true that the greenhouse effect theory is based on experimental observations, e.g., a) the different infra-red properties of the atmospheric gases; b) the infra-red nature of the Earth’s outgoing radiation and c) the observation that fossil fuel usage is increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

However, being based on experimentally-verified results is not the same thing as being actually experimentally verified.

At any rate, it turns out that the concentration of infrared-active gases in the atmosphere has no effect on the temperature profile of the atmosphere. So, doubling, trebling or quadrupling the concentration of infrared-active gases, e.g., carbon dioxide, will make no difference to global temperatures – after all, if you “double” nothing, you still end up with nothing!

The current climate models predict that if we continue increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere it will cause dramatic man-made global warming. On this basis, huge policy changes are being proposed/implemented in desperate attempts to urgently reduce our fossil fuel usage, in the hope that this will help us “avoid dangerous climate change”. For example, see the Stern Review (2006) or the Garnaut Climate Change Reviews (2008).

The different policies being introduced specifically to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions vary from international treaties, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol (2005), to national laws, e.g., the UK’s Climate Change Act, 2008, and even regional legislation e.g., California (USA)’s Global Warming Solutions Act, 2006.

Clearly, if the greenhouse effect theory is wrong, then man-made global warming theory is also wrong. The results of the current climate models which are based on the greenhouse effect theory are therefore invalid, and are inappropriate for basing policy on. So, the various policies to reduce our fossil fuel usage, specifically to “stop global warming”, which have been introduced (or are being planned) are no longer justified.

There has been so much confidence placed in the greenhouse effect theory, that most people seem to have thought that “the scientific debate is over”. We believe that our results show that the debate over the man-made global warming theory is indeed now “over”. The theory was just plain wrong.

There may be other reasons why we might want to reduce our fossil fuel usage, but global warming is not one.

Any improvements that meteorologists can make in their weather predictions are of a huge benefit to society, because it means that we can better plan for whatever weather occurs.

The implications of our research for global warming are significant. However, for us, a more important result of our research is that we have identified several important insights into the physics of the atmosphere, which do not seem to have been noticed until now. These insights open up several new exciting avenues for future research, and in each of our papers we describe some possible research projects that we think could be informative.

These insights also have great significance for understanding the weather, and we suspect that they will lead to major improvements in weather prediction. We believe that more accurate and reliable weather predictions will be of tremendous benefit to society, in everything from people being able to make better day-to-day plans to improved agricultural planning to being better able to predict and cope with extreme weather disasters. So, we hope that our findings will be of use to meteorologists.

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Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation from a planet's atmosphere warms the planet's surface to a temperature above what it would be without this atmosphere.Radiatively active gases (i.e., greenhouse gases) in a planet's atmosphere radiate energy in all directions. Part of this radiation is directed towards the surface, warming it. The intensity of the downward radiation – that is, the strength of the greenhouse effect – will depend on the atmosphere's temperature and on the amount of greenhouse gases that the atmosphere contains.
Earth’s natural greenhouse effect is critical to supporting life, and initially was a precursor to life moving out of the ocean onto land.

That is a poor reply. The greenhouse effect is a theory which has not been proven and I suggest that the study I linked proves it wrong. Since the greenhouse effect thoery has been around and accepted for a long time I don't need to read it again but maybe you should read the study I linked and see if you feel the same way. The greenhouse effect theory posits that different levels of the earths atmosphere can have different properties but what the data and experiments in the linked study appear to show is that there is equilibrium between all levels. I don't think you realise how damaging the study is to not just the greenhouse effect theory but the entire man made global warming theory if the results/data and experiments are correct.

I've read about the greenhouse effect 'theory' and I've also read the linked study that uses experimentation and real data and appears to 'prove' it wrong. Why don't you read the study and come back and show me where they have made a mistake or where they are wrong ? I spent at least an hour reading the commments at the end of the linked study in which many people put forward arguements, all of which (as far as I could tell) were responded too by the scientists involved.

As I've said, everything they have done and all the data they used is available for anyone to check including you. It could all be bullshit of course but if is it let it be proven wrong by checking the data and experiments. The IPCC consistently make claims which are not backed up by observation yet still they continue to make more claims based on the same models which all assume that CO2 drives temps and the greenhouse effect is real. If either of those things are not true the entire house of cards falls down.

I do not have to, because many others did it already:
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/the-greenhouse-effect/
look at the comments section ;-)

In general:
I very much support! their attempt to proof basic physics and chemistry and climate science wrong! As this is would be the normal process how mistakes in science are corrected...
BUT! there are some basic principles how that work has to be done and to ensure this there is something called the peer review BEFORE you post it to the public...

.. basically: You find scientists that have a look on your findings and give you feedback if your paper makes sense...

and that's exactly what they did NOT do... and as they claim to reverse basic physics and chemical and climate science knowledge of more than 100 years but had NO one qualified check it, I just refuse to waste my time with that... hence I wrote you the links to where the science is described as it actually is....
.. I already had a similar discussion controversy many years ago... if you claim that all the physics and chemistry books published in the last 50 years are wrong you have to come up with the proof, not the other way around!

They have come up with proof but you said you ’won't waste your time’ looking into it. Is the greenhouse effect a theory or not? Has it been proven? If so point me to where. I've already posted about how the peer review process is corrupt as well as climate science in general. How do you know there are mistakes in their findings if you won't even check? Another weak reply. If they have interpreted the data and experiment results incorrectly you or anyone else including ’climate scientists’ are able to check for yourselves because they have published everything publically.

The fact that they have been attacked yet as far as I am aware nobody had been able to find problems with the data or experiments speaks volumes. The main contributor in the comments section you linked also contributed many times in the comments section of the piece I linked and every one of their queries was responded to by the authors of the study.

no.. I looked into it and my personal belief is, that they have major flaws in their papers...
but as I am not a scientist I will not make that bold claim here... and I will not elaborate about that... because I am not a physics or chemistry MSC
.. which I do not have to as there is a general accepted method of how this has to be done to be accepted as scientific work.. which they have not done..

and by the way.. they worked on papers payed for by the heartland institute defaming greenpeace for example... not what I would call indepent..

just my 5 cents

It makes no difference to me whether you have a PhD, MSC or if you work for the BBC. Your opinion/belief is of interest to me so don't shy away from elaborating on my behalf.

Your final point regarding previous work and funding has no bearing on the papers we are discussing. If there is something wrong with the science/data then let people find it and point it out to the authors.

The balloon data can be checked/verified. The experiments recreated. The equations and physical laws used can be tested/verified.

Bear in mind that the papers being discussed were published in 2013 I would have expected someone to have exposed them by no. I was surprised I only heard about this in the past few months but then I remembered, if it's not published in a trusted science journal it isn't worth discussing 😜, even if peer review can be carried out by anyone in the world with access to the internet where the all the papers, data and methods are published.

Science isn't a religion. We are all scientists.

OK.. my 5 cents:
I believe that their paper/studies actually doesn't proof their conclusion: They seem to agree that there is a GHG effect - just as described by science- but say it is less than what science claims.. and at the end conclude there is no man made global warming.. which neglects some of their prior findings.. that's the first thing I do not get.. so the question is if their experiment really does proof what they think it does... and then the discussion below my link starts in that other blog about exactly that and at the end they/he just did not respond any more at the time it was really getting down to crunch time...

.. and there are other people in that comments section as well who ask them to give their paper to a peer review as this is the best way to get expert feedback.. what they seem not have done since 5 years...

they mention all over their page that they are independent and I just say that if someone is sponsored for a greenpeace defaming paper by the heartland institute I certainly doubt their independence...
not saying this would be a reason for their paper to be wrong

Science is settled until proven otherwise, there are numerous attempts "proving" the current model wrong. Unfortunately, these either don't pass peer review or are not even submitted for peer review, or can be easily proven wrong themselves.

How could the science have ever been settled if at some point in the future it is proven to be wrong? The idea of consensus in science or that science is settled is ridiculous. The great thing about the study I linked is that anybody, should they have the time or inclination can download the publically available weather balloon data along with the formulas and calculations used in the study and check for themselves. They can also repeat the experiements. The greenhouse effect is a theory which has never been proven experimentally and it appears that it has been proven wrong by the Connelly's.

The man made global warming theory depends on the greenhouse effect theory being correct. If it is not, then the entire thing collapses.

That is why this study is so important.

Also, the peer review process and climate science in general is so corrupt it is a joke.

So, I'll ask you a little question. Who has more powerful interest in this, the fossil fuel lobby or everyone else? One of the most powerful lobbies in the history of mankind or everyone else?

The man made global warming theory depends on Co2 affecting temperature or not, but this has been proven numerous times. Empirically, through the history of our planet it has been doing that. Sometimes lagging warming caused by sun and causing a little extra before reaching equilibrium sometimes caused by extreme events.

Check out the videos of Potholes I linked in a comment above. I read a bunch of papers against global warming today and did my homework. Now you do the same and check out some of the global warming videos of potholer.

Btw, about the "study" of the two "scientists" which published this in their own journal, couldn't even get a conservative journal to accept it.

https://variable-variability.blogspot.com/2014/02/global-warming-solved-in-open-peer.html

Where are you getting your information about it being proven that CO2 drives temperatures? It has not been proven and in fact appears to be disproven by historic data. There are many problems with the man made warming theory, not least of which is the fact that every single prediction (theory) they come up with is not born out by actual observations/data which leads me to believe their models are wrong but rather than admit this they just change the parameters of their model and run it again in the hope it will tell them what they want to hear (all the models depend on Co2 driving temps being true and that the greenhouse effect theory is true)

If you did your homework you wouldn't be claiming the science is settled or claiming that CO2 drives temperatures.

I'll watch the videos but why don't you read the study I sent to because it appears to prove the very basis of the man made warming theory wrong. If you can point out where they made a mistake or how they are wrong I will be very interested (genuinely)

It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

The science definately isn't settled and it doesn't really matter who has a interest in it. The truth is eternal and what is being claimed by the IPCC is either right or wrong and based on the levels of fraud and data manipulation that has already been uncovered along with the fact that my coastal city is still at the same level above sea level as it was 20 years ago, I suggest they are wrong.

I read parts of it, then I wondered where they published and noticed they created their own peer review journal to publish it. This means probably the scientific community rejected it.
Thus, it probably means that their results are skewed.

I'm not a climate scientists neither am I investing significant amount of time in becoming one (Actually I'm getting a P.h.D in computer science) so it is easy to write a paper where you come to a different conclusion. It is difficult to write such a paper with enough evidence to convince the current scientific community.

Current IPCC climate science is based mainly on modelling and this modelling is done with two basic assumptions built into the model. The first being that the greenhouse effect theory is true and the second being that CO2 drives temperatures. If either of those two assumptions are incorrect the whole MMGW theory falls down.

It is easy to dismiss something based on the idea that because it hasn't been peer reviewed by mainstream journals it isn't worth reading but when you look into the peer review process or how corrupt the scientific establishment is you realise this is a mistake. You use the word 'probably' a couple of times as a reason to dismiss what is presented and this is what most people do. They have a religious like belief in 'science' and 'scientists' which is why we hear Greta constantly banging on about how we should trust the science and how it is settled when we cannot and it is not.

Here are a couple of videos explaining how bad things are

https://www.corbettreport.com/how-bad-global-warming-science-hurts-the-environmental-movement/

https://www.corbettreport.com/the-crisis-of-science/

Were you aware of how many experiments included in peer reviewed papers were unrepeatable? Once you start looking into this stuff it's pretty shocking.

Good luck with your PhD. At least computer science is logical (I assume). I like it when things are either true or false and there are no bones about it.

Thanks for taking the time to engage.

Future predictions are based on models, the effect off co2 on climate is mostly based on empiric data about the ice sheets and co2 levels in the past.
This coupled with models of the sun activity (also from empiric data and physics) results in a pretty strong relationship between these.

I do know a lot about the problems of peer review and not repeatable experiments. I mean, the reviewers can't simply try to repeat all the experiments before approving it, they simply don't have the time for that, they have to trust the data presented, in most cases its a question of reputation. Like, a professor at a university has a lot to lose when providing invalid data. He might lose his job easily if it comes out.

But not only that, we also have to rely on a system where other scientists after you published your study will try to repeat your experiments to try to "proof" your claims wrong.

I read many scientific studies in fields of my interest outside of computer science (as you said, Computer Science as Maths and big parts of Physics are easier since most things can be proven quite easily) and quite often I read several papers where they tried to repeat the data of another study and were not able to.

A possible way to fix the current system is by encouraging people to do so more often by rewarding this more strongly.

A possible way to fix the current system is by encouraging people to do so more often by rewarding this more strongly.

I agree. Since we are all 'peers' as far as humanity goes, more people, especially those not invloved in the scientific community should be encouraged to get involved where possible. For example, although it might be difficult for me to repeat some of the experiments done in the linked study due to lack of equipment/knowledge/skill, there is no reason why I could not find others who have the knowledge/skills/equipment that I lack. Everyone has something they can contribute and the way 'science' and 'scientists' are being portrayed as some sort of religion which cannot be questioned is dangerous. Greta is effectively telling people to not think for themselves or do any research for themselves because 'science' has settled it. This is dangerous in my opinion (and untrue) and even more so in this case because of where I believe the global warming hoax is designed to lead humanity.