Economic contraction and reductions in carbon emissions.

in carbon •  4 years ago 

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There may be no surer way to reduce carbon emissions than to lockdown industry and commerce (ostensibly to reduce pandemic risks.)

The severity of economic contraction certainly explains the 17.2% drop in carbon from Spain, where Second Quarter real GDP was down 21.5% from a year earlier according to The Economist.

Deep economic lockdown also explains low carbon emissions in India, where GDP was down 23.9% in Q2 compared to 2019. Little wonder that India's emissions fell 13.4% through August, since year-to-year GDP was down by 23.9% in the April-June quarter.

Economic contraction also takes any glow off the Carbon Emissions decline in the U.K. (GDP down 21.5%), Italy (down 17.7%), France (down 18.9%).

Germany had an estimated 12.8% drop in Carbon Emissions with a comparable 11.3% drop in second quarter GDP, which was relatively impressive by European standards.

Japan's GDP was only down 9.9%, but emissions were down by less. China's GDP was up 3.2% in the second quarter, which is why it ranks lowest in carbon reduction.

The 12.9% reduction in carbon emissions from the U.S. is the most impressive of all, since real GDP was down only 9%.

The United States - one of the strongest economies during and after the second quarter lockdowns, also attained one of deepest reductions in carbon emissions.

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What was the U.S. secret? Fracking. We replaced coal in electrical and industrial production with much cleaner natural gas.

Those who attribute many years of falling U.S. carbon emissions to vaguely-defined "renewables" (which includes burning wood with coal) are not being honest with themselves or others. Wind is now about equal to nuclear (both are small) and solar is barely significant. The big change was not fewer fossil fuels, but cleaner fossil fuels.

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