Details about a potential military intervention are now under secrecy defense. Numerous nations call for a more diplomatic option.
NIGER - The outstanding debt has been paid in full, and uncertainty reigns in the country. The ultimatum given to putschists by the Community Economic Association of West African States (Cedeao) came to an end during the course of the night of August 6–7. Under threat of military intervention, the organization has given the junta seven days to restore constitutional order and transfer power to President Elu Mohamed Bazoum.
However, the putschists have closed off the country's airspace as they cling to power. In response to the threat of interference emanating from neighboring countries, the Nigerian airspace has been shut down until a new order is established, according to a statement from the newly elected Council National for the Preservation of the Homeland (CNSP). The future of Niger depends on the political choices made by its neighbors even as tensions continue to rise.
Will La Cedeao participate in the assault?
As of right now, the Cedeao has not yet reached the military attack's upper limit. On Monday morning, no official troop deployment had been started. According to a source close to the Cedeao, an immediate military action to restore President Mohamed Bazoum is not planned at this time. She continued, "Leaders of its member countries will meet in "the coming days" to make a decision."
As of now, both sides are prepared to mobilize their resources. Therefore, if an attack is declared, things might move very quickly. After two days of work, La Cedeao finally came up with an intervention strategy on Friday to unite several forces, including those from Nigeria, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal.
Potential attack areas and the scope of the deployed resources are still classified defense. However, it is known that the Nigerian Defense Force, one of the best-equipped armies with some 200 000 soldiers, would be in charge of the operations. Nearly 50 000 soldiers may be called up for this operation, according to a military source interviewed by Le Monde; this number is considered feasible by several analysts.
The France has pledged to support the Cedeao in its endeavors. The French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna, said on Saturday, August 5, on France Info, "It is important to take seriously the threat of resorting to an intervention." In any case, the departure of the French soldiers is "not in keeping with the times."
Le CNSP asserts that "the Nigerian armed forces, as well as the defense and security forces, are prepared to defend the integrity of our territory and the honor of our country." It specifically states that "any attempt to violate airspace" will result in "an energetic, immediate response."
On Sunday, about 30,000 supporters of the military coup d'état gathered at a Niamey stadium. General Mohamed Toumba, one of the CNSP's top leaders, spoke in front of the crowd to denounce those "tapis in the shadows" and "managing the subversion" against "the march in front of the Niger." We are informed of their cunning scheme, he claimed.
The military in Nigeria has received support from its counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso, who were also elected to power in coups d'état in 2020 and 2022. These individuals claim that an intervention in Niger would constitute a "declaration of war" between their two nations. The Mali military said on Monday that a combined official delegation from Mali and Burkina Faso will be sent to Niamey to show "solidarity" with the Niger.
The "political and diplomatic" alternative
However, two powerful African nations that are not members of the CEDEAO—the Tchad and Algeria—have pointed the finger at the scenario of an armed attack. « The Tchad will never intervene militarily. According to Tchad's Minister of Defense Daoud Yaya Brahim, "We have always supported dialogue." Nearly 1000 kilometers of border separate Algeria and the Tchad from the Niger. The Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged "prudence and restraint," believing that an armed intervention may exacerbate the current crisis rather than help to resolve it. Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the president, stated on public television that such intervention would be "a direct threat" to his nation. "There won't be any solution without us," he said, fearing that if he intervened, "all of the Sahel would envelop."
In Nigeria, voices are raised as well to prevent the outbreak of hostilities. The Nigerian Senate has called on President Bola Tinubu, who also serves as the head of the Cedeao, to "strengthen the political and diplomatic option." The Nigerian Sénat demanded that Niamey "intensify negotiations with the putschists by dispatching once more a delegation."
Also mentioned is the diplomatic theory of giving the Niger an extension. The Italian foreign minister said on Monday that his country "hopes" the Cedeao's ultimatum "will be extended" and emphasized that "the only issue is diplomatic." It wasn't said that there wouldn't be a solution that wasn't war when he said, "There must be a solution.
In a tribune published on Saturday in Libération, a group of researchers with expertise in the Sahel declared, "It is necessary to prevent the catastrophic scenario of war." A further conflict in the Sahel would be pointless given that jihadist movements have been erecting barriers to their geographical expansion on the backs of the United States for many years.