On March 15, an additional 368 deaths were reported in Italy each day, and the newspaper obituary changed from one page to ten pages. Can the Italian epidemic be controlled?

According to the latest data released by the Italian Ministry of Health on March 15th at 18:00 local time, there are currently 20603 cases of New Coronavirus patients in Italy, 1809 deaths, 2335 cases cured, and a total of 24747 confirmed cases of New Coronavirus infection, compared with March 14 At 1800 hours 3590 new cases and 368 deaths were added.

On March 13, an Italian netizen uploaded a video on a social platform to compare the obituary sections in local newspapers on February 9 and March 13. The Bergamo Daily on February 9 had about one and a half pages of obituaries, and by March 13 it had ten full pages. The video has been played millions of times, and netizens commented, "This is not a number, it's all life.

In the face of the epidemic, what epidemic trends will arise under different response strategies and measures?

The chart shows that under the containment intervention strategy, the curve is steadily lowered. Only when there is no intervention, the disease transmission curve will rise sharply. At present, from the data on the 15th, the development of the epidemic situation in Italy and Spain has temporarily surpassed the same period in China However, due to different national conditions, Italy is the second-ranked country in the world with a significantly higher mortality rate.

Italy's current sharp increase in the number of infections and the depletion of medical resources can be said to be the country that has been hit hardest by the new crown virus in continental Europe. In addition to a higher base of the aging population, several potential unfavorable factors are basically the same as our situation in Wuhan in February. They are both affected by insufficient medical resources and infection by medical staff in the hospital. The disadvantages are explained in detail upstairs. Here are some potential factors that have improved:

1. Chinese medical elite has arrived in Italy

As early as the evening of the 12th, China sent an anti-epidemic medical expert group and arrived in Rome with 31 tons of medical supplies to help Italy fight the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

These people are all Chinese medical elites with precious experience and supplies in the past.

After the expert team arrived in Rome, they started working non-stop: on the 13th, they began technical exchanges with relevant local institutions; on the 14th, they went to the affiliated hospital of the Italian National Institute of Infectious Diseases; on the 14th, they went north to Milan, Padova and other severely infected areas, and to the front-line hospital Conduct a field trip. Italy has opened a field hospital in wartime, an old abandoned ward, and is even preparing to transform the Milan International Exhibition Center into a square cabin hospital. Although it may not be 100% enforceable, at least it has begun to revolve around the collection of mild patients. The principle of the goal of governance. As for whether Italy can ensure the full development of the cabin, the hospitals with or without the Xiaotangshan model are not the focus. The focus is to achieve different levels of diagnosis and treatment for different people. With our help, Iran is currently improving, and I believe that the inflection point will emerge as soon as possible through the study and hard work in Italy and its own medical level. 2. The Italian people are fully cooperating in prevention and control. In the early days of "closing the city", it was mainly dependent on local governments and police forces. However, the local governments had mixed understanding of the importance of epidemic prevention. In Italy, only pharmacies and supermarkets are still open. In order to avoid cross-infection of crowds, church services have been changed to the online form. In order to avoid the inconvenience of outsourcing for the elderly, there are youth voluntary organizations to help them. Italy has also thanked China a lot for its spontaneity. It's not just talking at this time. 3. There is a difference between the northern and southern regions before the southern region is completely occupied. According to the Economic Observer, the situation is similar in other southern regions: the cases of Valle d'Aosta, Morisse and Basilicata are not the same. To 50 cases. Views suggest that these southern regions may benefit from rising temperatures in March and April-as they are expected to have a positive impact. It can be seen that the epidemic is not serious in every region, and Italian medical and authorities believe that the increase in cases will reach its peak this weekend or mid next week. That is, from 21 to 22 February, the epidemic suddenly spread to March 22 to 24-the epidemic that is about to erupt for a month or so may appear at an inflection point. Although the main economy and resources are in the north, the incomplete fall of the south may still reduce the burden, so as not to suffer the enemy. 4. In addition, the significance of Italy's zz in Europe also determines whether it will be controlled sooner or later. Italy is the third-largest economy in the Eurozone, with the highest government debt ratio in Europe and one of the transportation centers. If Italy does not control in the end, not only the European economy will be severely damaged, but the prevention and control of each country will not be fundamentally guaranteed.