After a couple of nice days to start to week we have a midweek major rain storm developing for Wednesday into Wednesday night. It will have all the usual impacts of gusty winds to 40 mph ahead and 40 mph or more behind it, heavy rains of up to at least a couple of inches, and the possibility of coastal flooding. Unlike last weeks coastal storm that became Tropical Storm Melissa and sat around for a few days, this keeps on moving which means we will likely have one high tide cycle tomorrow evening and night that could be problematic on the south shore with a southeast wind. Fortunately we are past the peak full moon high tides so that will keep flooding to minor to moderate in some places. Once we pass midnight the winds go around to northwest and the tidal issues will diminish noticeably on Thursday.
SATELLITE
There are no issues tonight into the Wednesday morning commute. The regional radar is quiet as the rain across the south is not yet within range and skies are clear on the satellite picture for now though high clouds will arrive toward morning as low pressure develops along the Carolina coast.
Rain will develop Wednesday afternoon and will be going full force during the evening commute. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely and models are pushing the envelope to 2 to 3 inches. There is the chance we could see some thunderstorms in the mix which will drive amounts higher in some places. Winds will be picking up especially over the eastern half of Long Island where gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common let tomorrow evening into the early morning hours.
After midnight the rain should end rather quickly as the low goes into Southern New England and winds shift to the northwest. The storm will be in New England on Thursday with turbulent skies filled with leftover clouds and even the odd shower. Winds Thursday will be gusting to 40 mph or more at times and look for a wind advisory to go up at some point.
Looking at the NAM model this evening you can see the intensifying low moving close to Montauk before moving into New England. The pressure gradient is very tight both ahead of it and behind it. Winds will likely continue to be strong and gusty through Thursday night and then start to slowly subside on Friday though it will still be breezy.
We should see some sunshine on Friday. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be just in the 50s for highs. Over the weekend we will see sunshine both Saturday and Sunday as high pressure moves overhead and then offshore. Temperatures both days should rebound back to the 60s. No rain is forecast this weekend. The next cold front arrives with showers on Monday.
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
Posted from my blog with SteemPress : https://www.weatherlongisland.com/major-storm-moves-up-the-coast-wind-rain-coastal-flooding-long-island/