To Be or Not To Be [Contrarian]

in contrarian •  6 years ago  (edited)

Eureka! That moment of clarity. That moment in which you feel it all falling into place. That's what learning is about. The human mind is an incredible tool. It can be mastered. But the road to mastery is dark and full of terrors.

The mind is far from perfect. It's full of biases, bad habits, and judgements that cloud our view of reality. The true value of learning mental models is building a worldview from the bottom up that is as free of these biases, bad habits, and judgements as possible. So we can learn to see reality for what it is. When we see reality for what it is, we make better decisions. We care less about being right and more about pursuing truth. And we discover truth independently. When we can reason independently from the ground-up, we can capitalize on opportunities that others don't see. 

So many early-stage investors label themselves as "contrarian" thinkers. In the first chapter of his book Zero to One, Peter Thiel asks the reader: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"

Peter Thiel is one of the most successful early-stage investors of all time. So you might say that lots of people read his book and have tried to emulate his recipe for success through "contrarian thinking." 

Let's take a step back. Venture capital returns follow a power law distribution. One Facebook-type investment covers all the losing investments in shitty e-commerce and delivery companies.




What is true is what works in reality. Contrarian thinking has worked for hundreds of early-stage investors. It's easy to understand why.

An early-stage investor reaps a massive return when he's right and everyone else is wrong. If you and I invest in 100 companies, and my hit rate is 10% better than yours, then on average I should have 10 more successful investments than you. Thanks to the power law, that 10% improvement can be leveraged several times over in the market. Contrarian thinking pays well in this game.

Learn to master your mind, not have it be your master. Seek truth. Take nothing at face value. Reason independently from first principles. Reap the rewards.

Some resources I've found helpful:

Blogs

https://www.fs.blog/mental-models/

https://janav.wordpress.com/2013/06/26/latticework-of-mental-models/


Books

Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future by Peter Thiel

Poor Charlie's Almanac by Charlie Munger




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