28 February 2020 - Coronavirus update: time to prepare

Shopping for supplies
BJ's Supermarket, Taunton, Massachusetts
26 February 2020

I will start this update with the generalities. As officially reported, we currently have 85,981 cases worldwide, with 2,941 unfortunate souls who have died and 39,761 recoveries. That leaves us with 43,279 current sufferers whom I can only wish the speediest recovery. The mortality rate based on the above data stands at about 3.4%.

The odds of surviving this infection are not distributed evenly, however. It is almost nil for young people as it is at about zero for those under 9 years of age and no more than 0.2% for those under the age of 40. It then starts to rise with the patient's age reaching 14.8% for those over 80 years of age. Also, those who have various ailments are more likely to succumb to it than otherwise healthy individuals.

The containment efforts have likely thus far failed. Perhaps they were doomed to fail, what with the long incubation period and good survivability of the virus outside of carriers. Either way, it likely makes sense to presume we will all be exposed to this virus. Some of us may be infected; of those, some may develop symptoms and some may stay asymptomatic, while potentially spreading the infection. Of those who do develop symptoms, about 80% can expect those symptoms to stay mild. Some may develop symptoms that are severe, and some may even die. But that is no reason to let fear interfere with your quality of life as everybody dies one day, as they say.

Now there are some promising scientific developments, in the US, Israel and possibly elsewhere that may yield a treatment for, or potentially vaccine against, this virus. So potentially we will be capable of offering targeted treatment to people before long. And this is good news.

The bad news is that in the world where supply lines largely operate under the JIT (Just-In-Time) model even a short interruption may result in massive shortages. Runs on banks for people desperate to get their cash and runs of stores in pursuit of basic necessities may, in my opinion, very easily become part of the picture. In fact, to an extent that already has happened in some locations in China, Singapore, Italy and possibly elsewhere. So as many commenters had said before me - and this is an assessment I largely share - the thing to fear is not the disease itself, but rather disruptions it is likely to cause. And this brings us to a very important topic: preparedness.

As you can see in the picture above, our family is taking this seriously. The rough objective we have set for ourselves is to be able to stay at home and not enter the melee for up to two weeks if that becomes necessary. As we are working on this, I would be happy to help others by sharing perspectives, research, tips, etc. If you are in the same general geographical vicinity (Boston-Providence general area) I will potentially be happy to engage in some hands-on collaboration and cooperation. If you are further away - I may not be able to help in a hands-on fashion but would be happy to advise - and learn from you, of course - the best I can. In short, I am offering whatever help I reasonably can - and I am happy to learn from others as there is no such thing as being too prepared. And one thing I would definitely hate to see is seeing people fighting over the last loaf of bread or baby formula, so whatever I can reasonably do to prevent that, I would at least consider doing.

If such cooperation and collaboration is something you are interested in, feel free to leave a comment here or contact me in the following ways:

Email: [email protected]
Minds: https://www.minds.com/borepstein/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/borepstein
Gab: https://gab.com/borepstein

These are troubling times. Stay alert and stay healthy, everybody!

Sources

Coronavirus Fatality Statistics By Age, Gender and Conditions
Brian Wang, nextbigfuture.com, 25 February 2020

Flight attendant diagnosed with coronavirus after flights in and out of Los Angeles, reports say
Fox News, 26 February 2020

Coronavirus’s Genetics Reveal Its Global Travels
Ashley Yeager, The Scientist, 25 February 2020

26 February 2020 - Coronavirus update: untraceable cells, quarantines possible in multiple countries
@borepstein, 26 February 2020

Coronavirus breakthrough? Israeli researchers make discovery that could lead to vaccine
Aryeh Savir, World Israel News, 27 February 2020

Coronavirus Vaccine Developed in Cambridge Sent for Testing
NBC Boston, 25 February 2020

Coronavirus Map

The Coronavirus Is Causing Massive Manufacturing Disruptions
Mike Shedlock, Townhall Finance, 10 February 2020

Shoppers fight in supermarket 'within Italy's red zone' where 50,000 people have been placed in quarantine and shops have run low on food
Paul Thompson, DailyMail.com, 26 February 2020