Here's something troubling. While the states with the lowest case rates have 1/10 the COVID that the highest states have, they're all increasing at about the same log slope. (I.e. their doubling times are similar.)
This looks a lot like what I saw in Europe last summer, where very low rates in France, Germany and elsewhere gave a sense of complacency, leaving them unprepared when case counts "exploded" in the fall. In reality, they'd been doubling and doubling since mid summer.
We're seeing the same thing here. But no governor is going to implement NPIs while the body count is low, even though NZ and Australia are showing us how it works. Sigh.
That slope is about a doubling every two weeks, which means 8x higher by mid September.