A good tool to ascertain risk going into the holidays.

in covid •  3 years ago 

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https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

I previously mentioned this tool, but it is a good reminder as we head into the holidays. It will give you a rough idea of the risk that an infected person is at your gathering.

I'd use a high case ascertainment bias of 5 as there is limited testing these days and Omicron has such rapid growth. Given Omicron has a doubling time of 2-3 days or even lower, check this close to the event. The risk today will likely be significantly different than the risk in a week. Omicron will likely be dominant in the US in the next 1-2 weeks.

If you are unboosted you have limited protection against infection with Omicron. If you are boosted you should have decent protection against infection with Omicron as far as we know. Both the fully vaccinated and boosted presumably will be protected against severe disease with Omicron, but as always there's heterogeneity in that. If you are gathering with high-risk individuals be mindful of your contacts and vaccination status. We still don't know the full picture on vaccine and booster effectiveness for disease with Omicron.

If you feel like gathering, you can further reduce your risks. Be mindful of ventilation in the gathering place. Wear masks. Get a rapid test preferably day of the event or day before. You can quickly go from a negative test to a positive test, so monitor your symptoms. A test is only good at confirming your current status.

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