New CDC ensemble forecast for new hospital admissions and new weekly deaths through February 4th and February 5th, respectively. Relief for either isn't expected anytime soon.
We already are past the all-time pandemic peak in new hospital admissions (~17k). The ensemble forecast has a point estimate that would more than double the previous peak in new hospital admissions (~40k).
New weekly deaths are expected to increase in the coming weeks as well. The all-time pandemic peak for new weekly deaths is ~24k. The current point estimate doesn't have us surpassing that all-time peak, but such a scenario is within the 95% prediction interval.
We are in the worst stretch of the pandemic for hospitalizations. Fortunately ICU hospitalizations are occurring at relatively lower rates than previous waves.
We may be entering the worst stretch of the pandemic for deaths. Something I couldn't have imagined more than 8 months since broad public eligibility for the vaccines. We will have to closely monitor how deaths go in the coming weeks. We are entering the period when Omicron deaths should begin to accumulate.
