https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html
Updated CDC ensemble forecasts for new hospital admissions and new weekly deaths through February 11th and 12th respectively.
New hospital admissions are expected to plateau in the ensemble point estimate over the coming weeks. But there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.
New weekly deaths are expected to increase over the coming weeks.
We are already past the prior all-time pandemic peak for new hospital admissions which was ~17k. The point estimate of the forecast has us plateauing at ~23k. But the upper and lower bounds of the prediction intervals are wide spanning 10k to 37k.
The all-time pandemic peak for weekly deaths is ~24k. The point estimate of the forecast has us reaching ~16k, but the ensemble forecast has wide prediction intervals spanning from 10k to 36k.
The situation in Ivano-Frankivsk and Western Ukraine is getting worse.
Test positivity is 31.8% in Ivano-Frankivsk oblast. The hospitalization rate is 81.5 out of 100k. The hospitalization growth rate is 108.4%. All three indicators have been in the red for 3 straight days. Oxygen bed utilization is still low.
The Ministry of Health has already sent a proposal to put the oblast in the red zone of restrictions.
You can see the new hospital admissions have increased extremely rapidly in the last few days in Ivano-Frankivsk. Almost to the peak of the Delta wave for the oblast.
Top 2 graphs look like a volcano turned sideways. - 4the wave - Almost dome!!
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