Dine-in restaurants and Hair Salons to blame for rise in COVID cases?

in covid •  4 years ago 

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It is too simplistic to blame a recent rise in confirmed (tested) cases in several states on "reopening" of restaurants and hair salons - rather than on, say, George Floyd protests after May 26; or Memorial Day weekend travel and festivities on May 31; or (more controversially) the late May reopening of huge megachurches in FL, CA, TX and AZ. To ignore activities in which hundreds of people were bunched close together as an excuse to close thousands of innocuous small businesses makes no sense. With the possible exception of bars (it is hard to guzzle pints of ale with a mask on), any local rise in cases is more likely due to large gatherings rather than small shops and eateries.

Any indiscriminate claim that "reopening" in general was a big mistake fails on the basis of time series evidence: Too much time lapsed between reopening and new cases. It also fails on the basis of cross-section evidence: A similar surge in local cases did not happen in other countries which also reopened but did not have the sorts of mass activities that sprung up in the USA around the end of May.

As a the Wall Street Journal editors explain:

"The U.S. has recorded fewer deaths per 100,000 people (38) than the United Kingdom (66), Spain (61), Italy (57) and France (44). Death rates are a lagging indicator, but Arizona (21), Florida (15) and Texas (8) are still well below Europe. New York, which has opened up last and slowly, has a death rate per 100,000 of 161. The Southern U.S. states lifted their lockdowns gradually and at around the same time as most European countries."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-comparisons-europe-and-u-s-11593381626

Some things changed around late May in many states that did not change in Europe. But the difference was not dine-in restaurants or hair salons. Countries that never closed such business (such as South Korea) had very few coronavirus deaths, as have U.S. states that never close such businesses (such as the Dakotas).

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