A recent report from the National School of Development at Peking University, using data that 64% of the population had been infected by mid-January, estimates that 900,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the past five weeks, based on a conservative 0.1% mortality rate. This report provides detailed information on the potential underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in China, suggesting the true number of deaths may be significantly higher than officially reported.
With the sudden shift in China from a Covid-free status in early December to a surge in Omilon infections, a total of 59,938 virus-related deaths have occurred in hospitals nationwide as of January 12th, the National Health Commission revealed this past weekend. This number surpasses the previously officially recorded dozens of deaths, and while the extent of the outbreak has been widely criticized both domestically and internationally, including by the World Health Organization, experts suggest the death rate seen during the peak of the Micron wave in other countries that initially pursued a Covid-zero strategy.
The official Covid death toll in China currently stands at 60,000, however, a report from Peking University National School of Development suggests that the actual number of deaths may be much higher. Using data from the report which found that 64% of the population had been infected by mid-January, and a conservative fatality rate of 0.1%, it is estimated that 900,000 people have died in the last 5 weeks. This suggests that the official hospital death toll is likely to be just a fraction of the total number of deaths seen during the outbreak. Experts, including Zuo-Feng Zhang, epidemiology professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, suggest that this is not unexpected given the scale of the outbreak, and the fact that the official death toll is lower than seen in other countries that also abandoned a zero-Covid strategy.
As the surge of Covid overwhelmed the crematories, bodies are piling up in China.
China's latest disclosures only count deaths in hospitals, so many deaths in the country may have occurred in care homes or at home, which may explain some of the under-estimation, she said. Reports of crematories being overwhelmed across the country suggest that excess mortality is at high levels.
This group estimates that the total number of Covid-related deaths in China is around 390,000 and that the range could be between 77,000 to 945,000 based on the death tolls seen in other countries.
WHO's Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus welcomed the new figures from China, saying that it allows for a better understanding of the situation and potential impact of the waves of Covid in China. He also called on the country to continue sharing such information and provide more detailed breakdowns of state-by-state data over time.