Credit Market Contagion - how will it play out?

in creditbubble •  6 years ago 

Great article I recommend to read:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/credit-market-contagion_2641282.html

What will happen when these countries get in real trouble:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-10/seven-em-countries-at-risk-of-exchange-rate-crisis-nomura-says
?

If the Turkish Lira crumbles and the Turkish stock market crashes, foreign investors will take their money out of Turkey and into which country and which medium?

My personal guess is the United States of America and the US dollar.
The US is - despite their economic and debt-related problems - the biggest and the most stable market in the world.
Together with the FED's Quantitative Tapering (reducing the FED balance sheet by tens of billions US dollar per months, ) this should lead to a shortage of US dollar. Furthermore some EM countries have to pay their debts in US dollar which will increase the demand for the dollar.

That's why I bought some dollars with Euro and Swiss francs these days.
What's your opinion? Do you think the EM currency crises are just a temporary phenomenon?

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