Bitcoin is in trouble
Ethereum is not provably by hashrate the most secure chain by the same exact assumptions which we used to assign most secure status to Bitcoin. Ethereum now works with Coinbase and most of the major regulated exchanges and soon even Bitstamp. All the trends seem to be favoring the rise of Ethereum and the downfall of Bitcoin, whether it is the hash rate, the growth on Google trends, the dominance graph, the exchanges, it is as if somewhere by some group of people with a lot of money and influence a decision has been made to skip Bitcoin.
@LadyCryptic made me aware of where the money is flowing and it's not Bitcoin
Market cap for the total crypto space is growing a lot.
References
- https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/6csuj6/calling_it_now_short_term_top_is_marketcap_parity/
- https://twitter.com/TommyWorldPower/status/866814966862577666
- http://mashable.com/2017/05/22/bitcoin-price-surge/?utm_cid=hp-hh-pri#bGTzjikO9mqM
- https://www.inc.com/brian-d-evans/ethereum-ether-could-be-worth-more-than-bitcoin-very-soon.html
- https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/6cg5hb/today_is_important_in_the_history_of/
It's interesting to see how Ethereum already has more market cap than bitcoin had in January of this year, Ethereum is growing faster and for me is the only one capable of beating Bitcoin as the most valuable cryptocurrency.
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Interesting to see where all will go. Big changes ahead for sure
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The other side of this debate is, there's nearly 50B in altcoins and that bubble is about to pop and the vast majority of that money will be flowing into BTC pushing it at or above $3K "soon".
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I don't think it's about to pop for another 2 years. If it does pop, where is the money supposed to go? For now not a lot of money is in the space. 50 billion in the global economy is not a lot of money. It's only considered a bubble because of the rate it's coming in, but just because it comes in at a quick rate doesn't mean it can get out as quickly. High taxes, lock ups, deflation and other reasons will make it hard to get out.
Unlikely it would pop and flow to Bitcoin. It will flow to something but we don't know what that something is yet.
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I'm no bubble boy, I'm just offering up the counter-narrative which is popular among many in #price, and this guy ...
But, I do disagree with you on this point ...
We go up on stairs and come down on elevators. :)
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How? If you buy and sell at a loss then you lose money by buying high and selling low. IRRATIONAL.
If you buy low and it goes way up and you sell within 2 years then you get to pay the highest possible capital gains tax. IRRATIONAL so many have to wait before they can exit into fiat without paying almost 40% tax or higher in some places.
I realize markets are irrational, but I don't see an easy exit like there is in the fiat world. In fiat people buy into stocks and can just as easily cash out. All the banks make it easy and in a lot of cases it's handled by professionals. There are even tax efficient ways to deal with stocks. In this space the reason I say the bubble wont pop for at least 2 years, well one reason is the capital gains taxes will be extremely high for people who cash out any time before that if they are just getting in, and also the infrastructure to exit isn't really built out as much as the infrastructure to on-board.
You can't for example sell Bitcoin or Ether to buy real estate. You cannot even easily buy a cup of coffee and know the legal implications of doing that. So I think your quote doesn't apply because there isn't an elevator for most people. Only institutional investors and investors in certain parts of the world have that elevator but will that be the case that Japanese investors and Korean investors leave crypto any time soon? I think considering how much money they have, we have a long way to go.
I do think we are entering a bubble period but bubbles last for years. The housing bubble for example hasn't popped. The Dot Com bubble took years before it popped. The housing bubble is more like this bubble, as these altcoins are like digital real estate. It wont pop as long as developers keep building on it, but it's like with housing if the housing value doesn't keep going up then it can all crash down. I don't think it's like the dot Com bubble, just as houses aren't so easy to sell when prices are going down, neither will be the crypto because the price could go down and then swing back up, and then go back down, and the day traders have to measure taxes on all that but the average person wont want to deal with it.
I expect a lot of people just will buy these tokens and then not think about it while they go on with their lives, treating it like a lottery ticket. Day traders aren't the average people and while they do create bubbles, the long term holders who will wait 4-5 years wont be negatively effected because it's still early enough that almost anything you buy could be up in 4-5 years.
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I'm discussing an altcoin bubble (if one exist), which allows people to exit into Bitcoin at an elevators pace. However, Bitcoin is not immune to an elevator exit, regardless of tax implications.
The belief that Bitcoin's price is lagging behind where it should be due to the scaling debate is something I can get behind, so I don't think Bitcoin is in a bubble at all and am very bullish for many years to come.
It's inferior tech allows competitors, but a "Bitcoin maximalist" would tell you that any altcoin feature could be implemented in/on Bitcoin at some point (and I believe even in the video I link above they mention the "DCR proposal", that wasn't).
It's the "at some point" that may end up allowing one or more of the altcoins to gain even further ground on BTC, but BTC is what it is and the others are what they are and can all coexist without the "who's going to win?" that seems to go on constantly.
What if ... they all win?! =)
I don't want to cash out into fiat currency. I want to get rid of fiat currencies. #financial-terrorist
I don't think we're in disagreement on much, outside of how fast a price can fall.
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So you do think people will even if all in Bitcoin decide to just get all the way out of crypto and pay unknown tax consequences? The IRS is already cracking down on Coinbase.
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I haven't really put a lot of thought into this or heard views either way, so I'm just going off of a gut feeling on this specific question.
People are irrational and I believe that most don't even think about tax implications and some of those are probably not even aware of their existence.
If Bitcoin started nosediving, yes I think the majority of small hodlers would sell into fiat instead of altcoins or hodling BTC for the ride.
I would assume a 50/25/25 split on medium hodlers, just for safety since I'm guessing. 50% would hodl, 25% would hedge into altcoins, 25% would buy USD ... all depending upon how big a dive in price we're talking about and the bigger the dive, the more those percentages would change.
You, I and most people really into crypto are aware of the IRS situation, but the majority of the people I talk to that are new to crypto are either not aware, don't think it's a big deal, will take their chances or don't really give a shit ... "cuz I got guns" ... lol.
With large hodlers, I will assume most all are going to do the right thing, whatever that is for their situation.
I don't know what the split is or if anyone knows how much of the current supply is owned by large, med, small hodlers, but for shits & giggles I'm going to say the majority of BTC is held by medium players (pick your own #'s, whatever is "medium" to you) and that there are more small players vs whales. But that sounds like a lot of people that could cause a very irrational panic sell into fiat, based off of statistics I've pulled from my ass on the fly.
Sell! Sell! Sell!
#lines #circles #arrows
:)
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Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
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Good article, thanks! I think BTC will maintain crypto-currencies leadership for some time, BUT in the long-run ETH will take over, and who knows what others alt currencies will improve them as well... SO in within 1 year BTC will reign, and in 2 or more ETH will be. Be prepare for the coming financial collapse where the definite shift from FIAT Currencies to physical Gold & Silver & Cryptos will take place.
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Bitcoin is more like the grandaddy that everybody loves but everybody also waits to die.
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It is just a question of time before altcoins overtake bitcoin.
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nice post :) look also at this post :
https://steemit.com/cruptocurrency/@vbnm21/free-mining-free-coins-free-eobot-com
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I have followed u will u follow me
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resteem and upvote for you....
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I think bitcoin will be like gold, grandpa but valuable :D
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Will Bitcoin be only for the rich (and early adopters who held on tight), and the rest for your day-to-day spends?
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Nope. Why will we need Bitcoin at all if we have Ethereum? Ethereum is a better store of value, especially after ti moves to proof of stake. It is also more secure. It has better governance. It's more flexible.
I see Ethereum eventually having the market cap and position of Bitcoin, but how long will it take is anyone's guess.
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Ethereum had the chance to also learn from flaws in bitcoin and provides the foundation for any other coin to be successful as well - it's inclusive - not exclusive. It does not matter which coin will win any position over the other. What matters is that crypto enters the mind of the fiat addicts - steady but focused along the mission and the promise of a better world ;-)
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Even if Ethereum does have the same market cap as bitcoin it still won't cost as much per eth. The only way for that to happen is if ethereum gains a market cap of 225 billion. Could happen but it would take some time and by that point cryptocurrency would Probably be mainstream. Or investors could pull their money out and it all could come crashing down... Anything is possible :)
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dana, ERC20 tokens are vulnerable. is a matter of time before something real bad happens once again.
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Yes some smart contracts will be vulnerable but I doubt most people care right now.
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I wish I knew....both seem to fill a need ...if you follow Andreas Antonopolis...it's like comparing apple and an orange...they both fill a need and can co-exist nicely
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Ethereum can do everything Bitcoin can do, while the reverse is not true. Bitcoin's only advantages over alts are derived from a superior network effect. Without that, there is no reason to expect Bitcoin to continue to exist as anything more than an obscure niche.
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Bitcoin is capped at 21M coins....which is looked at in terms of market cap. Watch Andreous Antonopolis talk about bitcoin and ethereum....he makes some great points.
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Every crypto has a supply limit of some kind. Many have exactly the same deflationary curve as Bitcoin but with higher throughput potential. Some are even more deflationary than Bitcoin. Many would argue that Bitcoin's particular choice of supply curve is in fact a disadvantage vs others like Monero and even Steem.
I agree that the deflationary curve of Bitcoin is preferable to Ethereum's curve, but I don't think it is a major advantage. Ethereum also has the advantage that currency is frequently tied up in smart contracts, which constrains supply further in practice.
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When I read company's like Fidelity Investments mining bitcoin and their CEO saying they are on board...then you know it means something. I think both will do well.
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just because it's logical for something to fail doesn't mean that it will. Look at Apple, if it's marketing wasn't as good as its product. It probably wouldn't have succeeded like it did. And that's exactly what bitcoin has done. Branded itself as the future of money. It has a badass image. I mean it's ironic how it use to fund drug trafficking and now it's saving families from poverty in foreign countries. it's the bad boy of crypto. In the future rappers will rap about it, just like they do with Uber and airb&b. Yes it has no intrinsic value, yes it's an old dinosaur of a technology, yes it's slow and cost a shit ton and yes we don't understand how the hell its worth almost $5000 a coin. But it's Bitcoin BTC so it's ok. Because just that name means gold. And whoever has the gold... makes the fuckin rules.
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I don't think any alt-coin can topple Bitcoin! The speed with which businesses are accepting bitcoins as payment is way ahead of other alt-coins.
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With all the BTC value rise, I didn't realise the market cap of BTC dropped that much! Very enlightning.
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Market cap and market value aren't the same. The market value dropped a lot. Look at the dominance.
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Nope it's not.
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