The shoe shine boy theory is quite a good signal. However, like a lot of things, it's easier to recognize it in hindsight and also hard to accept and act on when you are in the midst of a bull run or closing in on a market peak.
Last December, I spotted but failed to act on a shoe shine boy moment and got rekt in the mega bear market afterward. Been regretting it ever since.
I know very well what you mean. I like to think that I'll be able to easily identify it next time around. Maybe too easily.
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