Hey there Steemians, good afternoon from the Netherlands,
A question that is haunting me more and more as the days go by is one that is closely related to the event also named the Flippening. This refers to ETH closing in on the market cap of BTC and possibly taking over the #1 spot amongst the crypto currencies.
As ETH is gaining in popularity and has had a magnificent run this year, so far, it will probably not take very long for ETH to overtake BTC in terms of market cap. My personal view puts ETH in the lead by 15 July 2017.
My questions for you are:
- Will the upcoming BTC fork have a significant impact on the rate at which ETH is closing in on the BTC market cap?
- What do you think will happen to the price of ETH when it overtakes BTC? Where will it end up?
- Where do you think the BTC market cap will more likely move to and why? Will it move to ETH or LTC for example. The reason that I would like to talk about this is that it would be easy to think that it will be most beneficial to ETH. But at the same time I can imagine that the similarities between BTC and LTC will possibly prompt market cap to move to LTC and drive the price of LTC up significantly.
- Last but not least, where will the fork leave the BTC price in your opinion?
All very relevant questions for the coming weeks but important to have a good perspective and share our knowledge to 'up' the chances of positioning ourselves well and make good gains on what is coming up.
Also, if you are invested in BTC at this point what are the actions you are planning to take to protect yourself. Please share so that we can learn from your insights.
I hope this post leads to a good discussion. Can't wait to see who weighs with their two cents! Thank you in advance.
If you enjoyed this post please do not forget to upvote, to follow me (as there is much more to come) and to resteem which will get many more people involved in this discussion.
Have a great day and for now... HODL as we shrug off yesterdays downward correction :)
nice article follow back!
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Thanks, will do!
@Ozz
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There is 4x more ETH in circulation than BTC. The market cap ao ETH would need to be 4x that of BTC for the coins to be of equal value.
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Thanks for your reply @dogfried.
Interesting point but in my opinion that does not hold up as the market cap of ETH is 75% of BTC approx so according to your calc. the price of ETH should be around 470 USD. This is my point exactly. I find it difficult to assess where things should be price wise. The reason for this is most probably that the price is currently dominated by expectations and not so much by the metrics as you propose. What do you think?
Have a great day,
@Ozz
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It's an interesting time, isn't it? From what I see, the Flippening will happen sooner than later. We're closing in on ETH/BTC of 15% again. Once it reaches 17.7% ETH will be king of cryptocurrency for the time being.
To answer your questions, yes ETH surpassing Bitcoin would have a psychological effect on the market. Looking at nearly every article over the past year, those projecting years forward kept stating Bitcoin to have a majority percentage of the pie. Yet, that just may not be the case. This space moves so fast, it's mind boggling to realize that Bitcoin had 90%+ marketshare back in January. Coming back to the point, we may see some BTCers jumping ship temporarily and prices fluctuating to reflect this. But that's a very short term look at things.
The big issue is with the Fork and the price of BTC, and it's recent heaviness may be reflecting that, along with the general transaction issues we have all be facing recently. There is uncertainty, and investors hate uncertainty to this degree. If Bitcoin splits into two currencies (three by one account) or manages to stay the course as one is a bit too much stress for some to take. Until there is a clear path, I personally chose to liquidate a majority of my BTC position until August when a clearer direction is set. That doesn't mean anyone else should do the same, but I'm just not comfortable with where we are right now.
With that said, HODL isn't a terrible strategy in general. Everything in this space is a blip in time. Tons of upside left to go To the moon!
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Hey there @gamervaeda, thanks for your thoughts! Where do you think the majority of BTC capital will flow in to? ETH, LTC, others or cash?
@Ozz
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I imagine it'll be spread out a bit. The fact that BTC has dropped from representing nearly 90% of the overall market cap down to 40ish% now highlights the growth of the space in general. There are more places to legitimately invest in (at least speculatively). Right now we see LTC finally seeing it's run up, Zcash, Dash, and many others. So, I don't think a majority will go in one direction or the other, but it's smart to diversify at this stage since options do exist. Ultimately some will just pull out entirely, some will pull a portion out, others will diversify, and the last set will just keep their eyes closed because they want to simply HODL. No strategy is wrong based on the information we have right now.
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Thanks for your insights. It is true that in this market where things are till looking for their true value it is very hard to come up with strategies bases solely on analysis. News, technology and gut feeling play a big role at this point and from that perspective. I am trying to go for intelligent diversification and trying to mentally step into the shoes of new money entering and BTC fears and what would I do in their shoes. I try to make sure that I am waiting in the right spots for the coming inflows. Also, gold and silver are a great investment at the moment! Nice point to buy in if you have not already.
@Ozz
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