Wow that's a lot of information. Thanks. What are the target prices in your excel analysis based on?
RE: Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 3 Day 1: Reviewing progress, the Swiss connection
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Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 3 Day 1: Reviewing progress, the Swiss connection
I haven't seen the comments before. Sorry it has taken so long to reply. The target price is 50% above the August 26 price in three months. I started with a 50% probability (a coin flip). I thought three months would give crypto coins a chance to overcome any blip from the July-August rollercoaster. The 50% target was pretty arbitrary (it works out at four times the original price in one year). I was more interested in seeing how much developments (rather than simple investments) were reflected in the price, though price movements are obviously also a stimulus. Hope that helps you understand what I am after.
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