Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: scoring the news of the past month

in cryptocurrencies •  7 years ago 

5 June 2018

May 2018 has been an exciting month, with almost all cryptocurrencies drastically down in price. Some excitable commentators spoke of a 'crash!'

At the same time, no-one had a serious explanation of why: more Mt Gox sales? U.S. action against crypto-investing? US tax return manipulation? Ali Baba and Paypal's rejection of tokens? Who knows?

At the same time, there were lots of interesting developments. In fact, so many I may have to do this more than monthly.

Here's my scoring according to potential: 5% for a definite action (positive or negative) — not many of those, 3% probable, 1% possible changes in the probability of success or failure.

Global

Bittrex Now Allows Fiat Purchases (for approved corporate customers (BTC, LTC, XLM 2%)

NASDAQ Exchange Announces Support for Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Stellar (BTC, LTC, XLM)

Cryptocurrency Firms Announce Changes to Comply with GDPR (CCN, 1%)

Kazakhstan President Calls for Global Rules on Cryptocurrencies under UN Oversight (ccn, 1%)

United Nations Development Programme to Bring Crypto-Funded Solar Energy to Moldova(bitrazzi, 2%)

Investment Platform Etoro Launches in the US with 10 Cryptocurrencies (bitcoin.com, 2%)

National

Norway's Largest Bank to Explore Applications for IOTA’s Distributed Ledger Technology (IOTA, 1%)

Bitbay Exchange Moves to Malta After Last Polish Bank Stops Service (bitcoin.com, 5%)

S.Korea's Bithumb Crypto Exchange Bans Accounts From 11 Countries (cointelegraph, 2%)

Xapo Among 30 Cryptocurrency Firms Expanding to Crypto-Friendly Gibraltar (cryptoglobe, 1%)

Marshall Islands Officially Make Crypto Their Sovereign National Currency (cryptoglobe, 5%)

Argentinian Bank to Use Bitcoin for Cross-Border Transactions (newsbtc, 2%)

Switzerland Government Plans To Create A National Digital Currency (bitnews, 1%)

US SEC Launches Fake ICO Site to Raise Awareness (bitrazzi, 3%)

Swiss Blockchain Startup envion AG Reports Suspected Fraud in [EVN] Crowdfunding Campaign (EVN, 5%)

Poland Becomes First Country to Put Banking Records on Blockchain (the-blockchain, 5%)

Business

Average ICO Investor Makes 82 Percent Profit: Boston College Researchers (CCN, 5%)

“Blockchain will help reduce fraud in gaming skins trading” — Dave Anthony, founder of Call of Duty (WAX medium, 1%)

Swissport Eyes Use Of Blockchain In Cargo Handling And Passenger Services Businesses (coinjournal, 1%)

Blockchain Micro-Learning Platform to Help Students Earn as They Learn (cointelegraph, 1%)

Crypto Asset Management Just Got A Lot Easier (bitcoinnews, 1%)

Ali Baba and PayPal Reject Cryptocurrency as a Medium of Exchange (cryptocurrencynews, -2%)

Cryptocurrencies

CLN:The First Community Currencies are Live! (5%, CLN)

Japan's bitbank achieves number one in 30-day Ripple (XRP) volume (1%, XRP)

Waves addresses wave of fake news, headquarters in Switzerland (1%, WAVE)

Tezos Confirms Beta Release As Bitcoin Suisse Adds To Lawsuit Controversy (1%, TZ)

Crypto Collectible™ ‘Ether Online' Partners with WAX and OPSkins Marketplace (WAX, medium, 5%)

IOTA is part of the Climate Chain Coalition (IOTA News, 2%)

UN's Project Services Arm Partners With IOTA to ‘Expedite' its Mission With Blockchain (cointelegraph, 2%)

Wanchain partners with Quantstamp for auditing and ecosystem growth (cryptoninjas, 2%)

China Has Found 421 Fake Cryptocurrencies (bitcoin.com, 3%)

And much more. These are just the stories I found most significant. And I just skipped over the predictions of how high crypto-currencies would rise — Boring...

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