- We then moved over to EUR/USD, which is putting in the opposite of the bearish move that took place in 2014-2015. That was when markets were attempting to front-run the start of ECB QE, and when QE did actually start in Europe in the second week of March, 2015, EUR/USD quickly put in a low as the market then ranged until December of 2016. But more recently, we’ve seen traders bidding the Euro higher under the presumption that the ECB will need to walk away from their massive QE program as growth and inflation has started to show with a bit more consistency in the bloc. This has many looking to Jackson Hole for a potential announcement from ECB President Mario Draghi around such a scenario; but the ECB meeting on the calendar two weeks later might make for a more amenable backdrop. The prerogative around EUR/USD going into Jackson Hole is to look for a deeper retracement. While current support has been holding, the lows are sliding-lower, indicating waning bullish support at current levels. The areas around 1.1600 and 1.1500 could open the door for a bullish continuation scenario in EUR/USD.
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