That is the challenge isn't it @swiftpain -- there really isn't a substantiated method or historical corollary to make a reasonable valuation. There is a path to 0x as well as a path to 1000x for many projects. I would argue that the only viable investment options are to, one, buy and hodl without even looking at the day to day market swing -- the class, buy and forget about it for 10 years, or two, run an extremely discipline trading plan taking asymmetric risk and locking in gains early and often.