16/02/2019/12:00CET
Some are pointing at a bull flag pattern appearing in BTC, but is it a real on or not? Lets take a look...
So this is what the chatter is about...
BTCUSD daily on bitstamp
- This is what is commonly known as a bull flag pattern. A sharp upward movement and then a slow retracement as early buyers to the upleg take some profit.
- The next move in a classic bull flag is a renewal of upward movement.
- There is a slight upward bias to the volumes but nothing exciting
My call is that this is not a bull flag. Why?
- My thesis rests on the fact that bull flags normally appear when we are above moving averages
- I looked back into the #btcusd charts to search for historic cases of bull flags and could only find one minor case where most of the moving averages were still above price action.
- Maybe the more interesting fact was that sole case was at the bottom of our last bear market.
So my dears, dont get too excited yet.
I think we need to see price action sustain itself above the 100 dma (sitting at 3900usd) before we can speak of trend reversals.
But offcourse we need to have some positive action to get there. All I am saying is that the uncertainty in the trend is too high for placing bets unless you are glued to your screen.
My gut tells me we will have a long term double bottom before the base is in. That means a retest of 3100usd.
Do not be freaked out by this. It would be healthy. It would be the very last shakout.
A buyin as we bounce off a retest of 3100 could be one of the best bets you make in your life! I would only do it with a stop to catch me if we go for a lower bottom.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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