Xue Hongyan: virtual currency and then welcome the strongest supervision, what will happen in the future?

in cryptocurrency •  7 years ago 

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will shut down all the domestic virtual currency exchanges, together with last weekend's new financial reports, it seems that the domestic virtual currency transactions more fortunate The

In fact, yesterday (September 13), China Internet Finance Association also issued a letter prompted the risk of virtual currency transactions, stressed that "Bitcoin and other so-called" virtual currency "lack a clear basis for the value of the market speculative atmosphere, investors need to strengthen the risk Prevention of awareness "and called on members to" do not participate in any of the so-called "virtual currency" related to the centralized transaction or to provide services for such transactions.

Whether it is the exchange of banned or to investors to remind the risk, once again the counter currency and other virtual currency regulation into the spotlight, the relevant analysis done a lot, can refer to the author's recent article "Bitcoins regulation New Deal comes? We may need some differentiated ideas "," a tangled question: what is the value of Bitcoin? " "Here, simply add a few words.

In fact, from the content point of view, the mutual gold association's appeal and the end of 2013 the People's Bank and other five ministries issued "on the prevention of bit currency risk notice" the same vein, still do not recognize the virtual currency "payment" attribute, To provide financial support for virtual currency transactions, prompting investors to pay attention to risk and so on.

From the point of view of regulatory strictness, our attitude towards Bitcoin is still basically consistent with that of the mainstream international countries. After all, only a few countries have recognized the payment properties of Bitcoin, and most countries are still only recognized as a kind of High-risk investment products exist. Although the recent domestic trend on the supervision of special currency, also did not deny the investment properties of Bitcoin.

Many people are concerned about the impact of strong regulatory currency on the virtual currency, in fact, as a kind of decentralized, do not rely on any single country's new "asset" form, the development of virtual currency fundamentally depends on two aspects, one Is the international scope of the recognition and consensus, the more people recognized, the prospects will be better; the second is the virtual currency where the chain of its own development prospects, as the public chain, the stronger its resilience, a perfect ecosystem The higher the degree of centralization, relying on the virtual currency on which the more development of the foundation.

Therefore, the virtual currency has always faced the main risk, but also from these two aspects: First, whether the mainstream countries can be recognized, can enter the public crowd; Second, the development of blockchain can break through their own technical bottlenecks, With the ecological circle more and more complex, the interests of all parties can be coordinated and so on.

On the first point of view, the current bitcoins in Japan, Australia, and other countries have been initially recognized, but in the United States, Europe and other countries of the recognition will be a lot worse. The most critical reason lies in the potential challenges of its natural "payment" attribute to the authority of the French capital, and in the areas of cross-border capital flows, anti-money laundering, and criminal financing. On the alternative to the problem of money, in fact, more and more people have realized that the virtual currency itself, the technical limitations of the decision to replace the French currency, but for the United States and Europe, are holding a strong currency around the world, Its determination to defend the sovereign status of money is far stronger than other countries.

At the same time, the trouble of foreign exchange control, anti-money laundering, crime financing and other areas is also a problem. The disappearance of these "troubles" depends on the progress of regulatory technology. After all, only when regulators can really control the flow of virtual money, Money is likely to enter the general public, into conventional investment goods.

On the second point of view, the real estate of the Bitcoin chain itself will soon be challenged to split. As early as August of this year, with the isolation of witnessed the deployment, the Segwit2x working group announced its next three months of development plans, according to miners and enterprises agreed to the New York consensus, continue to promote 2MB block expansion. The plan explicitly states:

"In November 2017, that is, after about 90 days of activation in the isolation of witnesses in the Bitcoin blockchain, Bitcoin miners will generate blocks between 1MB and 2MB in size, Network expansion. At present, more than 90% of the poles network is expected to be involved in mining on this block. "

On the other hand, the Core development group plans to introduce the new Bitcoin Core client Bitcoin Core 0.15.0, The version will not support SegWit2x nodes. Means that the nodes within the chain must be selected for two, one is not consistent, that is split the outcome, then, bit currency will once again divide into two. At least from the current point of view, the next two months, bitcoin bifurcation seems to be still a high probability event.

In view of the above reasons, the future of the currency and another virtual currency trend, there will be a lot of uncertainty, investors still have to avoid risks. Speaking of here, then long-winded a few investors education. In fact, many investors do not know the risk of investment, but they are chasing high-yield, naturally, have to bear the corresponding risks. As long as we pursue high-yield mentality does not change, whether it is self-discipline or publicity, the role played by relatively limited.

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