0:00
is the ultimate Bitcoin cheat sheet that
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you need to know going into the end of
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this year and 2025 as you know we're
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already in the banana zone so we'll be
0:09
talking about this in a lot of detail in
0:11
the next few charts so subscribe to the
0:14
channel for more videos like this in the
0:15
future like this video if you enjoy
0:16
content like this going forward and
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let's dive right into it so we're very
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familiar with the boring Zone and the
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banana Zone the boring Zone tends to
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occur for quite a few months after the
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harving event but that tends to proceed
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parabolic price action towards the
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upside and we've seen this across Cycles
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from 2012 to
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2016 and of course 2020 to then really
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transitioning into this cycle 2024 and
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now we are in the banana Zone very
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firmly and as you can see we've been
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talking about this reaccumulation phase
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for a long time and one of the things to
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really take note of is that this re
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accumulation phase in 2020 post Haring
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reaccumulation that lasted 163 days in
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this cycle we saw that reaccumulation
1:09
phase elongate and extend by an
1:13
additional 45 days or so and that's
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really important to take note because if
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we're considering a parabolic phase from
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2020 which lasted 385 days can we really
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consider a copypaste scenario
1:30
based on the fact that potentially this
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reaccumulation phase has potentially
1:37
eaten into our parabolic phase so if we
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talk about 160
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days and then we have those extra 145
1:47
days that otherwise could have been in
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the parabolic upside phase does it mean
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that this reaccumulation phase at into
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this parabolic upside phase or are we
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going to actually see parabolic phase
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extend a little bit and from my
2:02
perspective I think this would mean that
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the parabolic phase is a little bit
2:08
shorter and it's better to talk about it
2:10
in worst case scenarios because that
2:13
would just mean that this parabolic
2:15
phase in the cycle could be shorter by
2:17
45 days and and let's just entertain
2:20
that for a second because when we're
2:23
talking about this banana Zone things
2:25
really do go parabolic we've seen that
2:27
so many times in the past and let's just
2:30
talk about some of these zones because
2:32
we'd see uninterrupted upside small dips
2:35
on the upside and very few Corrections
2:39
in the middle so these Corrections tend
2:42
to occur those tend to be fantastic bide
2:46
opportunities especially if you consider
2:48
the first major Corrections so we had a
2:51
first major correction here in the 2016
2:54
cycle and then a second major correction
2:56
but the third major correction that was
2:58
already the end of the bull market so
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going back to 2020 here here we have a
3:03
dip here we have that first major
3:04
correction maybe a second major
3:07
correction and then we don't get a third
3:09
major correction so we do see the bare
3:12
Market develop after that bull market
3:13
Peak so going back to 2012 for example
3:18
we see very few moments of rest Spite
3:22
and pulling back for bitcoin's Price
3:24
action so once we do
3:27
crash after a 300 day
3:30
parabolic upside period that tends to be
3:33
the end of the bull market so we're
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probably going to be getting a dip at
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some
3:39
point right we're probably going to get
3:44
a price Discovery correction at some
3:48
point as we've seen in the past we might
3:51
get a second one in the future as well
3:54
as we've seen in the
3:56
past but in the meantime we're going to
3:58
see price Discovery uptrend number
4:02
one and so this is really that sort of
4:04
ultimate cheat sheet that's going to
4:06
really guide you over these next few
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months and
4:11
2025 we have that first parabolic
4:13
uptrend and that dipping there here
4:16
first parabolic uptrend before that
4:18
dipping so that's the first parabolic
4:20
uptrend then we get that
4:23
dip which across Cycles tends to happen
4:26
we then see the second parabolic upside
4:29
as you can see here cross cycle and then
4:33
of course that major correction which
4:36
essentially you can just do this right
4:38
because we see a correction here a
4:40
correction here we'll see a correction
4:41
here as well at some point and then
4:43
maybe one one final correction near the
4:46
top and that just gives us an idea in
4:50
terms of the road map of what to expect
4:53
going forward but if we're talking about
4:56
these reaccumulation phases this was 160
4:58
days after having this was slightly
5:00
longer at 205 days after the Haring 2016
5:05
gives us a bit more clarity on the fact
5:07
that this was 150 days after having 154
5:10
days after having that this
5:12
reaccumulation phase took place but then
5:14
you can actually see that the parabolic
5:16
phase of the cycle actually lasts 350
5:18
days so if we're comparing 2020 in that
5:23
regard the 2016 phase was slightly
5:26
shorter so we have 385 days parabolic
5:30
upside in 2020 357 days parabolic upside
5:33
in 2016 so are we seeing some sort of
5:37
extension in the parabolic phase from
5:40
2016 to
5:42
2020 and so it's a little bit there are
5:44
quite a few variables because we're
5:47
seeing an extension in the
5:48
reaccumulation phase by 45 days and if
5:51
we're
5:52
comparing the 385 days of 2020 and 360
5:57
days of 2016 then there there's an
5:59
extension in the parabolic phase of the
6:01
cycle by
6:04
some 30 days almost so if we've extended
6:08
by 45 days in the reaccumulation phase
6:10
and we tend to see some extension by 30
6:15
days or so in the parabolic phase of the
6:17
cycle across time then does this
6:20
extension then cancel out with that
6:24
potential extension in the parabolic
6:26
phase of the cycle that we tend to see
6:28
overall I talk about this in a lot of
6:30
detail in the Rex Capital newsletter in
6:32
my most recent newsletter so feel free
6:34
to check out the link in the description
6:36
down below and feel free to read and
6:38
really find out what I talk about and
6:40
how I come up with the idea that maybe
6:42
we do see a slightly earlier peak in the
6:45
bull market as a result of the
6:48
acceleration that's still remaining in
6:49
the cycle remember we broke out 2 weeks
6:53
before schedule in terms of the 214 days
6:56
after having where we tend to see new
6:57
alltime highs we broke out 205 days
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after the having so a bit of a 2 we
7:03
acceleration there but that's pretty
7:05
phenomenal because when we peaked in the
7:07
first old or new alltime high at the
7:10
time this was an acceleration of 260
7:13
days 260 days and we narrowed that down
7:16
to just 14 days which is impressive
7:19
dramatic but nonetheless there is a
7:21
lingering rate of acceleration in this
7:23
cycle that we simply cannot ignore and
7:25
if we just take away 14 days from this
7:28
potential period here we factor in the
7:30
fact that we have 45 days right over
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here and maybe we do see an extension in
7:36
terms of parabolic upside across phases
7:39
and across Cycles then really what do we
7:43
come down to we come down to a
7:46
conservative estimate of approximately
7:49
300 days and that just gives you a bit
7:52
of an average it factors in the worst
7:55
case scenario that we top out a little
7:57
bit sooner factors in the acceleration
8:00
in the cycle it factors in the extended
8:03
reaccumulation phase in this cycle it
8:05
factors in quite a few variables that
8:08
most people aren't going to factor in
8:09
because it's not really engagement
8:11
worthy whereas here we're actually
8:12
trying to come up with a realistic road
8:14
map and plan to Financial Freedom and
8:18
that's what we always do here on the
8:19
channel on my Twitter on my ex we always
8:22
do that in the re Capital newsletter so
8:25
if you haven't signed up to the
8:27
newsletter feel free to click in the
8:28
link in the description down below but I
8:31
think it's really important to also talk
8:33
about diminishing returns and the fact
8:36
that we are exiting this reaccumulation
8:38
phase of the cycle we always see
8:41
reaccumulation around old alltime highs
8:43
we tend to see these ranges be either
8:47
very short very zigzaggy and very
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volatile very short again or extremely
8:54
overextended in terms of time 205 days
8:57
let's repeat that but then inevitably we
9:00
transition out of that phase and you can
9:03
see here that of course we tend to see
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phenomenal upside to the next bull
9:07
market Peak the final new alltime high
9:11
that we get before the bare Market but
9:13
of course we have to understand that
9:15
there is diminishing returns involved in
9:18
each of these cycles and that doesn't
9:20
mean that we're going to struggle in
9:23
this cycle but we have to be cognizant
9:26
of some of the changes that inevit occur
9:30
in the
9:31
maturing asset class that Bitcoin is and
9:34
what's interesting is that this chart
9:35
simply can't keep up with the price
9:37
action because Bitcoin right now is at
9:41
912k and that's a little bit too quick
9:44
for this price chart to keep up and the
9:46
BNC the Bitcoin liquid index it's great
9:49
to just showcase history dating back to
9:52
even 2011 but does struggle to keep up
9:54
with the price action in real time but
9:56
nonetheless I do digress if we talk
9:59
about diminishing returns and we think
10:01
about maybe having having some of that
10:04
diminishing some of those returns then
10:06
that still gets us into 150 130 120 so
10:11
there is still upside left to enjoy for
10:14
bitcoin's Price action and if we talk
10:16
about some of these phases in terms of
10:18
length
10:20
then this is something we get to enjoy
10:22
in terms of a 300 day window for the
10:25
parabolic phase of the cycle and the
10:27
parabolic phase of the cycle isn't by by
10:29
any means smooth sailing you can see
10:32
that we tend to see Corrections on the
10:34
way up those are your moments for dollar
10:38
C averaging into the market but it's
10:40
important to do so more with conviction
10:44
in the very early stages of those price
10:47
Discovery waves and if we talk about
10:50
diminishing returns across Cycles then
10:53
we need to talk about diminishing
10:54
returns across price Discovery uptrends
10:57
so this is that price discovery uptrend
11:00
in the very first 8 weeks of price
11:02
Discovery and over here we had this for
11:05
4 weeks so this was the first price
11:08
Discovery uptrend and notice how that
11:10
also diminishes across time in 2017 and
11:15
then you'll notice here as well in
11:18
2021 where we also diminish before we
11:21
finally pull back but not that much
11:23
which is quite interesting that
11:24
diminishing rate of return Isn't that
11:27
interesting and I'm or at least too big
11:30
which I'm trying to say and so if we do
11:34
something like this then of course we
11:37
need to factor that diminishing rate of
11:40
return but it does give us an idea that
11:44
well maybe we halfway through this price
11:46
Discovery wave
11:49
potentially with a little bit more so
11:51
maybe 40% more in this price Discovery
11:54
wave this very first one before we then
11:56
see that first major price Discovery
11:58
correction in the future and of course
12:02
it's bound to happen and really don't
12:06
ignore it because they can be that's a
12:09
high probability
12:12
opportunity that really lays ahead and
12:16
2013 showed us that this can be quite a
12:18
significant opportunity but this is
12:22
25% for example here that's also some 30
12:26
25% and this last 2 to 3 weeks here it
12:29
lasted a little bit longer than that but
12:32
it's enough to convince people that the
12:34
bull market is over and that the bare
12:36
Market is beginning and so people are
12:39
going to think that we're already here
12:41
and going to experience a year-long bare
12:44
Market whereas we still have quite a bit
12:47
of upside left to enjoy so price
12:51
Discovery wave one is right
12:53
underway it's it's already in play it's
12:56
two weeks in we saw a 4-we price
13:00
Discovery wave here we saw an 8we price
13:02
Discovery wave here we saw a 6 weeks
13:06
price Discovery wave right over here and
13:08
then we saw a several week price
13:11
Discovery correction
13:14
afterwards multi-week price Discovery
13:16
correction afterwards and then
13:18
multi-week price Discovery correction
13:20
afterwards as well but then what follows
13:22
is that next price Discovery wave in
13:25
2020 here again but just notice how we
13:29
transition into another price Discovery
13:31
correction and even in 2013 you can see
13:35
that once we finally transition out from
13:37
in fact if you think about this as the
13:39
price Discovery wave wave two then you
13:42
see this is a 25% reaccumulation phase
13:45
and pullback opportunity so that's price
13:47
Discovery correction number two in 2013
13:49
and then we embark on that last price
13:52
Discovery wave towards the upside in
13:54
2013 and here is the same for 2017 maybe
13:58
a small dip in the meantime and of
14:00
course this is that final price
14:03
Discovery wave in
14:04
2021 so essentially the the real
14:07
takeaways here are price Discovery wave
14:10
uptrend number one is in progress still
14:12
it's only week two so still a few weeks
14:14
left we have 4 to8 weeks generally in
14:18
this price Discovery wave then we could
14:20
suffer a major price Discovery
14:22
correction of approximately 25% 30%
14:26
maybe 20% that's going to last 2 to 3
14:29
weeks then we're going to see that
14:31
second price Discovery uptrend wave
14:34
before
14:35
we have that price Discovery correction
14:38
that second one which could also be once
14:40
again a 30% pullback and then the final
14:43
price Discovery wave into new alltime
14:45
highs and that's probably that's
14:46
probably going to be it that's going to
14:47
be the new alltime highs the final
14:50
alltime highs and that's going to be it
14:51
for that sort of price appreciation so I
14:55
talk
14:56
about whether we're going to have a a
14:59
shorter parabolic upside phase in direct
15:02
capital newsletter check it out find out
15:05
more click in the link in the
15:06
description down below to read more
15:08
about it I talk about the price
15:10
Discovery waves in a lot of detail in
15:13
the re Capital newsletter check out the
15:15
link in the description find out more
15:16
read more about it there are so many
15:20
opportunities still left in the market
15:22
when it comes to bitcoin's price action
15:24
with these potential price Discovery
15:26
Corrections still ahead in the future
15:28
but just note that altcoins haven't yet
15:31
even begun their macro uptrends they're
15:34
only just beginning their uptrends so
15:37
still so much more to enjoy when it
15:39
comes to altcoins and still so much left
15:41
ahead for Bitcoin but not too much left
15:44
in this video that's about it for
15:47
today's video thanks so much subscribe
15:48
to the channel for more videos like this
15:50
in the future like this video if you
15:51
enjoy content like this going forward
15:52
I'm re capital and I'll speak to you in
15:54
the next one speak to you soon