The arrival of Republican Donald Trump to the White House can bring about significant changes in US relations with the world. Faced with recent declarations and promises of Trump's campaign, BBC Brazil lists eight things that could potentially change after Trump took office and assumed US command.
1. Changes in the world's largest military alliance
President-elect has long criticized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the world's largest military alliance, which is headed by the United States and seen as one of the pillars of US foreign policy for more than 60 years.
Trump has already stated that NATO is obsolete and has described its members as ungrateful allies who have benefited from US generosity. A few days before the inauguration ceremony, scheduled for Friday (20), he reiterated that "many" of the 28 block members are not paying due contributions which, according to Trump, is "very unfair" to Americans.
The latest criticism came with the deployment of 3,000 US troops to Poland as part of President Barack Obama's plan to generate peace of mind for European allies concerned about a possible Russian attack.
In a sense, Trump's rhetoric repeats a concern that has already been expressed, since most NATO members are not meeting the established target for each member of the bloc to spend at least 2% of their respective Internal Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the area of defense. Washington, on the other hand, is the one who spends the most on the world with the industry.
Trump has already stated that NATO is "very important" to him, but his statements and criticisms have removed the climate of tranquility among European partners. Germany's foreign minister said the comments of the US president-elect are a matter of concern in the alliance.
2. Closer US relations with Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Donald Trump and admiration seems to be mutual.
During the election campaign, the United States ranked Putin as a strong leader with whom he would like to have a good relationship.
That was, however, before US intelligence came to the conclusion that Russia was responsible for hacking Democratic Party emails during the election campaign. Trump only acknowledged that the Russians were behind the cyber attacks a few days ago.
The recent spreading of a report by a former British spy on relations between Trump and Russia, whose veracity was not confirmed by the US intelligence services, also created a new and thorny problem for the president-elect. The document, which is being investigated by the FBI, brings information that the Russians collected compromising material on Trump.
Trump dismissed the allegations and said the reports were "false news", suggesting that the document was intentionally leaked by intelligence agents. Russia also denied the allegations.
The president-elect has already stated that he begins the administration relying on Putin (and German Chancellor Angela Merkel), but warned that this vote of confidence "may not last long."
He also said he would uphold US sanctions against Russia "at least for a while." However, during an interview, he suggested that international sanctions could be extinguished if "good agreements" were signed with Russia, including the reduction of nuclear weapons.
Relations between the US and Russia became much more tense during the Obama administration, especially because of differences over Ukraine, Syria and accusations of cyber attacks. But the dynamics of this bilateral relationship tend to change significantly during the Trump administration.
3. The end of free trade as we know it
Donald Trump's trade policies may mean the biggest change in how the US has been doing business for decades with the rest of the world.
He threatened to get rid of a series of free trade agreements, including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the US, Canada and Mexico, for assigning them the loss of existing jobs. He also suggested the US withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Since winning the election, Trump has focused on threatening companies, especially automakers, saying it will charge a 35% tariff on manufactured goods in Mexico.
The goal behind its more protectionist trade policy is to create jobs, close the trade deficit and get "good deals" for the Americans.
China, especially, is in the sights of Trump, but not just for commercial reasons.
4. The one-China policy threatened
Trump's call to Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in early December broke a four-decade protocol established between the US and China.
For Beijing, Taiwan is a province of China. To deny Taiwan the rights of an independent state is one of China's foreign policy priorities, something the US has been recognizing with its political vision of "a single China."
Recently, the president-elect said that everything is subject to negotiation, including China only. China responded by saying that this is a principle that does not negotiate.
This conflicting position raises serious questions about the trajectory of the relationship between the two largest economies in the world.
But Trump has demonstrated pragmatism on a number of issues related to China. She portrayed herself, for example, after one of her comments made in the campaign, in which she said she would label China as a currency manipulator. Now he states that he will "talk to them first."
5. Redefining relations with Latin America
The Trump government may provoke the biggest change in decades of relations between Washington and Latin America.
If executed, promises to build a wall along the border with Mexico and force Mexicans to pay for it, to promote a mass deportation of Hispanic immigrants living in the US, and to increase trade protectionism can completely change the Americas.
The uncertainty that the next White House occupant represents for the region since its November election victory has been reflected in the volatility of the Mexican peso, which has hit record levels against the dollar.
The threats of deportation have also caused concern among Brazilians in an irregular situation in the United States.
There are still unknowns about what Trump intends to do in relation to the normalization of US relations with Cuba, taken up by President Barack Obama, or how Washington will tackle drug policy in the region.
It remains to be seen how Latin American governments will react to Trump's actions and announcements, although several analysts anticipate that, at least initially, distrust will prevail over the atmosphere of cooperation already established in the region.
6. Review of nuclear agreement with Iran
For President Obama, the agreement that suspended sanctions against Iran in exchange for guarantees of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons was a "historical understanding."
But for Donald Trump, who echoes concerns of Republicans, the deal was "the worst deal I've ever seen being negotiated."
He stated during the campaign that dismantling it will be his "number one priority," but now says he does not want to specify what he's going to do.
"Who shows you your cards before you play?" He said in an interview with Britain's The Times when asked about the subject.
The revision of the agreement would have a huge impact on the Middle East. Iran is a key player in the Syrian conflict and a historical rival of Saudi Arabia and Israel, for example.
And Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has already asked Trump to keep the nuclear deal. He suggested that the US should respect the agreement, backed by several world powers.
The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was more direct. "If they break the deal, we'll burn it," the Associated Press reported.
7. Warming the climate in the Far East
Before even taking office, the Donald Trump government already raised important security issues in Asia.
Future Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has spoken of blocking China's access to the artificial islands being built by the Chinese in a disputed sea area with Japan in the South China Sea. Tillerson's statements triggered warnings for potential "military conflicts," according to a state newspaper.
Japan and South Korea were identified by Trump as over-reliant countries in the United States. The president-elect said that these two countries would benefit if they had their own nuclear arsenals.
North Korea is developing its own nuclear weapons, and Trump will have to confront those ambitions, something his predecessors have not been able to prevent. It is unclear what Trump can and will do, but he set out to negotiate directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
But in response to a recent announcement by Kim that North Korea was about to test long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, Trump said on Twitter that it simply "will not happen."
Trump may even have a strategy in mind, not yet revealed. But the most unpredictable US president ever elected to negotiate with the most unpredictable country in the world makes the US-North Korea relationship a potential hot spot in the coming years.
8. Farewell to climate agreements
Donald Trump said he would "cancel" the Paris climate deal in the first 100 days of his term and intend to do everything possible to reverse President Obama's climate change regulations.
Trump has denied repeating the scientific argument that man is largely responsible for climate change on the planet, classifying such an assertion as "fiction."
However, as in many other issues, Trump expressed contradictory views on the subject. In November, for example, he told the New York Times that there was "some connection" between human activity and climate change and that he would "check" the Paris Agreement, although he had already decided to Signature of the document.
In December of 2015, during COP-21 (United Nations climate conference), countries agreed to reduce their emissions enough to keep the average global temperature rise "well below 2 ° C".
The central point of the so-called Paris Accord, which will come into effect in 2020, is the obligation for all nations, not just rich nations, to participate in combating climate change. In all, 195 member countries of the UN Climate Convention and the European Union signed the document.
Even if you want to get the name off the agreement, the US would be formally attached to the plan for four years. In addition, there are "legal and procedural blocks" that would prevent Trump from proceeding with a comprehensive review of US climate policy, according to the New York Times.
The president-elect's plans to step down from the Paris Accord, the downfall of Obama's clean energy plan and his willingness to pursue coal in the United States have been condemned by environmentalists around the world.
Fossil fuel proponents say Trump plans will prioritize the needs of American families, provide affordable energy, stimulate the economy and create more opportunities for future generations.
Very good and helpful summary. Let's hope the very best!
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