Lately in the chatroom I have seen discussions about indicators, and regular old technical analysis. So I decided to address this topic a little tonight. I apologize if I trash talk your favorite indicator. If it works for you than that's great (and kinda amazing), but its not something that I will promote in my blog.
But that about Candle Stick Patterns? That can't really be considered as indicators right?
Did you know that candles look different on every exchange? So while BTC is showing a clear Doji candle that is very bullish on a bittrex chart, its completely different candles on a Bitstamp chart.. This is because different orders are going through on each exchange. And that's not the only thing that changes a chart, candles will look different depending on the time the candle started on your chart. Also 5 min candles print different than 10 min candles. So all the exchanges are printing different versions of charts with different candles on every coin.. Come on??? Which chart are you going to reference to accurately read your Candle Stick Patterns?
Please be careful guys when looking at all that old TA info.. It really muddies the water. It serves to confuse traders, rather than help.. This is what we will discuss in this video. Here is the Youtube link incase you have trouble with Dtube :
Luc
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@quickfingersluc
First off, saying thank you and telling you just how generous with your time and knowledge and the way you have simplified the most important aspects of trading... for me is simply never going to be enough. You Sir have given each of us the tools to create the life, for me anyway, I've always dreamed of. I've spend countless hours looking and paying for courses which do little if nothing for my trading. I literally stop what I'm doing when you post a blog. Again THANK YOU.
I have been studying your method for some weeks now, and have used it for success also. I have also begun to use the line instead of candles to become more comfortable with, as I hope to move into stocks and penny stocks just like you. And use the your method for more success. I love Crypto and will continue to invest into it but the Stock market excites me also. Again Luc, thank so much.
Cheers,
Clive.
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Hey Clive, Thanks for letting me know your a fan of my work. Thats what keeps me making videos, knowing that they are helping others. I traded so long only helping a few people at a time, until now. With steemit and now the slack room, I can really reach out to a lot more, while still being able to trade all day, undisturbed. Its a win win..
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Thank you, Luc! This video is another masterpiece. I think everybody here should watch! Luc is the real deal, the perfect model for us to follow. The best teacher of trading! Luc is giving a huge contribution to the crypto market helping so many people to develop a new professional skill and everybody can do it without leaving their current jobs. I hope many others benefit from Luc's teachings and share their wins! Thank you, from the bottom of my heart, Luc!
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Hi Luc, thank you for your last video.
Just a quick question, are you using your base strategy and no indicators for the penny stock market and your day trading ? Or is your strategy only adapted to the cryptomarket ?
Thank you again for sharing your knowledge.
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Hi Luc. Just wanted to say thanks for all you've done for this community. You've made trading accessible to noobs like me.
I also was wondering the same thing as @kevber.
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the penny market is quite different. I don't use any indicators there either, but im mainly a level 2 trader in the penny market. So it doesnt really apply to this market much.
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could you make videos about the penny stock market, i think me and others would really appreciate it ;)
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No, sorry.. I know it looks exciting, but its sooo much more difficult than cryptos.. There is tons of overhead expences, like charting packages and level 2 data, and commissions.. On top of that its a tougher market with all the pros.. I really dont want to open that can of worms and lose people money, because they are not prepared for tougher market enviroment. I'd rather keep this blog about crypto..
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Hello Luc, I've watched just about all your videos and must give my appreciation for your selfless distribution of your trading strategy.
My question is: How do you decide how much money to keep in USD v. BTC v. ETH while waiting for a panic. USD obviously allows you to buy either BTC or ETH during panic, but holding BTC/ETH allows you to buy associated ALT pairs.
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There is no perfect plan for this.. I keep a little of everything, but in a major drop of BTC and ETH, I stop playing with the alts, because it gets a little hairy when you have too many trades on the go.. So I trade only the big coins when they are dropping hard, and then I resume playing the alts after everything gets back to normal.. Like right now..
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Luc, I just stumbled onto you today and could not be more happy!!! I just started watching your video series so I am starting with your 3 month ago videos. I want to watch all of them before I get started on my daily adventures into trading. I am so excited, I cannot even tell you!!!! I love the videos I have watched so far .. I see your passion in wanting to help newbies like myself. I wish I could crawl thru my computer and just pick your brain even more. I cant wait to get current with your videos and I want you to know that I am really looking forward to this .. Thank you so much for what you are doing!!! I APPRECIATE YOU .. Sunshine247
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I'm glad to hear you are excited. Your going to have a blast trading this market. It is a very easy market to trade with the right mindset. Welcome a board.
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YEA!!!!!!!! Thanks again!! SUNSHINE247
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Luc, I wondered if someone might be able to reach out to me to assist me with my first trade. I would like to do that within the next day or so. I think I need a one on one because I'm having some difficulty. I'm really excited about this learning this industry and happy to find someone who can achieve the 98+ success rate without charging an arm and a leg for their knowledge. Thank you so much...If someone could assist...I can be reached at [email protected]
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put in a small amount you don't mind losing and just try it. Really helps for your confidence to just try it for yourself. Even better if you make a profit!
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After about a decade of trading, I do not use indicators either. Price, volume and I draw trendlines. In the end all indicators feed off of the price action (time&sales)
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I Luc. Been struggling to join the chatroom for a while now, please could I get a link? Thanks so much, Alex.
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I have a post with a link in my blog.. Just scroll down my blog a few entries.. I dont have a newer link than that.
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Hey Luc! Just wanted to thank you for your wisdom & kindness
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I really appreciate this topic being produced. People sometimes hop down my throat when I advise newer traders to stay away from putting tea leaves on their charts to predict price. But I understand, I used to be in the same position years ago, I spent countless amounts of time down that rabbit hole.
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Great video Luc and funny too, wish the slack took this onboard more often. PS, you're a legend!
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Hi Luc,
Quick question for you! On every video you show like your strategy perfectly works on down trends. And it really does! But what about up trends? I mean of course we can do the same thing (watching when the bases get cracked etc, I really nailed your method). But generally the next base is higher than the previous one on the up trend. And is there no way we can trade on this?
I just noticed one order you showed us in "Trade like a professional, with no emotions + building small accounts" video which is away from your method but it worked. And you did this because you "used to see such patterns". Can you show us some of these patterns or where we can learn them (may be you suggest some sources)?
I know you are really busy so even your short answer will be appreciated. Thanks beforehand!
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Yeah, those trades you are referring to are nibbles and day trades. Although the arrows show up on all charts because they are a record of my trades, I was actually playing off a 5 minute chart for quick daytrades.. Like you said, daytrades are not the same as position trades, and I really don't want to start confusing everyone, by explaining daytrading on the big coins.. We gotta keep position trading simple, so no one gets hurt looking at other timeframes..
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This order I meant http://joxi.ru/nAyMyLltXQoV5A
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Isn't sharing the baseline method essentially creating a mini army of traders that would reinforce the baseline principle, also eventually creating a self fulfilling prophecy?
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Most people, even after watching all Luc's videos, don't trade or do it every now and again. Some are afraid. Others still don't understand fully and make mistakes. Some watched the videos, tried and quit. Some even forgot about trading. Even if the group had 50k, it wouldn't make much difference. See how many people upvote and how many comment. For example, I have a friend that uses indicators, etc. watches Luc's videos but stopped doing trades. He clearly didn't understand 100% the techniques or is too arrogant to follow the simpler approach taught by Luc here. Numbers seen here can impress at first sight but don't correspond to reality.
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The crowd and whales already reinforce it.
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Exactly, the money is sooo big, that a few thousand of us guys wont influence it.. most following me have small accounts anyways.
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Luc, I hear what mrqtraining is saying and I don't want to be one of those people. I really want to learn this. However, I do need major assistance at least at the start. If you can or recommend someone to me I would greatly appreciate it. My email is [email protected]. That you so much. I've really enjoyed the videos I have viewed my first day, today and am ecstatic, blessed to have found you on the vast internet. [email protected]
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Watching all Lucs videos multiple times is a great start, then get in the slack group theres a ton of help there. Plus in the slack group there are threads of people posting their trades both successful and unsuccessful with great conversations, thats another great source for learning the method. Doing all that should put you in a pretty good position to start trading, the method isnt rocket science, once you understand it one of your primary weapons is patience.
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Thanks for the video Luc - agree with a lot of it although weekly macd
still looks useful on a long term basis though not for swing trading over
days/weeks. I liked the walk through of the recent base cracking at 4000,
after btc fell from 5000, followed by the panic down to 3000 - a good demo
of the strategy. My question is how strong should you expect the rebound
after the panic? I bought at 3200 but thought the chart was struggling to
make progress after a couple of days - bouncing around at 3600 - 3700
so sold but its now 4300. Does your strategy expect a strong rebound
usually back to the cracked base of 4000 - and this is a good place to sell?
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The panic results in a bounce.. thats the method, I am buying panics because that is unreasonable prices. Anywhere you sell in profit is good. There is no way to know how far a rebound will go, but a good rule of thumb is it usually atleast returns to the base crack that caused the panic. However, it can easily keep going past that also. We cannot predict the future, all we can do is buy unreasonable prices and sell more reasonable ones. If you do that, your account will only grow. That is the secret to turning your account into a small fortune, only buy in those safe circles, and you will win win win..
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Ok so with luck it will return to the base crack and maybe further but as you say there are no guarantee's only that we should be holding a coin at 'cheap' price.
Is the panic selling after a base crack the main strategy or are you also looking for the breakout's from a base. For instance when BTC first got near to 3000 it was 'channeling' in a narrow range for several days below 3000 before finally breaking out and moving forward. This looks a bit like an inverse of a base crack but in the opposite direction - is this a strategy you are also following - so buying when it pops above what looks like a base?
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no.. I do not buy break out ever.. My trades have very very high odds and I dont use stop losses, so break out trading is for others, who dont mind being wrong a lot..
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I've had a quick look back over the year - I think there are around 6 BTC panic's since the start of 2017 - so would you say there have been 6 opportunities to use your strategy?
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There has been many opportunities, I trade all the major coins with size and all the alts with small positions.. Looking at BTC is the tip of the iceberg
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Hi, first of all I would like to thank you for your trading lessons, they are really enlightening and I like your alternative approach. I have learned to look differently on many trading aspects. But there is one thing I doubt. Last panic sells have in my opinion much more to do with Chinese exchanges closure, than with whales manipulation. It is a bit to much of conspiracy theory in your view. On one hand you say that one trader can't move the market , on the other you say that big guys or guy cause panic sells to make smaller players sell cheap. I think that without any really bad news even the big guys can not cause a 40% drop of Bitcoin in 2 weeks. I prefer to believe that when there are bad news it is the sentiment what drives the market. Fear and greed. Once you learn to play opposite than your emotions tell you to do, you can call yourself a proffesional. Once again thanks for your work.
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Consider this.. If you were one of these "whales" and really bad news came out for the coin you have been supporting at lets say 4,000.. After you remove your buy orders supporting that price, are you going to stop investing in that coin, or are you going to now support it lower? And after all the retail investors panic out of there coins and the price drops down to 3,000 where you have moved your buy orders, what will happen? Consider too that there are not only people panic selling all the way to 3,000 but there is also novice traders who are shorting the market all the way down.. Once some large players starts to support the price a domino effect happens.. The faster retail players start to buy along side the big money, and some of the shorters buy also (covering there shorts) but you gotta be fast because within a few minutes this wave of buying has shot up the price, and now everyone is buying and shorts are getting squeezed, and forced to cover fast.. it is the nature of the market to over extend a move and then panic to fix the overextention.. however it still comes down to big money, removing there 4,000 bids and replacing them with 3,000 bids.. They control the move in that they are picking the areas of support.
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I agree, but I just wonder why not 2500 or 2000? They are wales so they could. They would earn even more. My point is that these support levels arent picked arbitrary, there is probably something behind it, and if I knew what, then I could use this knowledge.
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Because 3000 is a psychological barrier for all traders, people would start buying there even without big money.
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Luc, I wondered if someone might be able to reach out to me to assist me with my first trade. I would like to do that within the next day or so. I think I need a one on one because I'm having some difficulty. I'm really excited about this learning this industry and happy to find someone who can achieve the 98+ success rate without charging an arm and a leg for their knowledge. Thank you so much...If someone could assist...I can be reached at [email protected]
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Hi Luc,
Thanks for another great video. I posted a message on Slack about which base should I consider KRKN: ETH/USD ( https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/59c991d0333ee/ ). In my analysis, I kept it simple (easy for me to do) and only discussed safe circles and where a crack may form. However, one slack member, @bennysuavo, discussed which base he would choose based upon the performance ratio between ETH/BTC. In other words, choose base #2 for ETH/USD if ETH is falling greater than BTC, otherwise 1. Should a newbie investor consider these factors too or just focus on choosing the proper base and wait for a panic selloff (ie crack)? I figure my question kind of relates to your concern about using technical analysis indicators and getting too much into the details.
Thanks
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I really like the way you are helping us to learn the trades . According to your prediction , Bitcoin fell to 3000$ , Do you think I should buy some size and hold it for some months , Do you think it will surpass 5000$ in a few months ? Thank You and a lot of love :) ( If someone interested member of our community wants to help me out in this question , then please go ahead :) )
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I dont predict future events, I am a reaction trader. I let the chart dictate when I should buy. It is impossible to know what 100,000 people are going to do in the next few months, or what news is about to break.
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"According to your prediction , Bitcoin fell to 3000$" - @therabbitsfoot Let's dispel this myth, @quickfingersluc did not predict the price of Bitcoin. There is a night and day difference between probability and prediction. Luc understands the probabilities, he does not make predictions.
Luc read the chart correctly, he noticed that there was a higher probability of a decline in the market. We know that the market tends to retrace to past lines of support and resistance, therefore we can expect a revisit of key points on the chart in high probability. Since we skyrocketed so quickly through the 3K-4K price range, there was no historical bases that could be tested. This means the market is likely to dip down as the market discovers where the lines of support and resistance should exist.
None of this was a prediction, it was something that anyone who spent the time to read the chart could deduce might occur in the future. When? Nobody knew. Luc was just preparing for that possibility and nothing more. He doesn't have a crystal ball, he just reads charts - then prepares to REACT for the outcomes.
I hope this clears things up!
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I don't think Luc likes to predict things.
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wow, Luc, this video was even better than all the other videos you have been posting. Thank you so much for your insight!
I have one question, however. I read the ZEC/EUR chart on Kraken a while ago and realized that everytime the RSI climbed over some value for a one hour stick (I don't remember exactly, unfortunately), it always retraced by at least 8 Euros or something similar, so about 4% or similar at that time. I know this is not too much, but I liked my odds and sold my coins to buy back in a little lower. It worked our perfectly. Can't stuff like that be used efficiently? I mean, I don't care about some random indicator showing me random stuff, but if histroy proves that everytime the indicator showed a certain thing, something else happened, I guess using that indicator to my advantage is exactly what you are telling us in reading the charts, isn't it?
And with the number of crappy indicators available, won't certain indicators be more reliable on some charts and show the same kind of regularities the chart itself shows? In particular if used in a way similar to the one described above?
Thanks for your help :)
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Any reoccuring pattern that you can find on a chart gives you an advantage.. But do you really need an over bought signal from an RSI to tell you where on the chart it dipped? I would think you probably could trade that same chart without the indicator, quite effectively..
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That makes perfect sense. Thank you!
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Hi Luc. If you're running out of things to talk about, something I'd love to hear about would be the things that maybe seem obvious to you but aren't as obvious to new traders. For example, when NEO cracked what seemed like a solid base but never returned and you explained in a blog comment somewhere that it had "worn out" that base so no one was surprised that it cracked; or how you spoke about the fact that coins will often fix their charts if they haven't retested a previous break out price point. More things like that would be invaluable to help us not get blind sided by things that would be super obvious to you.
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To fix my sore throat and cough I put 1 tbs of colloidal silver in a nebulizer and inhale 4 times a day. And no side affects.
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thanks for the tip.. I usually just tray not to cough and it clears up in a day or two.. So im basically using my willpower to not irritate my throat further.. If you stop scratching a sore, it will heal.
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I would like to thank you luc for your time you invest in people you don't know and that you share you knowledge with us.
You are the first person to show how trading is working, without trying to sell us some so called "How to make 1million in 2 days" programs.
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Trading has always come very easy to me.. Its really common sense math.. But I'm happy to help everyone see it my way, because I know that new traders struggle a lot. And no worries, I will never ask for anything from anyone. Actually, I have to fight the urge to send some of my followers some coins to get them started. I know if I do that, it will just be endless people asking me to give them money. But every so often, there is someone who really wants to get started, but cannot afford to trade yet, and I wish I could just say: "heres $500, let's see how fast you can double it"
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Thanks Luc for debunking the technical analysis myth.
I feel that there is not enough people saying this out loud. This is a fallacy that has absolutely no scientific basis whatsoever. I mean which other industry is trying to predict the future by drawing shapes on charts past data ? If I was doing this in my job I would get fired. The best it can do is give you a different visual representation of what has been happening, but it can in no way predict the future.
Yet so many traders believe in this, there are hundreds of books, people claiming to have been trading with this for years and years, hours long videos on youtube with serious people explaining you all the subtleties of their indicators and setups, trying to sound like math teachers, thousands of people on twitter or trading view posting their charts and boasting about their profits... For the beginner it does sound kind of legit.
And when you try arguing with them, at some point they will say that even if it's bullshit, so many people use it that it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, which is utter BS as it would imply a vast majority of people are looking at the exact same signals and drawing the exact same conclusions. There are so many ways to look a the data, so many timeframes, markets, that this hypothesis is ridiculous.
I think lot of traders honestly think it is working, and some might have found a system that is somehow working for them, which is fine. But I do also think some people use it in a disingenuous way to trick people into buying books, seminars and subscriptions to paid chatrooms. I think it is important that new traders keep this in mind before buying into anything.
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Yeah, I posted a comment on The Chart Guys youtube channel the other day, and called him out for saying "that you should just gets use to taking losses because they happen so often, and eventually the losses won't bother you anymore" .. wow that is some way to teach people.. get use to taking losses..
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Genius! Thanks for sharing your knowledge and experience.
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