Unlike in the past, which only shared the year-on-year growth rate of GDP, the table produced by Nansheng this time "also provides you with the chain or chain annualized growth rate of each country's economy in the first quarter". The reason for this change is that the epidemic has caused a huge alienation of the economic development of various countries.
It is often seen that the growth rate of the chain and the annualized growth rate is declining, but the year-on-year increase has been achieved to a large extent - the two are no longer synchronized, which requires us to observe and compare the economic development trends of various countries. We need to adopt a broader perspective, to avoid being confused by a single data.
The economic growth rate of some countries in the first quarter needs to be observed in broader data
For example, in the United States, the economy in the first quarter of this year fell by 1.5% year-on-year, which seems to confirm what some media say "the U.S. economy is about to enter or is entering a recession." But if we look at the year-on-year growth rate, the US economy still achieved a relatively large growth rate of 4.2% in the first quarter.
The economic scale of the United States also expanded to US$5.98 trillion in the first quarter, setting a "new record for the first quarter of the calendar year" and continuing to rank first among countries in the world. Including the increase in the price of goods and services, the nominal growth rate of the US economy has reached double digits.
The same is true for the first quarter of 2022 in Japan! It decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, but if viewed from a year-on-year perspective, it has achieved a substantial increase of 0.4%—the completed economic scale is about 1.161 trillion US dollars, continuing to rank third in the world.
And France! From a sequential perspective, the growth rate in the first quarter of this year was zero, and it was close to a recession. However, if compared with the same period last year, after excluding price changes, a large proportion of 5.3% has been achieved, and the GDP has reached 0.719 trillion US dollars, ranking seventh in the world.
From a quarter-on-quarter point of view, the UK economy in the first quarter did not decline - it achieved an increase of 0.8, which does not seem to be very prominent. However, the year-on-year growth rate after seasonal adjustment was as high as 8.7%, leading to the top ten, and the GDP reached 0.827 trillion US dollars, ranking fifth.
In short, the global economy is becoming more complex and volatile, and the actual year-on-year growth rate of the economy seems to be unable to fully reflect the economic development trend of various countries. Coupled with the interference of various factors such as exchange rates, prices, and the speed of industrial chain migration, the economic scale of various countries has fluctuated greatly, which is worthy of attention.
India's economic growth rate in the first quarter was only 4.1%, which was lower than Nansheng's expectations. The completed nominal GDP was "about 0.797 trillion US dollars in terms of the cost of production factors", which still ranked sixth in the world; Italy was 0.516 trillion US dollars. , ranking eighth in the world.