Interesting piece on consumer economic sentiment.

in economic •  9 months ago 

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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/inflation-food-prices-democrat-biden/676901

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This survey commissioned by the Atlantic found people were most focused on grocery prices. This tracks with my experience- whenever I mention CPI cooling, people are quick to mention grocery prices. I guess it makes sense- they are prices we see weekly and have some tangible conception of.

Whole piece is worth reading.

Minor quibbles I have with the article:

  1. the models on consumer sentiment go back to the high inflation of the 1970s/1980s, and the disconnect began in 2020 before inflation. So inflation isn't the whole story with the disconnect on consumer sentiment.

  2. CPI and PCE do include shelter/housing costs via rent and imputed rent for homeowners even if housing prices aren't included. But the author makes a good point that increases in home prices mean increases in home equity and most Americans own their own homes, so that's a net benefit for most Americans.

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