One thing i do not think you are accounting for in your outlook is Iran. What will happen when the EU does not give better terms prior to Iran breaking the agreement by increasing their uranium enrichment levels? After it is apparent the EU will not concede anymore in negotiations and Iran has broken the deal will Iran start publicly negotiating with the USA? What will happen to the Oil Sanctions as a deal is negotiated and progressed with the USA? What would 3MMbbl/d oil hitting the market do to the price of oil? If you think Iran is not already in the works answer this. Did Kim Jung-un look anxious or nervous when he met Trump at the DMZ or in Hanoi?

As Trump said "Lower oil prices are tax cuts for the WORLD".

What does lower energy costs do for stocks, bonds, and inflation?

Yes, Oil will rise after OPEC+ announces production cuts this month in Geneva.

All else considered I appreciate your insight into markets and your outlook.Thank you for sharing!