Here We Go Again: A New Bubble

in economics •  8 years ago 

It appears that the housing bubble that almost bankrupted the world economy in 2008 wasn't enough. In a new article that appeared in today's blog on ZeroHedge, Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan has observed a huge increase of subprime loans in the auto industry. Predictably, the "experts" have decried such a thing as preposterous, just like they did with the subprime housing market. The rationale, according to one such expert, Mike Jackson CEO of Auto Nation, says that because auto loans tend to be less than mortgage loans, they won't go into default. "People pay their car loans," said Jackson. Where have I heard this before?

The fact is, people pay their mortgages, when they have the money. Similarly, people pay their car loans, student loans, credit cards, etc., when they have the money. What caused the housing bubble to burst, simply put, was a downturn in employment (an income-based inability to pay) coupled with risky loans. That is, virtually the only necessary requirement for a mortgage loan, was a pulse.

It's unlikely that if a supposed auto loan bubble was to burst it would have the same impact as the housing bubble. But, it wouldn't be good news for an already shaky auto manufacturing sector. What will happen remains to be seen. There is already a significant rise in auto loan defaults, with higher rates predicted. Another thing to keep in mind is that mortgage loans are securitized...auto loans are not.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-09/car-loans-versus-subprime-mortgages-%E2%80%93-are-there-any-parallels

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It will get sticky, indeed.

New Zealand has the biggest housing bubble in the world right now - basically about half the houses cost over a million $.

Cars on the other hand are dirt cheap - $5000 will buy something pretty good. Why an earth do Americans take out loans on cars?

Americans take out loans on food! They buy food on credit...our economy is almost entirely based on debt. It's our biggest export!!!

I read that and it's very interesting post!!
Great job my friend again :)

Thank you so much...I don't predict it will break the economy like the last bubble. But, it won't be good!

Let us not forget who mandated those risky loans: Bill Clinton and other Democrats.

  ·  8 years ago (edited)

Clinton completely deregulated the Wall St banks. He's the one that passed the law that made regular banks and investment banks the same under the law (both regulated by the same banking code). So you hit the nail right on the head! Also, it was under him that the big lawsuit against Fleet Bank (the racial discrimination suit) made the banks loan money to minorities whether they qualified or not. It was Barney Frank's boyfriend that was running Fannie Mae at the time so they pushed for it!

He is also the one who forced banks (extortion, really, which Holder later practiced under obozo) to make demonstrably bad loans to minority applicants. The banks were given no choice but to comply.

When my bank starts offering me loans to finance a holiday, I know another bubble has arrived.

Great! We don't have nearly enough. It seems to me to all be hinged on the instant gratification principle. The loan officers, investment brokers, et.al. are all chasing quick money. The US economy is based almost entirely on debt! That can't go on for long, our money is so devalued, it's almost worthless as it is.

The other thing of note, is the bank offers loans despite my having substantial sums on deposit. Why do they think I would want to borrow money at 16%, when I have money on deposit at 0.25%. Given inflation my deposit is effectively on a negative rate. So much for good investment advice from a bank.

If you really think about it...Banks are in business to make money, any advice they give you will benefit them not you!

Keep working, stop paying, and decentralize everything.