DID OUR "WORLD LEADERS" JUST PUSH GLOBAL RECESSION AWAY from our doorsteps?steemCreated with Sketch.

in economy •  5 years ago  (edited)

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INTRODUCTION

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A while ago I opened my eyes wildly in shock reading today’s news. It seems that the US government will enjoy their debt ceiling being raised (link at the end of this post). Which would allow them to increase their spending for next 2 years. Isn’t it amazing (I’m being sarcastic here)?

Another stimulation plan, more spending’s, more debts created and in effect – more newly created and printed money. If I remember well, just this year alone, China decided to stimulate their own economy by pumping it with a record high amount of new easy money. How did they manage to do that? Obviously by creating more debt, that will make it harder for those paying debts in the future but right now we will all be enjoying more of that wealth.

WHAT’S NEXT?

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How will it all end?

I think we all know.

It can only end very badly.

After all (based on my understanding) pumping more printed money into economies will mostly allow stock market to grow even higher, since a large chunk of this wealth will end up as investments on Wall Street.

So perhaps with all those new easy money entering markets and economies, we will experience another 2-3 years of prosperity and growth? That’s how it does look like to me. So China is printing money like there is no tomorrow. US and FED will do the same. I wonder what will other central banks do.

My current knowledge about economy (still quite limited) is telling me, that all we are doing is delaying another recession and we’re doing it simply by creating more debts, which allows to print new money. These money enters and boost current economy. The way I see it is that we’re using wealth from “the future” (our future time, energy, effort etc) within current days. We’re basically sucking all of our resources from the future and using them today.

And that’s what is exactly happening right now. After all, those debts will have to be paid back. With interests rates. Isn’t that just terrific?

DO I UNDERSTAND IT RIGHT? SHARE YOUR VIEW

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My important question is:

Do you, dear readers, believe that this kind of solutions (printing more money, creating more debts) will be enough?

Can it really allow goverments to avoid global economic recession by another few years? Or perhaps it’s a little bit too late or simply not enough?

I’m far from being an expert when it comes to economy and every day I’m trying to put some pieces of the puzzle together. In hopes that I will slowly start understanding some relations and that I will eventually see the bigger picture.

Am I wrong or am I right by saying, that all those extra spendings will help current administrations to avoid recession within a short-term timeline. It does seem obvious to me, that our governments’ learned that by creating more debts (which allows to print more money, since each $$$ need to be connected to some debt) is the easiest way of keeping a stable economy growth.

However the question is: how long can we all carry on this way. How long before countries, goverments, societies, companies, house owners and just regular people around the world will not be capable of increasing their debts and large chunk of their profits will be simply used to pay growing interest rates. What will happen then?

After all in every economy it's all about money flow. And once access to new cheap money will finish (or be greatly reduced) and debts pile up – then money flow will slow down bringing one day our entire world to its knees.

Yours,
Piotr
(I read and reply to all comments)

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Link to article "House approves two-year deal to raise debt ceiling and increase government spending":
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-07-25/house-approves-two-year-deal-to-raise-debt-ceiling-set-government-spending

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The printing press won't stop until "the market" decides that the debt burden is too high. When that time comes (months or years) all wealth in the stocks/bonds/housing market will be destroyed.
After a short deflationary period, we will see hyperinflation like in Venezuela, but it will all happen within a few weeks. Not enough time to get your wealth in Gold/Silver/BTC.
That will be called the great global reset and the elites will use the chaos to push for one world currency and another 50 years of money printing (new debt cycle).
States will default, banks will go bankrupt and believe me it will be nearly as ugly as a war in your country would be.
People will lose their pensions, their homes... it will be one big mess worldwide, but especially in developed countries, because they are not used to living a low life standard.

Late thank you for this excellent comment @ew-and-patterns

Yours, Piotr

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Hello dear @crypto.piotr.

After all in every economy it's all about money flow. And once access to new cheap money will finish (or be greatly reduced) and debts pile up - then money flow will slow down bringing one day our entire world to its knees.

It is a very realistic opinion, I think that is what has happened with the populist governments of some Latin American countries (including Venezuela), it seems that the most important thing for them is to create a scenario where everything seems to be fine and in the future we will see how it is fixed , and who fixes it. It's living life today and we'll see what happens in the future.

Thanks for sharing friend!

Something to think about; what are they printing? What are they not printing? The debt can never be repaid because they are printing principal, but they aren't printing the interest. Zero sum game? There is more debt than money in many cases, and every time they print a Euro, Dollar or what have you, the one in your wallet is worth just that little bit less and the price of a Liter of Milk magically goes up.

We saw this before in 1920's Germany, and you couldn't put enough money in a wheelbarrow to buy another Wheelbarrow. This has also been repeated in other countries throughout history, yet somehow few seem to catch on and keep using this easy money from nothing. I have a few million Intis from Banco Central de Peru in 1990. They are worth less than the paper it's printed on.

Sobering thought I hope. Greetings.

Dear @onnovocks

I'm glad to see that you're still around. I remember you mentioned that you've been targeted and flagged a lot. Did this problem go away?

Yours
Piotr

Unfortunately the answer is no.

we’re using wealth from “the future” (our future time, energy, effort etc) within current days. We’re basically sucking all of our resources from the future and using them today.

Interesting way of looking at it. Like any debt, we're using future wealth now, assuming we'll have it later. Like taking out a student loan, with the assurance that the completed "education" will be so valuable in the future, money will be no problem, even at outrageous interest rates.

It's also theft through inflation - our wealth is being plundered by less buying dollar power. We need to teach our children these concepts, that's why I read the "Tuttle Twin" books to my children - so perhaps the next generation will know better. 40% off right now with coupon code FORTY


I am an affiliate and receive compensation from your purchase.

Dear @ironshield

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Yours
Piotr

I think that very bad and will create another bubble that will blow in 5 years

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Well, the EU is going to explode. The currency union aspect of it was never a good idea in the first place. It's a matter of when not if that happens.

By contrast, in the US I think it is a matter of if not when we will ever see a return to historic "normal" interest rates (about 5%). The Modern Keynesians are really about to break through into the mainstream. And they maybe onto something about the old monetary indicators being inappropriate for the modern economy. After all, if we're looking for price inflation to be the tail that wags the dog, there are a lot of good reasons that have cropped up in the 21st century for that to have stopped being a reliable indicator, among them globalization and the digital sharing economy.

In China, it's a race between rising debt and sovereign investments. There's a chance that all the infrastructure building that the Chinese have engaged in will grab them a share of that seignorage that allows the US to print money so freely without consequence. For now, China is relying on its planned economy to hold things together and they are hoping that will hold until everything that is the One Belt One Road matures and can contribute significantly to their economy. That's a big bet. But they probably have the best leadership out of the 3 regions mentioned here.

That's my view @crypto.piotr, thanks for asking!

Dear @shanghaipreneur

Thank you for your great comment.

The currency union aspect of it was never a good idea in the first place. It's a matter of when not if that happens.

Is that really how do you see it? I wonder how US in the past managed to unite all states and introduce USD to all of them. I wonder why same couldn't happen in europe.

ps.
Recently I've bumped into this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

It does shows debts of all major countries and I noticed that with few exceptions everywhere debt is increasing. However 4 countries (including Poland and Germany) seem to have their debt going down.

And I was wondering how could that be possible? Also I realized that Poland has very good ratio between debt to GDP (around 50%), which is great comparing to countries like France (107%) or Italy (147%). Not to mention JApan (261%).

I found it so confusing. It would suggest that Poland have more stable economy than majority countries out there. Looking at those numbers could even suggest that Japan is serious financial trouble.

Mind sharing your thoughts?

Yours
Piotr

What I don't think people even slightly understand is how devastating this increasing debt will be in the future. Right now governments around the world are struggling to pay for their massive debt loads with the lowest interest rates in modern history.

When rates normalize the cost of servicing these debts will skyrocket.

Short term added spending may keep the economy moving along, but long term this kicking of the can (yet again) is devastating.

You're very right @thedarkhorse

Generally people do not understand much about idea of printing money and debt based economy. I can only hope that we won't witness all of it crushing down within our lifetimes.

ps. I've heard that in Switzerland they already introduced negative interest rates. That must be insane.

Yours
Piotr

Honestly I don't see how we wouldn't see the house of cards crash down. There are very few governments that are in a position to handle the debt loads they have amassed. I'd rather it happen sooner then later and give my children a chance at a future that isn't strapped with what has to happen. It shouldn't be their burden...heck it shouldn't be mine, but I'd rather bear it then it being their problem.

Hi @thedarkhorse

Difficult times ahead of us.

Thank you for your kind comment. I appreciate it a lot.

Yours
Piotr

  ·  5 years ago (edited)

Oh, my friend. I know this terrible and crazy dynamic very well!

Maybe you know that this mad releasing of money is exactly what the Venezuelan government has done all this years, in a proportion, maybe, infinitely higher than every other country. And look at us now, eating shit.

The first time I got this comprehension in a strong manner was when I saw the documentary series Zeitgeist. Do you know it? There the author explains very well the mechanisms by which corporations, banks and governments hold the control of society by simply creating debt.

I recommend you to look at least this excerpt:
Money creation and fractional reserve banking

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories, but these dynamics show themselves clearly as sick forms of mass control.

!tip

Thank you again @spirajn for resteeming my latest post and your amazing comment.

Seriously one of the best i've read in this topic. Appreciate your time buddy.

I will watch this video right away. It's from 2012 so it's not the newest ...

ps. God bless Venezuela
Yours, Piotr

Hi Piotr,
Thanks for this interesting topic. I think you get the concept quite well. The more money in the economy the more goods should be produced to compensate it. All countries are using the same economical concept which means growth can be created by increasing the money supply. Countries all over the world are doing it at least since 2008.

In Switzerland for example we have a negative interest rate. This means that you are actually being paid for making depts! How crazy is that.

Growth and cheap money a very short term solution

Politicians worldwide believe that a good economy depends on growth and that this growth can be optained by increasing the money supply. This works and we see the results everywhere. Products are getting cheaper and cheaper. We buy to throw away which results for example in huge plastic waste in the oceans all over the world. We also have a bad alocation of funds as you point out quite well. Instead to use this money to invest we have bubbles in the real estate market and the share market.

Countries and individuals can buy with the money of tomorrow by using dept but there is a point where the charge of the dept doesn't allow it anymore. In a way this point is already reached in many places(Greece, Italy, Argentina, South Africa,...). Once the point is reached where the dept can't be served anymore there is no solution. Everybody seems to put their head into the sand and ignore this. What will come then? I can only think of quite negative outcomes, like Venezuelian like hyperinflation.

These "growth with cheap money" policies have the result that we not only rob the future generations of their economical development but we also produce all the waste of the future today and ruin the planet.

We have to come up with another set of policies

Protecting the climate and the environment, protecting the interests of future generations, in short sustainable developments starts with having a new set of societal values that are different from purely economical values.

hello @ achim03

Protecting the climate and the environment, protecting the interests of future generations, in short sustainable developments starts with having a new set of societal values that are different from purely economical values.

In order to achieve a stable economy, social principles must be evaluated; A consumerist consciousness has been created that states that we should eat the hen of the golden eggs, that we should consume the seeds. If we sacrifice the chicken we will not have more eggs; if we consume the seeds we will not have to sow. Consumption awareness should be generated, which will lower the debt.

You are quite right. We live in world of greed where we want to make money of the chicken, the eggs, the seeds and even the nutriments for the earth. One generation uses it all. We should learn that we dont need consumption and growth to live a happy life...

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Thanks for sharing your thoughts @tramelibre

Yours, Piotr

Dear @achim03

Thank you for your great comment.

In Switzerland for example we have a negative interest rate. This means that you are actually being paid for making depts! How crazy is that.

That's very unique. I wonder what is advantage and disadvantage of that solution. In a long term (probably longer than our life) this system sounds like a economical suicide.

ps.
Recently I've bumped into this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

It does shows debts of all major countries and I noticed that with few exceptions everywhere debt is increasing. However 4 countries (including Poland and Germany) seem to have their debt going down.

And I was wondering how could that be possible? Also I realized that Poland has very good ratio between debt to GDP (around 50%), which is great comparing to countries like France (107%) or Italy (147%). Not to mention JApan (261%).

I found it so confusing. It would suggest that Poland have more stable economy than majority countries out there. Looking at those numbers could even suggest that Japan is serious financial trouble.

Mind sharing your thoughts?

Yours
Piotr

Hi @crypto.piotr,

I found the link quite interesting. It's amazing to see how much dept there is around and how fast it developps. I share your feeling about confusion... It's difficult to interpret these numbers correctly. One thing we should keep in mind is that all these dept is compared to the GDP. So this means that to make these numbers look better governments can either reduce the dept by reducing spending, or they can try to increase GDP by spending even more. Politically speaking it seems always easier to spend more to "encourage" the economy.

Probably the whole castle of cards would come crumbling down if we had a new economical crisis with lower GDP's.

What can we expect of this? I don't know but I doesn't seem a healthy tendency ...

Cheers
Achim

Cheap money is a temporary solution. Then, it becomes a problem. Repeat as necessary.

Cheap money is Indeed a temporary solution but a solution that used makes the problem worse in the long term. We will come to the point where we need another medicine to solve this problem...

Right, the problem is exacerbating. And there's no new medicine available yet. Hope someone comes up with a solution.

Yes @ majes.tytyty....u r right. This temporary solution will only lead to Permanent problem!

Perhaps we should all buy a printing machine Piotr.
Oh wait isn't it illegal for a person to print money its call counterfeiting.
Which is just about what every government in the world is doing.
Printing their own wealth.
The ultimate end will, as others have said will be hyper inflation.
Let's invest in crypto whilst the President of the US and others around the world still don't understand it.
By the time they realise what is happening it will be to late.
Tech coins have value way beyond paper.
And of course you can't burn them😎

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Good point. The first thing we people of the world is work our way around all the counterfeit money sloshing around the globe. And cryptocurrencies are that first step.

Onwards.

I can see it now. Your 40 dollars steem turning into 4 million. lol. You will be so old by the time it reaches even $500.00 that you wont know what you have. xx If it can even get out of the starting gate and reach 50 dollars. lol

Ha ha watch this space 😁

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Dear @andyjem

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Yours
Piotr

Thanks Piotr.
I do like to look at the obvious.
I am always hearing how expensive and the amount of electricity it costs to produce crypto. But no one ever looks at the huge cost of mining oil coal diamonds and gold.
Plus most involve digging bloody great holes in our precious planet 😁

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Dear Piotr, i was in USA this month begin and i see how this economy do not care about others countries...
China and USA can do whatever they want, who can say something to them?
The problem is here in Europe!
Too many different country are not finding a solution of economy trouble, so the main word is saving and put people on poverty...
I believe USA and China will not put their people on poverty, so thats why they are pumping economy and this is good thing compare with EU thats is unable to do it and just ask always to pay more tax and get less money!
The economy is a chain, if the consumers have no money, they will not buy anything, so company will have nothing to sell and recesion happen!
My friend, both of us need to move to USA to get what we deserve...

If you move to the USSA, you will get what you deserve. I call it "hell." :-)

@intellihandling

I live in France, am not rich, so I believe I can comment fairly confident of what I say. Inflating the economy is NOT good. Yes, the word is to keep the national spendings under 3% because that is the level where the nation can't catch up with its debt, and finally end up like Greece has ended up. China won't put its people to poverty? I think you seriously need to take a trip there. As for the USA, is the size of a super nation gives them flexibility... however, don't believe that it's an almighty shield when badly handled, the economy will explode.

It's because we're aware of the debt inflation, and the state's debt that in Europe, our economy is relatively more stable than it was when we were different states.

@intellihandling @dennyfloro

I am an American and would not encourage either of you to think somehow the USA is going to escape the consequences of what @crypto.piotr is writing about here in his post.

The financial challenge we face is (IMHO) greater than understood by most Americans. And I further believe that it does not matter whether there is a Republican (today) or Democrat (tomorrow?) in power. Politically speaking, the honest solution to our financial woes is greater than anyone is prepared to even acknowledge, let alone address ...

As with much of the world, if “we the people” were told the truth of what it would take to get out of this mess, we (collectively) would say, ”What?! That can’t be the answer! I’m not doing that …”

@roleerob I believe you must have mistaken my post's meaning.

I don't believe Americans will get out of this crisis anytime soon. It's not some finger-snapping kind of problem. Plus, from what I've heard, a certain someone could be reelected. If that happens, before the economy is a problem, democracy in and per itself will be a bigger issue, I think.

  ·  5 years ago (edited)

Okay @djennyfloro, perhaps, but ...

"... a certain someone could be reelected. If that happens, before the economy is a problem, democracy in and per itself will be a bigger issue, I think."

... my primary point remains the same. It does not matter who is elected. The financial problem we face is greater than either party or any elected official ...

Thank you for your amazing comment @roleerob

Dear @djennyfloro, thank you for your answer, but this matter of 3% Is the warm of poverty...
I was in China in january and i can tell you they have Better economic Life, but they pay for It with limited Freedom, no facebook, Google, WhatsApp, only WeChat which gave to chinese goverment the pass to check users.
I was in Usa 3 weeks ago and they live in another world, their president gave them guns and limitations of immigrants, this Is what they Need, living in their Happy world with no caring that much what Is going on in other countries....

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Many US citizens are not only blind to the outside world, they're also oblivious to what's happening in their own country.

Dear @djennyfloro

Yes, the word is to keep the national spendings under 3% because that is the level where the nation can't catch up with its debt, and finally end up like Greece has ended up

Thank you for your great comment.

Is this problem with not being capable of paying debt really related to those 3% national spendings? Isn't more related to ratio between debt and GDP? Just wondering.

Recently I've bumped into this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

It does shows debts of all major countries and I noticed that with few exceptions everywhere debt is increasing. However 4 countries (including Poland and Germany) seem to have their debt going down.

And I was wondering how could that be possible? Also I realized that Poland has very good ratio between debt to GDP (around 50%), which is great comparing to countries like France (107%) or Italy (147%). Not to mention JApan (261%).

I found it so confusing. It would suggest that Poland have more stable economy than majority countries out there. Looking at those numbers could even suggest that Japan is serious financial trouble.

Mind sharing your thoughts?

Yours
Piotr

Hi @crypto.piotr

I'd rather not step into deeper depth, this is not my field of expertise, and rather than to spurt nonsense, I'd rather simply say that I was explained about the 3% by someone who is great in Finance & analytics.

I was not able to retain the entirety of his explanation, but it made total sense. I'm much too unfamiliar with English acronyms overall to fully understand your answer too, so I'll look into it too.

Friendly,
DF.

Dear @djennyfloro

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Perhaps you could also visit my latest post and share your own view on discussed topic. I would love to hear your opinion.

Yours
Piotr

Move to the USA im sure you were joking here Piotr. Lol. The most dangerous county in the world at the moment. 😁

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Do you consider USA to be the most dangerous country in the world @andyjem?

In what sense?
Yours, Piotr

Manly due to its foreign policy and intervention in the business of other sovereign countries over the last70 years
It has caused more unrest in the world by use of it military might than any other country.
It has set its self up as the worlds police without invitation.
Apart from its invasions of country across the middle east. Its latest withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran has put the world in real danger of a global war.
All this has been based on its greed for world dominance on oil. NOT on its compassion for the people of the countries. Every county it has invaded has been left much worse off.
It has become no more than a bully. Forcing its will on people that dont want it.
In the 21st century we should be looking to build closer ties and better dialogue.
Bombs and bullets are not the answer.
From a very young age we are told at school that fighting will solve nothing and are punished for doing so.
Then our leaders do the exact opposite.
Double standards don't you think.
In every religion the words 'thou shall not kill' come up.
Why is it ok when it is state sponsored?

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Hi @andyjem

Thx for your comment buddy.

ps.
Please use some "enter" from time to time to separate sentences :) Please make it easier to read.

Yours
Piotr

Ha ha yes sorry for not using space very much.
I use my phone and do forget.
I will do better next time lol 😁

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I will do better next time lol

You made me laugh so bad just now hahaha

Coach @crypto.piotr to the rescue 😎😎

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Hi @crypto.piotr
No, it will be not enough.
Recession should be here two year back and for sure somewhere is rising really big economic nightmare. But from media it is look like everything is OK.
But maybe new technology save them, but I do not believe in it.

Thank you for your kind comment @petrvl

Enjoy your monday :)
Yours, Piotr

My dear friend @crypto.piotr

Definitely within your explanation you are absolutely right to generate more public spending and additional print more money without backup generate future economic uncertainty.
But its results can be seen once that this in full development, Now it can be dismantled but it would also imply to be able to have much more entrepreneurship that can counteract that and another serious way to try to get involved in more debt, I know it is difficult because advertising and consumption in this case also tend to increase so we fall into that vicious circle and the government move.

Venezuela is a living example of this and we're going for the second time that the government changes the currency and so far in these 20 years of this bad government has removed eight zeros from the currency and have changed the name.

But there is a big difference between my country Venezuela and the United States, there are private companies that counteract this public spending and that way that the printed money are not so badly used either in terms of growth.

on the other hand in Venezuela every day as long as government criminals are there will continue to foment that public expenditure bringing the consequence of more hyperinflation.

Each country has its own experiences, however I hope you don't shoot me but Trump is a lynx in business for something to the U.S. economy this year grew, compared to other governments. It should be noted that this opinion is only by information from economic news emanating from that country.

Dear @lanzjoseg

Is actually Venezuelan currency backed by anything? Usually you can print new money when you create new debt. But Venezuela doesn't seem to follow that rule.

Thank you for your amazing comment

Yours
Piotr

It's great to see that you got so much discussing going about this topic. I think the U.S. is trying to prevent a rough crash. It's going to be an interesting year

Hi @schubes

I'm also glad to see that so many people decided to share their opinion :) Thx for dropping by buddy

Yours
Piotr

World wars erase all the debts. It already happened twice.

Hi,

It was a thing of the past. If a World War happens once again, not only will it erase the debts, but also will erase the entire humanity!

Perhaps not the entire humanity. Just most of us will die. However hundreds of thousands may survive in underground facilities spread all over the world. Wouldn't you agree @marvyinnovation?

Cheers
Piotr

Yes @crypto.piotr, u r right. Thanks to the advancement of S&T, which made this possible.

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Hi @oldtimer

I presume that you mean war war 1 and 2? Do you think both wars wouldn't happened if debt wouldn't pile up and push economies into dark-hole?

Yours
Piotr

I'm sure that was one of the cases why II ww. German mark was having so big inflation in 1920s and 1930s, you can not even imagine. Second reason why war happened was because of German (Nazi) greed. They knew that in centuries before, Europe has robbed the world, specially Africa and Asia. All the diamonds, gold, silver,..from the world was kept in Europe. And Nazis wanted it for them self. Because they wanted to have power.

It's always economy.

Hi @crypto.piotr,

Firstly, let me thank you for sending me the link of your Wonderful Article.

To be more appropriate, your article is the need of the hour. All the points that are listed in the blog post are perfectly listed and briefed.

"Can it really allow goverments to avoid global economic recession by another few years?"

Yes obviously. By doing so, we are postponing the recession...for some more years!

"...or perhaps it’s a little bit too late or simply not enough?"

My answer is.....Just continue the current trend. Get more debts. Investment the same in the construction of factories, lots & lots of factories in all fields in a BROAD ASPECT. The benefit is of two fold. Firstly, it will solve the unemployment problem and the productivity will increase as a result of it. Revenue will be generated. The sale of goods will bring in more profit and the profit can be used to settle down the old debts.

If all the countries follow suit, imagine what a Positive Wave of TsunaMoney it will send across the entire world.

This is my humble opinion @crypto.piotr.

"I’m far from being an expert...."

But the way you presented this blogpost proves beyond doubt that you have become an expert @crypto.piotr

your article is the need of the hour. All the points that are listed in the blog post are perfectly listed and briefed.

I'm blushing now @marvyinnovation :)

Have a great monday ahead :)

the way you presented this blogpost proves beyond doubt that you have become an expert

blushing again! stop it! :)

Yours
Piotr

They can’t possibly lower the interest rates forever.

When it blows, it will be spectacular. Better start stockpiling resources (cash, crypto, precious metals, etc) along with everyday necessities.

Hi @enforcer48

did you start stockpilling already? :)

Totally.

You gotta get every bit you can before the masses fight you over them.

Euro is printed too, the USA and China are no exception. Years ago the USA was bankrupt, like more countries, but this seem to work. 💕

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Yep. The US is bankrupt. Its debt is close to $23 trillion! That's insane. Nobody will ever be able to repay that.

Greece is bankrupt too... quess more countries are but they are all still there. I assume a country can not go bankrupt since it is still there, no bank or country will claim it 🤔.

Posted using Partiko Android

You have a point. A bankrupt company will just disappear, but a bankrupt country ....

It won't disappear, but certainly, the situation will get bad. Worse than most people expect.

Printing money had been tried by FED from 2008 to 2015 with buying dead bonds to boost USA's and world ecenomy. I think USA should be in debt for global economic development. Imagine, USA have foreign trading surplus which means USA sold more goods than buying from other countries. This would bring dollars to homeland and not be good for global economy.

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Thanks for sharing your thoughts @videoaddiction

Yours, Piotr

When I was very young, I thought to myself—if a country is poor, why don't they just print more money?...

Hello my dear friend

I am not an expert in finance (as I have always told you) but from my own experience, printing more currency is not the solution and as an example the situation in which I live every day. Printing more coins causes inflation and devaluates the currency, so much so that they had to create a new currency (El bolívar fuerte, BsF) that also devalued over time and again created another currency (El bolívar soberano, BsS) that lately has fallen quite low. And they continue creating more denomination, now they printed bills of 10 thousand, 20 thousand and 50 thousand of the last currency as a means to solve the economic crisis. Aren't we going back to the same thing? It seems that they expect to obtain new results executing the same solution as always (printing more coins).

Stay in touch 😊

Agree with you my friend @jadams2k18.

Printing more coins causes inflation and devaluates the currency, so much so that they had to create a new currency (El bolívar fuerte, BsF) that also devalued over time and again created another currency (El bolívar soberano, BsS) that lately has fallen quite low. And they continue creating more denomination, now they printed bills of 10 thousand, 20 thousand and 50 thousand of the last currency as a means to solve the economic crisis. Aren't we going back to the same thing? It seems that they expect to obtain new results executing the same solution as always (printing more coins).

Same thing repeating over and over even after looking into what happened to Zimbabwe.

When Zimbabwe was hit by hyperinflation, in 2008, prices rose as much as 231,000,000% in a single year. Imagine, a sweet which cost one Zimbabwe dollar before the inflation would have cost 231m Zimbabwean dollars a year later.

Hello, again @flash07!

The same thing was happening as in Germany after World War I. Where children played with packages of bills whose value was negligible. Those of us who do not keep an eye on the past tend to repeat it. That's why today I'm interested in learning universal history. 😉

Thanks for passing by 😄

Great. Hope we will get great topic on universal history soon from you 😉

By the how's situation there in your country. Any improvements ? Hope Cryptocurrency helping you little.

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Crypto is a blessing for all of us! Dollar keeps rising so our currency is devaluating over and over 😕

@jadams2k18 Hope situation will be better for you guys soon.

Good to know that crypto is helping you guys.

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Thanks for sharing your thoughts @jadams2k18

Yours, Piotr

It's a pleasure :D

At this point, they really have no choice but to keep inflating the debt to keep this system going hoping by some miracle that there will be some new value creation tool created from this money that could replay the debt and eat into the principle which is not going to happen. All we've done is safely tie debts to another 3-5 generation of citizens who will have to work that off and be taxed for their labour, that's if there are still enough labour producing jobs to tax for it.

The system is broken and eventually, it will hit the impact no matter how much you print, it has to come crashing down.

Dear @chekohler

The system is broken and eventually, it will hit the impact no matter how much you print, it has to come crashing down.

Indeed.

Let's hope that we won't witness collapse of this debt based economy during our lifetime.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Piotr

Dear @crypto.piotr. Your question is
"Do you, dear readers, believe that this kind of solutions (printing more money, creating more debts) will be enough?"
But what can be another solution for government.

Thank you for this valuable post

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And I thank you for dropping by @huseyinunozkan16 :)

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@crypto.piotr
MORE GOVERNMENT SPENDING = MORE TAXES
Today, July 31, 2019, for the very first time in U.S. History, the 10-year Treasury Bond is returning a NEGATIVE YIELD! It costs $1,028.60 to buy one, and you will be paid back $1,000 in 10 years. Thanks for your Patriotism!!! :D Just keep on going to work to earn those DOLLARS and you should be just fine, right?!?!

IDK about you, but I went out and bought some more silver bullion today - to add it to my stack!!! Screw that paper $#!t !!!

Dear @bi5h0p

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Perhaps you could also visit my latest post and share your own view on discussed topic. I would love to hear your opinion.

Yours
Piotr

  ·  5 years ago 

Yes, "WORLD LEADERS" PUSHING GLOBAL RECESSION AWAY from our doorsteps!
Because the pie is fixed, he wants to increase his amount, which is bound to reduce the amount of outside.

They are just delaying the inevitable. Probably planned, I don't know. They are choosing short term solutions to long term problems

ECB will follow in September, meanwhile there are thousands of people being fired at several big european based multinationals.

If you read in about what is actually going on with DB, you realize that this could and probably will turn out as a new lehmann

Economy & recession goes in cycles, and even if past results are not a guarantee, we are long overdue since the crash of 2008.

According to many the world as a whole has been bankrupt since 2008 crash, and we are now living inna fake simulated economy, which has also huge consequences, and the crash will be harder then before. All the western economies, IMF & CB’s & governments are trying to do now is to buy time

After the big crash, the solution will be some kind of (blockchain based) electronic payment system, which will result in more control and a bigger noose around the neck of the regular civilian

1984

Dear @elektropunkz

Thank you for your great comment.

If you read in about what is actually going on with DB, you realize that this could and probably will turn out as a new lehmann

I've been just wondering ... Lehmann has been bailed out by goverments. Do you think DB can be bailed out as well? Will public allow it again?

Economy & recession goes in cycles, and even if past results are not a guarantee, we are long overdue since the crash of 2008.

That's very true. However those cycles seem to be already "stretched" by financial engineering and I wonder if we just bought ourself another few years of "peace and prosperity".

ps.
Recently I've bumped into this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

It does shows debts of all major countries and I noticed that with few exceptions everywhere debt is increasing. However 4 countries (including Poland and Germany) seem to have their debt going down.

And I was wondering how could that be possible? Also I realized that Poland has very good ratio between debt to GDP (around 50%), which is great comparing to countries like France (107%) or Italy (147%). Not to mention JApan (261%).

I found it so confusing. It would suggest that Poland have more stable economy than majority countries out there. Looking at those numbers could even suggest that Japan is serious financial trouble.

Mind sharing your thoughts?

Yours
Piotr

If you look at the measurements they placed with the greek crisis, if there’s going to be a bailout, the mormal db customers will be the ones financing the bailout. Japan has been in trouble for many years now, Poland (as other eastern european countries that became EU member) have a good thing going on at the moment, they get more out of the EU then what they have to pay to the EU. And also income is rising, and taxes not so high as in the West of eu. In NL we have an median of 80% tax pressure on the income. Which is crazy

Let´s be honest, the crisis and recessions are what makes the rich getting, even more, richer, because they are not caught on the downside of it.

But, it is what it is, and this solution seems a bit desperate in my opinion.

Indeed it does look like a very desperate solution.

Thank you for sharing your thought with me @diogosantos. Appreciate.

Yours, Piotr

Printing more money it definitely not the answer just makes money worthless we need to be better than money really in my opinion capitalism isn't working more isn't better not enough resources.

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Hi @crypto.piotr

In the past, some countries had a gold reserve and, as far as I understood, no more money was to be printed up in value than we had in gold values. Then there was a substance a balance between money and gold reserves.
It was a sensible business plan to manage our money
The block was lifted and part of the gold sale was sold to Russia.

With pushing up more money there must be a good substance behind it that has a balance of values ​​behind it, otherwise it will just be a bubble that just cracks and people will lose houses and homes on such borrowed money

This means that those with capital can buy property and houses cheaply and they will only strengthen their wealth, while others will only become poorer.

It creates chaos as we see more and more of the world today

"An Old saying goes that poverty is the root of all evil"
That's probably not right, that's what we do to poverty

Dear @xpilar

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Perhaps you could also visit my latest post and share your own view on discussed topic. I would love to hear your opinion.

Yours
Piotr

thank you for your answer @crypto.piotr

I will read your next post

I'm from Russia. I tried to google the answer to your question "how about the other countries." but it is complicated and confusing...

Russia's economy is in a recession (in other words: we are falling in the Huge Black Hole), investments into economy is out of the question, the key tasks of the Central Bank of Russia are to contain inflation, to contain growth of the dollar exchange rate, to freeze the growth rate of consumer prices, and so on. I can say for sure, they do not print money to invest in the economy and to revive it.

Late thank you for this excellent comment @qwerrie

Yours, Piotr

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The quantitative easing that the governments are doing is a time bomb, which when it explode, will make the 29's crisis becoming a small little problem.

Create more debt or print more money (to different ways to intervene in the economy) always will create problems at the long short. If you print a lot of money, you have inflation. If you have a lot of debt, you have default problems. There is no free lunch.

Late thank you for this excellent comment @robertoueti

Yours, Piotr

Economically speaking the amount of global debt means we are in uncharted territory, Beware Here be Dragons. Personally I agree that this smoke and mirrors global economy and currency game will end up hurting a lot of people. So yes Crypto.Piotr I think you've got a good grip on the situation, the next question should be what are you doing to protect yourself?

Moved to the Hive platform.

Dear @holovision

Thank you for accepting my memo and for such an amazing reply.

I've think never actually thanked you for your previous comment. So let me do that now: BIG THX buddy :)

after the next large economic crisis there would be post-scarcity

I'm not sure what does it mean?

The next economic crisis would be a fixed point in time that can't be changed.

Hope we will not live long enough to witness such a crisis.

Yours
Piotr

Hi again!

A few comments on this acute post:

So perhaps with all those new easy money entering markets and economies, we will experience another 2-3 years of prosperity and growth?

I think that 'main street' will not at all benefit from this money pumping (as has been the case since 2008). But rather, it will continue to inflate the stock market, as that is where this money goes, nowhere else (apart from being accumulated as debt with future interest due).

The way I see it is that we’re using wealth from “the future” (our future time, energy, effort etc) within current days. We’re basically sucking all of our resources from the future and using them today.

Bingo! That is exactly what this (money printing) is; namely, borrowing "wealth" from the future to have it today (but at a huge cost to future generations). This will be absolutely devastating to them.

Technical question:

How the heck did you make those cool tables? (the ones with the images in the left column and the questions in the right column). I'd really like to know how to do this but don't know the relevant Steemit tags to do so. Thanks!

Hi @libertyacademy

Another yet valuable comment. Im impressed that you've read some of the other replies.

it will continue to inflate the stock market, as that is where this money goes, nowhere else (apart from being accumulated as debt with future interest due).

Very sad and very true.

That is exactly what this (money printing) is; namely, borrowing "wealth" from the future to have it today (but at a huge cost to future generations).

And the best part is that most of that wealth is ending up (as you mentioned) on stock markets.

I see it this way: we all are creating debts to get some money for living, and majority of those money are ending up in pockets of financial giants and stock markets. However we (people) are still having debts, just we don't have money we borrowed.

ps.
To answer your technical question. Please visit: https://guides.github.com/features/mastering-markdown/
And look for section "Tables". It's quite easy and straight forward.

Yours
Piotr

Agreed @crypto.piotr!

And thank you so much for the Tables / Markdowns hacks. Great stuff and I will try to learn more in order to craft more appealing posts.

Much appreciated!

That's the reason why Bitcoin (or any other Crypto) will destroy fiat money long-term.

Thx for your kind comment

hopefully none of it would happen during our lifetime @elbiasto

collapse of FIAT currency could bring entire world to its knees and I would expect long years before our lifes would get back to "normal"

Yours
Piotr

Our system of measuring value is a relic from the 19th and early 20th century. Until we fix that, i'm afraid that we're not going to solve the root of the problem and create real solutions for 21st century life.

Monetary policy isn't going to fix a broken fiscal and trade policy. It is like giving a weak pain-killer to a cancer patient. Eventually, it will not work and the patient will be worse off.

Dear @charcoalbuffet

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Perhaps you could also visit my latest post and share your own view on discussed topic. I would love to hear your opinion.

Yours
Piotr

A while ago I opened my eyes wildly in shock reading today’s news.

Stop doing that - they only tell you small pieces of the mess to inflame you and throw you off your game.

And yes, they will kick all their cans as far down the road for as long as they can as anyone would. Pensions, assets without underlying value, health care, high death, and low birth rates, disease rates, poisoned food. It's all bad and much more.

Best to ignore the "bad news of the day" since its cherry-picked for you.

My opinion for this is simple.
All people on the world just need money for cover living cost.
If government dept the country too much and it's not possible to cover the debt. We get the hyper inflation, where money lose the value and people can't sustain their live.
If that will push forward that will be happen to more and more countries.
Weak countries can be easy defeated by stronger countries, which now invest in military and that is the reason why WORLD WAR 3 is just possible.

Czesc @atnazo

Dopiero zauwazylem ze jestes z polski :) Dzieki za komentarz.

Pozdrawiam serdecznie,
Piotr

support the post - but we cannot influence them - we can only get ready - and diversify our assets. Maybe it will be 1 year, maybe 10 - now you have to think about accumulating in safe assets - when everything collapses there will be an opportunity to buy cheap / this is an inevitable process - just get ready - it will be fun!

Hey @crypto.piotr,

Generally, printing more money or increasing debt is a sign of a struggling economy. My opinion is that the politicians making these decisions only care about one thing - the next election. They will do whatever it takes to get themselves re-elected, regardless of the long term consequences. If they think that putting in a provably poor economic policy (printing more money)will delay an economic slowdown until after the next election, they will happily do so.

I think that a major economic crash is coming, not sure when, but it is on the horizon. I just hope that I can build enough of a position in Crypto in time to ride it out. Crypto is going to become a "safe haven" investment (among other things) during times of economic uncertainty, I believe.

Thank you for this excellent comment @jk6276.leo

  ·  5 years ago (edited)

Hello @crypto.piotr

For my honest opinion...

The answer is.

No

This also includes the extensive Scot that is being mined and distributed.

Without real implication, this is really going to keep the debt ceiling higher and higher.

Be it the government or the crypto world.

We probably have to find a way to brainstorm into helping both the public and SME as partnership to stir up economy.

Question is, which one is the best token / crypto that is usable and grow into something big and decentralised on the long run?

Amazing comment @dses

Thank you for sharing your "honest opinion" with me. I always appreciate.

Have a great monday ahead :)

Yours
Piotr

  ·  5 years ago (edited)

They need to keep their "bubble" on the same growth level. The idea is very simple, the moment the bubble "indicates" that is drying out, investors will withdraw money from it, further reducing the profits for others, therefore others will also withdraw. Hence if no "profits" are generated "artificially" via depth creation, there will be no REAL NEW investment.

This is why the normal monetary system is doomed to blow one day. Crypto will take over, I am sure. When is (was always to my view) the question...

Late thank you for this excellent comment @forykw

Yours, Piotr

@crypto.piotr firstly i really enjoy reading all your articles and specially like this one. You address something that really does raise the same questions in me. I believe that the solution to this problem was already devised in 1947 and the issues were pointed out by people like Egene Böhm Bamwerk or Mises in particular in great detail. Deficit spending has been carried out throughout history and must be looked in terms of products and services that are coupled with resources that are being bought cheap by means of regulatory frameworks that finally were defined by probably the same colonists that secured them. I believe there is a FIAT money battle being fought, that will continue as this new paradigm will unfold. Finally it is being allowed by a group of intellectuals that literally had to wait until recently for us to be able to carry out this experiment with the D-Economy. For some the neo-liberalists and for others the libertarians, or a so called covert Organisation named mont-pelerin. Stuard Hall has a great essay on neoliberalism. Keynes is gone and the second world war is over, but we are still living by the same marxian monkey circus that doesn’t have a free market due to corporate oligarchy in many governments and also institutions. I believe when it comes to institutions such as the IMF etc. of today, we do have some influential academics who really are putting an end to violence and mass consumerism that really rose from macroeconomic marginal subjectivism. I think one think tank can overpower another over time and yes, i believe in think tanks that are malevolent in their overall conduct motivated by self interest and don’t benefit humanity as a whole. We simply can’t afford to destroy the only home we have. If the above are corrupt, i believe there is always someone higher and on top of them that says: ‘wait a second guys, you can’t do this’. When the Keynesian consensus began to collapse in the 70s the remnants caused perennial inflation, lead to erosion of value and for a reoccurring financial crisis. Thatcher met Hayek! Today i believe we are tackling the issues of global warming, automation and wealth inequality. I welcome this new age of international political economy and embrace a more laissez-faire ideology.

Dear @yangyanje

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Perhaps you could also visit my latest post and share your own view on discussed topic. I would love to hear your opinion.

ps.
Would you perhaps consider using "enter" from time to time? To separate blocks of texts? It would make it much easier to read.

Yours
Piotr

My friend,
@crypto.piotr!

Printing more paper money, banknotes or fiat money, whatever they call it, what you achieve in the medium and long term is to increase the inflationary phenomenon and reduce people's purchasing power. In addition, it pulverizes the salary of workers who will greatly affect their family or business economy.
It is a way to hide the impact of the economic crisis that may be looming in a given territory or nation...
The main sectors affected must be the production of food and goods and services, in the midst of this problem is the common citizen who can see their quality of life deteriorated.

On the other hand, I understand that the world economy meets certain cycles of adjustment or adaptation to new demands, I also understand that from time to time central banks have the option of printing a certain amount of paper money to replace old bills with new bills,

"but At the time that China prints fiat money from other countries, I think it is a well-studied agreement that allows China to invest on a large scale in infrastructure and services works expanding the power of its economy on a global scale."

Thank you for inviting me to this forum, I hope to have contributed to my comment! @nachomolina

Thank you for this amazing comment @nachomolina

The bubble boom to bust is certainly a premeditated cyclical pattern. Only the names change the faces are all the same. The eventual and inevitable collapse only negatively impacts the poor and middle class and is designed to create a greater dependence on the machinations of our controllers.. Proxy wars, famine, genocide, race baiting, classism, etc are all successful tools of the trade to keep social mobility in check. It's us and them but they do an amazing job of convincing all of us to fight each other over money and religion for the most part. I'm not saying its so elaborate as to be attributed to the Illuminati it's just a fact that when you have acquired a certain amount of wealth you can no longer lose or make bad investments.. The CIA and the military industrial complex of the west insure the paper trail always ends up where it's supposed to..

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I just realized that I never thanded you for this amazing comment @skramatters

BIG THX buddy :)
Yours, Piotr

Dept can be:

  • repayed
  • refused to repay (declaring bankrupcy)
  • inflated.
    I vote for the third. Economists are wondering for 10 years why we don't have inflation. I think in some years, we will have. If the zero-interest-rate and the quantitative-easing-nrX don't help, the helicopter-money will have to come. (If nothing else helps to the economy, they will print even more money and give it to the people who will in fact spend it.)
    The USA also inflated its debt after the World War II.

Thank you again @deathcross for your amazing comment.

Have a great monday ahead :)
Piotr

We must prepare for it. Waoo, but my country Venezuela has been going through it for almost 20 years.
Then, a recession is coming. And long before its established term of 2 to 3 years. Probably in a year.

great post, great concern;
I Personally think next recession is just right there, 2020 or '21
get prepared... specifically with your crypto holdings

Hi @crypto.piotr,

I believe you are aware that elections are a question of pleasing, right?

What please people?

Among other things, good news. That's why there are polls and that's why polls are made to look good. There is no such politician as one who doesn't know what his electors want, so they make sure the numbers reflect that.

Another one, in today's society, is possession. People want to possess. "You may have the Galaxy 5 but I have the Galaxy 6." Want to sell a house? Tell your client what he will have the others don't, even if it's as silly as an antenna to receive all the cable chain. Let's be honest, who has ever looked at ALL the cable chain?

It's always the same. That's where such an account comes into the picture. "You'll possess more, you'll be able to get more, don't worry. Is it about putting better food on the table? Not quite. It's only so for such a small percentage of the population that a politician won't care for this type of audience unless he's playing the social card... and even so, it's for those who already have food, and want phones, computer, etc... Tell me how many people have a PC who far surpass in specs the need for what they're doing? What does the latest PC have that's essential for firing google and word, or even outlook that the one you brought 3 years ago doesn't have?

So to please the never-satiated society, they'll do such things, in order to tell them "you can possess more." For a President against him, the word "impeachment" has been pronounced, even if never enacted, he needs to please. So all kind of economic charts and 'good news' will come to please the people.

Just because they don't remember that when president A takes measures, they're only active under president B, and thus can only be judged when president C takes office, they'll think that macro-level decisions are instant. That's why... they're fooled all too easily.

Dear @djennyfloro

What an amazing comment. Please allow me to express how much I appreciate your time and effort.

Seriously I can consider myself lucky for getting to know you
Yours, Piotr

Debt is an illusion and will keep going like this to keep the current economy stable. The worst that might happen, they will reset the system for something better, erase the debt and start over.

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Hi @chesatochi

The idea of reseting the system scares the shit out of me. New system would surely be very different from current one. I wonder if reseting system would also mean another global conflict. I hope not ....

Cheers
Piotr

Greetings @ crypto.piotr

I am not an economist, so I cannot give you an opinion from that criterion, now as an investor, and I think that somehow we all are, the debt problem is whether the debt is good or bad.

If you borrow to invest in products or services that will help you improve your productive efficiency, the debt is good; On the contrary, if you get into debt to invest in trivial products or services or for vanity, which will not generate any added value, you will be generating a bad debt.

The type of debt is closely linked to social stereotypes, which are the ones that somehow mark the trends that can influence our decisions, in this sense we must control what influences us in the decision-making based on our expenses.

thanks for dropping by @tramelibre and for sharing your thoughts.

Appreciate it a lot.
Piotr

This form of world bank money printing never ends well.

Zimbabwe is a prime example of this, but they don’t want to give up the easy money that this money printing does for the markets.

At one time in my life I knew there was annual inflation, but I didn’t know that the world banks actually plan for 2% annual inflation to grease the markets.

So free money printing continues, and this continues to spur inflation and this pattern just keeps continuing.

Because the investment banks can extract a profit doing this, this will not end...... and if it does.... it will not end well.

We are caught in a trap @crypto.piotr.....🙄🙃

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Indeed Zimbabwe has been great example @silvertop

Any idea how the hell Zimbabwe or Venezuela can print that much new money? I've learned that all currencies must be backed up by debt, which isn't the case with those 2 countries, right?

Yours
Piotr

I believe that countries not only print new money, but they are also buying into the markets.

Japan is a prime example of this, and they openly tell the world that they are continually buying to prop up the market.

I believe other countries are doing the same but not so openly....

So this continues, as the world gets deeper down the drain.....

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Interesting times ahead of us @silvertop ....

Most of worlds population doesn’t even know what the world banks/governments are even doing.
Most are living paycheck to paycheck so sad.

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Hi @silvertop

Most are living paycheck to paycheck so sad.

However sad is it, I'm starting to believe that this is the best way if you want to have an simple and happy life ...

I believe a happy life is just moderation in everything.

Sometimes crypto/ investments consume too much too....
Cheers😊
@silvertop.... Mike 😊

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That's a fantastic post, I wasn't aware that the US had already started Quantitative Easing, if they indeed have then it means yes there will be more domestic spending and the local economy will see growth, however in forex markets the dollar will lose value against other currencies due to increased supply and market sentiment related to it, this will devalue the dollar which means all imports such as technology, oil, Amazon and Ebay purchases etc will become more expensive, exports however will thrive. With the dollar devaluing it may destabilise the global economy because the dollar is still very much seen as the reserve currency of the world, could be good for bitcoin however.

Dear @thecryptodrive

Late thank you for this amazing comment.

I've been trying to understand concept behind Quantitative Easing and I'm starting to understand it. However I still don't know what are pros and cons of QE. Any view on that?

ps. I've seen that @lanzjoseg joined your team. Great choice. I've known him for over a year already and we're very close so I got to know him quite well. Jose is a very reliable and trustworthy.

Yours
Piotr

So QE is basically printing money, it puts a cash injection into the economy via government spending on infrastructure and whatever, creates jobs and growth but at a cost of inflation, more USD in circulation etc, so if the growth can organically sustain itself and outpace inflation from QE then QE was a success, if not then the flood of USD on the market will devalue the currency further, devaluation however does stimulate exports. Typically when QE happens a devaluation gets priced in by the market, and sentiment becomes bearish on the issuer.

Thank you for taking the time to explain how QE does work @thecryptodrive

The biggest problem I had while trying to understand this topic is concept of creating money backed up by debt. I'm not sure if QE does follow those "rules". It seem to me that QE are exceptions and are allowing to print money without new debt.

Am I right or am I getting something wrong again?

Yours
Piotr

To be honest I'm not sure if it creates new debt, but I know it creates inflation which is a form of debt in itself.

I certainly agree with your take on the situation @crypto-piotr. You don't need a degree in finances to understand that simply printing more money and increasing the debt will not solve our problem. Just scale it down and look at it from a simple household point of view. If you are in so much debt that you can't pay it back - is the solution to find a new credit card and run more debt on it up it's maximum? And there are checks and balances eventually in that scenario because after the point of insolvency, no one will grant you additional credit. You can't just make a decision and go print yourself a new one and go on your merry way incurring even more debt.

All this money printing is utterly foolish. The only reason the central banks are doing it is because they have NO ALTERNATIVE. They're screwed (beginning with an "F....."!), and they're just trying to delay the inevitable.

But by creating more fiat "money" out of thin air, they're really accomplishing nothing. They're simply kicking the can further and further down the road. But the further they kick it, the bigger and more cumbersome it becomes. Soon, their kicking will be ineffective, cuz the can will be so massive that all their efforts will be futile.

So, ya, a recession is coming. And much sooner than your stated timeframe of 2–3 years. Probably within a year.

At that time, all the asset bubbles and the QE-inflated money bubble will pop. Guess what will happen when all the bubbles pop, in unison or one after another. There will be blood in the streets.

Dear @majes.tytyty

Very wise comment buddy. However I'm not sure if "They're screwed" (like you said). I think they're all going to be okey, but "WE ARE screwed" for sure ...

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Yours
Piotr

It was my pleasure. I found the topic very engaging, and I could not resist responding to both your post and many of the comments that others had made.

As for the central banksters and evil financiers being "screwed," I don't necessarily mean all those fraudsters who stole so much money from the public treasuries over the past decade(s). They'll be pretty comfortable in their gated communities and mansions.

But the organizations and the system which they destroyed thru their fraud will be screwed. And we, the little people, will suffer.

Anything the US government is doing probably won't work, because they usually design it that way.

Thank you very much for your unconditional support. I would like a delegation I do not understand much of that but if it guides me I will understan

I am surprised the whole system has not collapsed yet. How long can they keep borrowing? I guess the interest payments will become so ridiculously high that there will be no money for anything. Even borrowing more money will eventually not be enough.

My biggest concern is the dilution of wealth from continuously printing money. Some people work and save up for their retirement just to see their wealth disappear because of inflation. Printing an excessive amount of money not matched by improved productivity will eventually cause hyperinflation.

Dear @spectrumecons

My biggest concern is the dilution of wealth from continuously printing money. Some people work and save up for their retirement just to see their wealth disappear because of inflation.

That's a very good point.

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Yours
Piotr

You are right, it doesn't end well.

But when it ends and what flavour of awful it might be we can't predict. The ones in power will decide that.

Dear @buggedout

I just realized that I never actually thanked you for your amazing comment. I absolutely appreciate it.

Yours
Piotr

Greetings @crypto.piotr.

I will speak to you in my little knowledge about economics, but I am glad that you invite us to grow on the subject.

The governments of the countries at world level, I consider that they already have an established libretto. In which every time they are in economic difficulties they turn to the "great solution" of indebtedness.

For me, this is no coincidence, because it has already been proven to be a mistake with serious consequences.

Who suffers when those policies are taken?

The ordinary citizen is the one who suffers the consequences, because from them will come the payment of those acquired debts.

We are living in a world of fiction, where little by little we are being destroyed as a species. The consumption of natural resources, the terrible history in Africa, the gradual destruction of countries.

Critical thinking is increasingly suppressed, because new generations are educated thinking only of entertainment. Sport, Hollywood, etc. They do not give us time to reflect on these issues.

In the end. "The world upside down" as Eduardo Galeano said.

My respect sir @crypto.piotr.

I just realized that I never thanked you for this amazing comment @yonnathang

Critical thinking is increasingly suppressed, because new generations are educated thinking only of entertainment. Sport, Hollywood, etc. They do not give us time to reflect on these issues.

That's indeed very sad and very true.

Yours, Piotr

Thank you, my friend!

It's going to be an interesting couple of years. Because no, the downturn in economic activity has not been pushed back while the downturn in financial activity may have been pushed back. So we might see a recession without a fall in the stock market.

Dear @nealmcspadden

It would be something unusual to witness recession (crushing remaining of middle class) and stock martket growing up (increasing wealth of rich ones).

That would be enormous wealth movement. Wouldn't you agree?

Cheers, Piotr

I'm envisioning something like the stagflation of the 70s. The stock market did fine while everyday people were crushed.

May people want to stand behind it to secure their outcomes. Might they trying to pretend that are safe by such like economic strategies. All it depends upon comes

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Thanks for sharing your thoughts @hashzone91

Yours, Piotr

Saludos @crypto.piotr lo recopio para que llegue a otros y lo lean.

Answer is always the same. For central banks, with their keynesian economics...it's never enough. And they can never stop. If they do stop printing into bolivion, world economy stops. If they don't stop (and they won't, you can be sure about that) , there will be no more middle class, only filthy rich and poor. It's already happening for years all over the world, mostly western countries. Central banks are working together as one. So when one needs a overnight deposit, they call another central bank for loan. That's how world stopped turning in 2008, when central banks did not trust to each other any more and they did not loan.
What is happening now is nothing more and nothing less than Japanification of the world. Japan was in negative rate for 30 years now and it did not help at all. Why are we just turning into 5th gear down the road... I guess that's what owners of the central banks want. Bitcoin and silver can be good reserve for the future, that's coming.

Dear @worldfinances

Thank you for your great comment.

And they can never stop. If they do stop printing into bolivion, world economy stops.

Correct me if I'm wrong. They cannot print new money if it's not reflecting new debt. Am I right?

So there may be a time when creating more debt will become a serious problem.

ps.
Recently I've bumped into this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

It does shows debts of all major countries and I noticed that with few exceptions everywhere debt is increasing. However 4 countries (including Poland and Germany) seem to have their debt going down.

And I was wondering how could that be possible? Also I realized that Poland has very good ratio between debt to GDP (around 50%), which is great comparing to countries like France (107%) or Italy (147%). Not to mention JApan (261%).

I found it so confusing. It would suggest that Poland have more stable economy than majority countries out there. Looking at those numbers could even suggest that Japan is serious financial trouble.

Mind sharing your thoughts?

Yours
Piotr

"They cannot print new money if it's not reflecting new debt" That's 100% right. Printing more money doesn’t increase economic output in any way – it merely causes inflation. Every US dollar or Euro or any other currency... has to inflate and is making debt in real time. If you keep 1000 USD and use them after 10 years, they will be worth around 750 USD. But you will still have 1000 USD in your hand. You will just not be able to buy as many things as today. So the average person is the one, taking the biggest hit in all the banking scam. If banks would at least keep the inflation rates as they really are, we would see 8-11% inflation in US/EU. And people could keep their money in bank accounts and get some benefit for keeping it. Now, no one can do that. All money goes into stocks. Because of low interest rates.

And yes, Poland and Germany rates are going down. I know why Germany, and I may only think for myself why Poland . Germany took over the politics of EU and banking system. Why all from 1998 - 2001 until today, most southern countries like Italy,Portugal, Greece,...and most eastern countries like Bolgaria and Romania just can not get to the speed of developing like they should...is Germany's fault. And a bit of their own too. In late 90's, when all european banks opened their way through the rest of the continent, German's businessmen from their banks were flying from one bank to the other , mostly in south Europe, trying to buy as many banks they could. So this is the result. I can give you link from my good friend who is more detailed about Germany and Poland and what is (and was) happening. He is working in the media,and I know him.

Hi @worldfinances

It seem that difficult times are ahead of us.

Thank you for your kind comment. I appreciate it a lot.

I can give you link from my good friend who is more detailed about Germany and Poland and what is (and was) happening. He is working in the media,and I know him.

Please do it. And perhaps you could also visit my latest post and share your own view on discussed topic. I would love to hear your opinion.

Yours
Piotr

It concerns me deeply that we are not just kicking the ball ahead, but that it is snowballing. And regardless of one’s political stance, it cannot possibly seem like a good idea to rack up debt that must be dealt with by our children and their children..

Thanks for sharing your thoughts with me @jayna

Yours, Piotr

Hello @crypto.piotr! Great article firstly.

Regarding my opinion, I think pushing the recession by two years may not be so easy this time. With such easy monetary policies globally, none of the countries in the West have seen inflation pick up. Technology and cheap goods from China have ensured that inflation doesn't go up. And most central banks are mandated to keep inflation in check. With no inflation, they kept rates low, seeing positive job growth and gdp growth. What that has done is allowed companies to borrow at artificially low rates (and buy back shares, while keeping wage growth low to cut costs), and leverage has been transferred from banks to companies, consumer and govts. We keep talking about healthy labour growth. Look at wage growth of an average employee and that of top management. Look at how wealth divide has grown. All signs that the average person hasn't benefitted from low rates.

Then look at assets. Home prices are unaffordable for the young or an average family making £25000 pa in the uk or $35000 in the us. If you want to know how unhappy people are, the election outcomes can give a clear idea. People aren't racist, they are worried about their future.

Some of the economic data coming out right now is horrendous. Look at PMI data coming out from the west and china, all contracting. Nearly 50% of Russell 2000 companies have record debt and amazingly poor interest serviceability. If rates are lowered, and companies and people pile on more debt, then either lending is more sub prime (2007) or debt becomes so much that even a quarter point increase in rates can be painful. Also add to that negative effects of a trade war.

Europe never came out of a recession because economies like italy, spain can't do anything on the fiscal side. The trade war is having ramifications. There was a news i read last week that some small bank in China has failed.

Low rates have also increased financial risk taking. Pension funds are investing in same crappy instruments that caused the global financial crisis. That shoddy financial engineering is back. In fact most of the demand for corporate debt is thanks to large amount of CLOs being launched. Low rates have also caused people to invest in VC. Think about how many people are working for start-ups. Vc money can dry up very quickly.

If there is a recession, and i think there will be one - because at some point this debt fueled growth that is making the rich richer has to come to an end - it is not going to be nice. Monetary policy alone can't help us. Governments need to tax the rich and work towards balancing wealth distribution. But politicians are also wealthy so we can't do that.

US China isn't the only trade war. Next in line will be protectionism from others. And then china is probably not going to be the factory for every thing that the world consumes. That itself can have profound implications.

Anyway, recession is coming. Gold hasn't moved for no reason.

Dear @karamyog

Thank you for your great comment.

I think pushing the recession by two years may not be so easy this time.

So I presume that you also believe that recession is comming and difficult times are ahead of us?

Then look at assets. Home prices are unaffordable for the young or an average family making £25000 pa in the uk or $35000 in the us. If you want to know how unhappy people are, the election outcomes can give a clear idea. People aren't racist, they are worried about their future.

Can you imagine how difficult it would be if mortgages would last 50years (instead of standard 30)? That would allow to push housing price up even more to ATH.

ps.
Recently I've bumped into this site: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

It does shows debts of all major countries and I noticed that with few exceptions everywhere debt is increasing. However 4 countries (including Poland and Germany) seem to have their debt going down.

And I was wondering how could that be possible? Also I realized that Poland has very good ratio between debt to GDP (around 50%), which is great comparing to countries like France (107%) or Italy (147%). Not to mention JApan (261%).

I found it so confusing. It would suggest that Poland have more stable economy than majority countries out there. Looking at those numbers could even suggest that Japan is serious financial trouble.

Mind sharing your thoughts?

Yours
Piotr

I do think difficult times are ahead of us. I don't think corporate balance sheet leverage and consumer leverage can be sustained by lowering rates.

50 year mortgages just mean people are increasing risk assuming that they will work for 50 years and be able to pay down the debt. 50 year mortgages would also increase risk on bank balance sheets. And when asked to compensate for longer tenor, consumers would end up paying more monthly installments.

Germany runs a current account surplus. It's has strong exports and can sustain. Its the other european countries that are troubled. Too much debt also means there's demand for that debt because a country's economic prospects, ability to generate tax revenue, lots of other factors can help reduce debt. There may not be demand for polish debt and who knows if they are hiding debt using off balance sheet mechanisms like greece did. Also, may be govt in Poland isn't investing enough. I don't know enough or in fact anything about Poland and its economy.

Indian govt does not have a lot of debt. However, taxation policy is loose and corruption rampant. One indicator alone, debt to gdp in this case, doesn't mean much. Japan has strong exports, Most debt is held by pension funds (local) and is denominated in JPY. Moreover it's a rich country. That's why Japanese debt is considered safe haven despite the country's leverage.

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Indeed @karamyog Difficult times ahead of us.

Thank you for your brilliant comment. I appreciate it a lot.

ps. Perhaps you could also visit my latest post and share your own view on discussed topic. I would love to hear your opinion.

Yours
Piotr

I'll have a look @crypto.piotr

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Well, I am not to certain about the outcome, but the action is aimed at stoking economic activities and therefore. If it happens then it would be great. We won't be staring at recession at the end of a couple of years. If it doesn't... 😊 😊

So let's hope the economies are spurred by these actions.

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Indeed @oivas. Let's hope :)

@crypto.piotr, In my opinion, all this Currency System and Fiat System is just a Drama Theatre and we will going to see the numbers which they want to show. System is a choice and not by force, so debt is part of the system and that means it's the part of Drama Theatre and puppets play their role very well and people are busy with Entertainment World. Stay blessed brother.

Hi next bitcoin move?

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This post has received a 3.13 % upvote from @drotto thanks to: @crypto.piotr.

I'm not interested in politics and I told you before to not send me links in my wallet. Thanks. I wish you good luck with promoting your content this way. I took a look at all the comments here and they seems all commented related to the topic. So, sorry if I'm commenting with a comment non related to the topic, but I don't know a better way to reach you and to save my time. Please respect the time of people and they will respect yours.

ah can i just add a small addendum so as not to be mis-understood (im not gonna edit the reply, i'm an RC-pauper ...)

i don't advocate absolute rulers hehh ... they fixed it differently : slave labour , something that seems to get some , euh ... fans again, Orban for one, and here they have the strangest system too that's supposed to "give you opportunity" b taking a spot for an employer (who subsequenlty wont have to PAY anyone as you would be working for FREE :) ... to get a chance ... some years later, heh

bem i just wanted to add that (bit on absolute rulers, im pretty much down with one of my favourite authors when it comes forms of government

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/874602.Ursula_K_Le_Guin

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Sending tips with @tipU - how to guide :)

What this does is raise the stakes if you will and make the economy more susceptible to disturbances.

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Thank you for this analysis.

I like your blog, I’m adding it to my read list.

Keep up the good work!

Hi again @marcocasario

Can I ask you for little favour? I joined contest called "Community of the week" with project I manage and I would be grateful if you could RESTEEM it and help me get some exposure and drop some encouraging comment :)

Link to my post: on steemit or on steempeak

Thanks :)
Yours, Piotr

Sure thing =}

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