GDP in the 4th quarter was revised slightly down to 2.6% in the third estimate released today. The initial estimate of GDI for Q4 is -1.1%. Something to keep an eye on. Another divergence between GDP and GDI. Technically they should be equal, but measurement differences cause a gap.
For Q3, GDP was 3.2%. GDI was revised up significantly to 2.8%. So the gap has closed for the third quarter.
If we just look at the average of GDP and GDI this past year (GDO), it was -0.4%, -0.7%, 3%, and 0.7%.
As I've said before both GDP and GDI undergo significant revisions in the years ahead. We won't know the true numbers for either for several years from now. When we actually think of recessions it is better to think holistically about all the economic indicators not just GDP.
The first estimate for Q1 2023 will come in less than a month. Currently it is forecast to come in at a healthy 3.2%.