The probability we were in a recession in March was 0.7% according to the model that uses the coincident economic indicators. Here's how the model has looked since January 2022. We only reached a high point of 1.3% this past December. Ironically enough during all that talk of "two negative GDP quarters" the recession probability was a whopping 0% in July 2022.
This model has a fairly decent track record. Generally speaking after three months of a probability of 80+% a recession has started. It doesn't really have a high false positive rate once the probability gets above ~10%. We haven't gotten close to that at any point in the last year.