Quite a divergence between the blue chip consensus estimates and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP. As of last week, the blue chip consensus is expecting Q2 GDP of 2%, and as of today the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is expecting -1.5%.
Q1 GDP was -1.6%.
GDPNow isn't gospel, it does miss fwiw. It tries to give a real-time forecast for GDP using economic data, given the lag in GDP reporting.
However retail sales for June rose 1%, higher than the 0.8% estimate. Job growth is still strong as well. Unemployment is stable and low. Wage growth jumped 6.7% in June on the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. If we just looked at the labor market, recession risks appear quite low.
Some mixed signals on the economy for sure.
We'll get the actual Q2 GDP number at the end of the month and get to see which is right.
It is correct that the ISM employment surveys are more pessimistic than the BLS data. My bias is to preference the latter though.
All that said, job growth can change really quickly if we do enter a recession if you look back at some historical recessions. But generally you get some indication of a labor slowdown before.